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Elgin vs Cowdenbeath Result & Analysis

Date: 29/10/2016
Time: 00:00
Final 3-1
Elgin
Elgin
Vs
47%
25%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elgin win✓ Hit
47.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W30W01L23L42W02L40W02L21W50WA·COW06/08H·EDI13/08H·ARB20/08A·FOR27/08A·BER10/09H·CLY17/09A·STI24/09H·ANN01/10A·EDI08/10A·MON15/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.071.330.931.931.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.720.891.330.782.111.00
vs Weaker (12)1.501.331.331.171.671.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L01L34L20W35L21W02L00D02L22DA·STR30/04H·ELG06/08A·FOR13/08H·EDI20/08A·CLY27/08A·MON10/09H·BER17/09A·ARB24/09H·STI01/10H·ANN15/10← League OneLeague Two →
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.731.251.751.291.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.171.441.401.500.881.38
vs Weaker (12)1.422.171.002.171.832.17
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.4%
1-2
7.0%
2-0
7.0%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
3-1 ✓
5.6%
0-0
5.4%
Elgin goals ↓
Cowdenbeath goals →
01234
05.4%4.8%3.9%1.8%0.6%
16.7%11%7.0%3.1%1.1%
27.0%9.4%6.3%2.8%1.0%
34.2%5.6%3.8%1.7%0.6%
41.9%2.5%1.7%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Cowdenbeath goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arbroath
1.83
Forfar
1.78
Annan Athletic
1.61
Montrose
1.44
Elgin
1.42
Stirling
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Berwick
1.11
Clyde
1.06
Cowdenbeath
0.97
Elgin is 0.44 points better than Cowdenbeath in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 0.97).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Forfar
1.92
Elgin
1.86
Arbroath
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.69
Berwick
1.39
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Montrose
1.22
Cowdenbeath
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.06
Elgin is 0.75 goals better than Cowdenbeath in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.11).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
1.00
Edinburgh City
1.25
Elgin
1.31
Forfar
1.36
Montrose
1.47
Cowdenbeath
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Stirling
1.64
Clyde
1.78
Berwick
1.81
Elgin is 0.22 goals better than Cowdenbeath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.53).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ElginElgin

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (46)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (28)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (18)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (45)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (28)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (17)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Not collected for this league yet.

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Not collected for this league yet.

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W00D21W21W02L30W01L20W30WA·COW06/08H·EDI13/08H·ARB20/08A·FOR27/08A·BER10/09H·CLY17/09A·STI24/09H·ANN01/10A·EDI08/10A·MON15/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.500.730.471.000.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.780.390.670.330.890.44
vs Weaker (12)1.000.670.830.671.170.67
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D12L10W23L11D02L00D01L02LA·STR30/04H·ELG06/08A·FOR13/08H·EDI20/08A·CLY27/08A·MON10/09H·BER17/09A·ARB24/09H·STI01/10H·ANN15/10← League OneLeague Two →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.620.750.640.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.610.780.700.700.500.88
vs Weaker (12)0.670.920.500.830.831.00
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L02L21W00D10W01L01L20WA·COW06/08H·EDI13/08H·ARB20/08A·FOR27/08A·BER10/09H·CLY17/09A·STI24/09H·ANN01/10A·EDI08/10A·MON15/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.600.470.930.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.940.500.670.441.220.56
vs Weaker (12)0.500.670.500.500.500.83
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L22D10W12L10W00D00D01L20WA·STR30/04H·ELG06/08A·FOR13/08H·EDI20/08A·CLY27/08A·MON10/09H·BER17/09A·ARB24/09H·STI01/10H·ANN15/10← League OneLeague Two →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.900.621.000.640.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.560.670.700.800.380.50
vs Weaker (12)0.751.250.501.331.001.17
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (15)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (5)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (7)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
ELG wins
0
Draws
0
COW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elgin vs Cowdenbeath · H/A from ELG
DateH/AGameScore
06/08/16ACowdenbeath Vs ELG0-1

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/16AMontrose Vs ELG0-5
08/10/16AEdinburgh City Vs ELG1-2
01/10/16HELG Vs Annan Athletic0-2
24/09/16AStirling Vs ELG0-4
17/09/16HELG Vs Clyde0-2
10/09/16ABerwick Vs ELG2-4
27/08/16AForfar Vs ELG3-2
20/08/16HELG Vs Arbroath0-1
13/08/16HELG Vs Edinburgh City3-0
06/08/16ACowdenbeath Vs ELG0-1

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/16HCOW Vs Annan Athletic2-2
01/10/16HCOW Vs Stirling0-2
24/09/16AArbroath Vs COW0-0
17/09/16HCOW Vs Berwick0-2
10/09/16AMontrose Vs COW1-2
27/08/16AClyde Vs COW5-3
20/08/16HCOW Vs Edinburgh City2-0
13/08/16AForfar Vs COW4-3
06/08/16HCOW Vs Elgin0-1
30/04/16AStranraer Vs COW1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.67
HomeWWLLL2.00
AwayLWWWW1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%59%42%
AVG goals2.982.683.25
Over 1.5 %80%77%83%
Over 2.5 %52%41%62%
Over 3.5 %39%32%46%
Scored1.741.771.71
Conceded1.240.911.54
BTTS48%45%50%
Clean Sheet37%41%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLD1.04
HomeLWLLD1.22
AwayLLLWD0.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%35%23%
AVG goals3.272.873.68
Over 1.5 %78%78%77%
Over 2.5 %62%61%64%
Over 3.5 %40%35%45%
Scored1.291.351.23
Conceded1.981.522.45
BTTS53%52%55%
Clean Sheet24%26%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArbroathArbroath3666
50%
1.8
6336+27
2.8
72%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.81.0
-
2ForfarForfar3664
50%
1.8
6949+20
3.3
83%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3658
50%
1.6
6158+3
3.3
78%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
4MontroseMontrose3652
39%
1.4
4453-9
2.7
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
5ElginElgin3651
39%
1.4
6747+20
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
6StirlingStirling3647
33%
1.3
5059-9
3.0
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
7Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3643
31%
1.2
3845-7
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
8
B
Berwick
3640
28%
1.1
5065-15
3.2
83%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
9ClydeClyde3638
28%
1.1
4964-15
3.1
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
10CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3635
25%
1.0
4055-15
2.6
78%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
Scotland: League Two 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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