Elgin are tipped to win, with a 59% chance of victory, 23% for a draw and 18% for Clyde. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, but the most probable total is two goals, with a 23% chance of that outcome. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9% probability. Elgin, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded, while Clyde, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.08 scored and 1.92 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 86.8%, Over 1.5 at 82.1%, Under 25.5 fouls at 77.5%, Under 4.5 cards at 74.0% and Over 8.5 corners at 71.0%. Elgin’s recent unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 4-0 win over Stirling, contrasts with Clyde’s recent draw after a 3-3 stalemate with Spartans, setting the stage for a likely home victory.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved spot on as Elgin secured a 2-1 victory over Clyde, extending their unbeaten run in the last five matches. The model had picked a home win with a 59% probability, and that call was correct. Its suggested selections also performed well: Under 5.5 cards hit at 86.8%, Over 1.5 hit at 82.1%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 77.5%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 74.0%, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 71.0%. The match’s most likely scoreline was 2-1, matching the final result, and the model’s overall accuracy was reinforced by these outcomes.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elgin win✓ Hit
58.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Clyde win✗ Miss
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.77
1.50
1.00
1.25
2.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.87
1.50
0.88
1.14
3.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.40
1.67
1.50
1.17
1.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.73
1.33
1.61
1.08
1.92
vs Stronger (30)
1.23
1.73
1.33
1.61
1.08
1.92
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1 ✓
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
6.7%
3-0
6.3%
0-0
5.6%
2-2
5.3%
Elgin goals ↓
Clyde goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
3.9%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
1
8.4%
11%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.9%
5.3%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.3%
6.7%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
4
3.2%
3.4%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Clyde goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Montrose
2.14
Peterhead
2.11
Stirling
1.53
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Clyde
1.42
Elgin
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.31
Berwick
1.03
Edinburgh City
0.83
Cowdenbeath
0.61
Elgin is 0.06 points worse than Clyde in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterhead
2.19
Stirling
1.69
Montrose
1.67
Stenhousemuir
1.56
Elgin
1.50
Clyde
1.44
Annan Athletic
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.03
Berwick
0.86
Cowdenbeath
0.64
Elgin is 0.06 goals better than Clyde in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.97
Peterhead
1.08
Annan Athletic
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Clyde
1.39
Stirling
1.44
Cowdenbeath
1.56
Berwick
1.64
Elgin
1.69
Edinburgh City
1.72
Elgin is 0.31 goals worse than Clyde in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Elgin
For 4.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 12.8 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Clyde
For 6.3 · Against 6.3 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.1
9.4
1.6
1.1
2.0
23.1
22.2
23.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
9.7
10.5
9.0
1.5
1.1
1.8
22.1
23.8
20.8
vs Weaker (27)
9.8
9.8
9.8
1.6
1.2
2.1
24.0
20.8
26.6
% over line
67%
75%
60%
20%
12%
27%
56%
50%
60%
% under line
33%
25%
40%
80%
88%
73%
44%
50%
40%
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.2
11.7
1.3
1.8
0.8
23.2
25.6
19.3
vs Stronger (50)
11.4
11.2
11.7
1.3
1.8
0.8
23.2
25.6
19.3
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
50%
67%
20%
30%
9%
56%
60%
50%
% under line
44%
50%
33%
80%
70%
91%
44%
40%
50%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Clyde
11.4
Stirling
10.2
Cowdenbeath
9.9
Stenhousemuir
9.8
Berwick
9.8
Elgin
9.7
Peterhead
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.3
Montrose
9.2
Annan Athletic
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Elgin
4.3
Clyde
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Peterhead
4.0
Cowdenbeath
3.6
Berwick
3.4
Stirling
3.2
Edinburgh City
3.1
Montrose
2.5
Stenhousemuir
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.4
Annan Athletic
25.4
Edinburgh City
24.5
Stirling
23.6
Cowdenbeath
23.5
Clyde
23.2
Elgin
23.1
Berwick
21.9
Montrose
20.9
Stenhousemuir
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.0%
Under 9.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.6%
Under 3.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
53.1%
Under 21.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.43
0.50
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.60
0.62
0.50
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (15)
0.40
0.73
0.17
0.50
0.56
0.89
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.39
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (30)
0.50
0.80
0.39
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
1.07
0.50
0.69
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.73
1.27
0.88
0.38
0.57
2.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.93
1.33
0.67
0.78
1.11
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.94
0.94
0.42
0.92
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
0.93
0.94
0.94
0.42
0.92
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →