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Elgin vs Clyde Result & Analysis

Date: 06/01/2018
Time: 00:00
Final 2-1
Elgin
Elgin
Vs
59%
23%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Clyde
Clyde
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Elgin are tipped to win, with a 59% chance of victory, 23% for a draw and 18% for Clyde. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, but the most probable total is two goals, with a 23% chance of that outcome. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9% probability. Elgin, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded, while Clyde, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.08 scored and 1.92 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 86.8%, Over 1.5 at 82.1%, Under 25.5 fouls at 77.5%, Under 4.5 cards at 74.0% and Over 8.5 corners at 71.0%. Elgin’s recent unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 4-0 win over Stirling, contrasts with Clyde’s recent draw after a 3-3 stalemate with Spartans, setting the stage for a likely home victory.

Results analysis

The Pythia model’s prediction proved spot on as Elgin secured a 2-1 victory over Clyde, extending their unbeaten run in the last five matches. The model had picked a home win with a 59% probability, and that call was correct. Its suggested selections also performed well: Under 5.5 cards hit at 86.8%, Over 1.5 hit at 82.1%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 77.5%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 74.0%, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 71.0%. The match’s most likely scoreline was 2-1, matching the final result, and the model’s overall accuracy was reinforced by these outcomes.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Elgin win✓ Hit
58.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Clyde win✗ Miss
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-720W42W02L31W51W02L11D03L14L07LH·STE21/10A·CLY28/10H·PET04/11A·COW11/11H·BER25/11A·ANN02/12H·EDI09/12A·MON16/12A·STE23/12A·PET02/01
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.771.501.001.252.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.331.871.500.881.143.00
vs Weaker (15)1.401.671.501.171.332.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ClydeClyde

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D23L14L24L11D11D00D00D00D00DH·COW23/09A·MON30/09H·PET21/10H·ELG28/10A·STE04/11H·STI11/11A·ANN25/11H·MON02/12H·BER23/12H·ANN02/01
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.731.331.611.081.92
vs Stronger (30)1.231.731.331.611.081.92
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1 ✓
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
6.7%
3-0
6.3%
0-0
5.6%
2-2
5.3%
Elgin goals ↓
Clyde goals →
01234
05.6%3.9%2.6%0.9%0.2%
18.4%11%5.2%1.8%0.5%
29.4%9.9%5.3%1.8%0.5%
36.3%6.7%3.5%1.2%0.3%
43.2%3.4%1.8%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Clyde goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Montrose
2.14
Peterhead
2.11
Stirling
1.53
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Clyde
1.42
Elgin
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.31
Berwick
1.03
Edinburgh City
0.83
Cowdenbeath
0.61
Elgin is 0.06 points worse than Clyde in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Peterhead
2.19
Stirling
1.69
Montrose
1.67
Stenhousemuir
1.56
Elgin
1.50
Clyde
1.44
Annan Athletic
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.03
Berwick
0.86
Cowdenbeath
0.64
Elgin is 0.06 goals better than Clyde in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.97
Peterhead
1.08
Annan Athletic
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Clyde
1.39
Stirling
1.44
Cowdenbeath
1.56
Berwick
1.64
Elgin
1.69
Edinburgh City
1.72
Elgin is 0.31 goals worse than Clyde in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

ElginElgin

For 4.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.5

🚩 Corners

13025211657346846228226471311101012810410A·PETA·STEA·MONH·EDIA·ANNH·BERA·COWH·PETA·CLYH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.8

🟨 Cards

804111221621272434234233837675A·PETA·STEA·MONH·EDIA·ANNH·BERA·COWH·PETA·CLYH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 12.8 · Total 22.9

⚠️ Fouls

34016129155781311131181013161861591428241221241923342123A·PETA·STEA·MONH·EDIA·ANNH·BERA·COWH·PETA·CLYH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ClydeClyde

For 6.3 · Against 6.3 · Total 12.6

🚩 Corners

220878454357751322585615715129814184131122H·ANNH·BERH·MONA·ANNH·STIA·STEH·ELGH·PETA·MONH·COW
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2

🟨 Cards

905422121311434121329412427535H·ANNH·BERH·MONA·ANNH·STIA·STEH·ELGH·PETA·MONH·COW
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.9

⚠️ Fouls

300121114168101314118531561515121011102330182719821302221H·ANNH·BERH·MONA·ANNH·STIA·STEH·ELGH·PETA·MONH·COW
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.710.19.41.61.12.023.122.223.7
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (23)9.710.59.01.51.11.822.123.820.8
vs Weaker (27)9.89.89.81.61.22.124.020.826.6
% over line67%75%60%20%12%27%56%50%60%
% under line33%25%40%80%88%73%44%50%40%
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ClydeClyde

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.411.211.71.31.80.823.225.619.3
vs Stronger (50)11.411.211.71.31.80.823.225.619.3
vs Similar (0)---------
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line56%50%67%20%30%9%56%60%50%
% under line44%50%33%80%70%91%44%40%50%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Clyde
11.4
Stirling
10.2
Cowdenbeath
9.9
Stenhousemuir
9.8
Berwick
9.8
Elgin
9.7
Peterhead
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.3
Montrose
9.2
Annan Athletic
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Elgin
4.3
Clyde
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Peterhead
4.0
Cowdenbeath
3.6
Berwick
3.4
Stirling
3.2
Edinburgh City
3.1
Montrose
2.5
Stenhousemuir
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.4
Annan Athletic
25.4
Edinburgh City
24.5
Stirling
23.6
Cowdenbeath
23.5
Clyde
23.2
Elgin
23.1
Berwick
21.9
Montrose
20.9
Stenhousemuir
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.0%
Under 9.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.6%
Under 3.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
53.1%
Under 21.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D01L20W10W01L00D01L02L01LH·STE21/10A·CLY28/10H·PET04/11A·COW11/11H·BER25/11A·ANN02/12H·EDI09/12A·MON16/12A·STE23/12A·PET02/01
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.430.500.560.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.600.600.620.500.570.71
vs Weaker (15)0.400.730.170.500.560.89
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ClydeClyde

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L11D11D01L00D00D00D00D00DH·COW23/09A·MON30/09H·PET21/10H·ELG28/10A·STE04/11H·STI11/11A·ANN25/11H·MON02/12H·BER23/12H·ANN02/01
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.390.670.671.00
vs Stronger (30)0.500.800.390.670.671.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-620W31W01L11D41W01L11D02L12L06LH·STE21/10A·CLY28/10H·PET04/11A·COW11/11H·BER25/11A·ANN02/12H·EDI09/12A·MON16/12A·STE23/12A·PET02/01
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.101.070.500.691.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.731.270.880.380.572.29
vs Weaker (15)1.000.931.330.670.781.11
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ClydeClyde

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W03L13L10W11D00D00D00D00DH·COW23/09A·MON30/09H·PET21/10H·ELG28/10A·STE04/11H·STI11/11A·ANN25/11H·MON02/12H·BER23/12H·ANN02/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.930.940.940.420.92
vs Stronger (30)0.730.930.940.940.420.92
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards86.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.582.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls77.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards74.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners71.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
ELG wins
0
Draws
4
CLY wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elgin vs Clyde · H/A from ELG
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/17AClyde Vs ELG2-4
19/08/17HELG Vs Clyde3-2
15/04/17AClyde Vs ELG3-2
18/02/17HELG Vs Clyde4-1
05/11/16AClyde Vs ELG2-1
17/09/16HELG Vs Clyde0-2
12/03/16AClyde Vs ELG1-0
13/02/16HELG Vs Clyde1-0

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/01/18APeterhead Vs ELG7-0
23/12/17AStenhousemuir Vs ELG4-1
16/12/17AMontrose Vs ELG3-0
09/12/17HELG Vs Edinburgh City1-1
02/12/17AAnnan Athletic Vs ELG2-0
25/11/17HELG Vs Berwick5-1
11/11/17ACowdenbeath Vs ELG1-3
04/11/17HELG Vs Peterhead0-2
28/10/17AClyde Vs ELG2-4
21/10/17HELG Vs Stenhousemuir2-0

ClydeClyde

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/01/18HCLY Vs Annan Athletic0-0
23/12/17HCLY Vs Berwick0-0
02/12/17HCLY Vs Montrose0-0
25/11/17AAnnan Athletic Vs CLY0-0
11/11/17HCLY Vs Stirling1-1
04/11/17AStenhousemuir Vs CLY1-1
28/10/17HCLY Vs Elgin2-4
21/10/17HCLY Vs Peterhead1-4
30/09/17AMontrose Vs CLY3-2
23/09/17HCLY Vs Cowdenbeath1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.38
HomeWWLWD1.62
AwayWLLLL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%35%
AVG goals3.383.213.54
Over 1.5 %86%88%85%
Over 2.5 %64%54%73%
Over 3.5 %48%50%46%
Scored1.822.001.65
Conceded1.561.211.88
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners9.7210.129.40
Cards4.333.385.10
Clyde
Clyde
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 0 Wins / 7 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDDD0.96
HomeLDDDD1.26
AwayLWLDD0.61
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%30%13%
AVG goals3.083.153.00
Over 1.5 %76%81%70%
Over 2.5 %56%59%52%
Over 3.5 %40%41%39%
Scored1.301.521.04
Conceded1.781.631.96
BTTS66%78%52%
Clean Sheet16%15%17%
Corners11.3811.2011.67
Cards4.124.803.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MontroseMontrose3677
64%
2.1
6035+25
2.6
69%
50%
28%
9.2
42%
3.1
36%
22.4
56%
0
0001.71.0
-
2PeterheadPeterhead3676
67%
2.1
7939+40
3.3
75%
61%
39%
9.4
42%
3.7
56%
26.9
86%
0
0002.21.1
-
3StirlingStirling3655
44%
1.5
6152+9
3.1
83%
67%
39%
9.7
50%
3.4
33%
23.4
67%
0
0001.71.4
-
4StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3654
42%
1.5
5647+9
2.9
86%
53%
31%
10.2
47%
3.0
36%
20.3
39%
0
0001.61.3
-
5ClydeClyde3651
39%
1.4
5250+2
2.8
78%
61%
31%
10.3
50%
4.0
58%
22.4
58%
0
0001.41.4
-
6ElginElgin3649
39%
1.4
5461-7
3.2
89%
61%
39%
10.1
64%
3.8
50%
22.0
50%
0
0001.51.7
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3647
33%
1.3
4941+8
2.5
69%
42%
25%
8.9
33%
3.8
47%
23.9
75%
0
0001.41.1
-
8
B
Berwick
3637
25%
1.0
3159-28
2.5
64%
47%
33%
9.6
50%
3.1
36%
22.0
50%
0
0000.91.6
-
9Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3630
19%
0.8
3762-25
2.8
81%
58%
28%
9.8
47%
3.2
47%
23.6
58%
0
0001.01.7
-
10CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3622
11%
0.6
2356-33
2.2
67%
33%
19%
8.7
36%
3.9
56%
23.6
61%
0
0000.61.6
-
Scotland: League Two 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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