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Elgin vs Cowdenbeath Result & Analysis

Date: 05/08/2017
Time: 00:00
Final 1-1
Elgin
Elgin
Vs
49%
26%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elgin win✗ Miss
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D11D03L22D11D23L22D23L00DA·ANN11/03A·COW14/03H·FOR18/03A·EDI25/03H·BER01/04H·MON08/04A·CLY15/04H·STI22/04A·ARB29/04H·COW06/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.302.201.271.601.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)2.310.922.290.712.331.17
vs Weaker (17)1.591.592.121.751.111.44
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L20W01L10W11D30W12L11D00DH·ELG14/03H·MON18/03A·CLY21/03A·ANN25/03H·CLY01/04A·EDI08/04A·STI15/04H·ARB22/04H·FOR29/04A·ELG06/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.400.871.471.131.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.851.460.671.331.001.57
vs Weaker (17)1.121.351.001.561.251.12
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.2%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
6.7%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
3-1
5.5%
Elgin goals ↓
Cowdenbeath goals →
01234
06.4%5.3%3.9%1.6%0.5%
18.1%12%6.7%2.7%0.8%
27.9%9.6%5.8%2.3%0.7%
34.6%5.5%3.3%1.3%0.4%
42.0%2.4%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Cowdenbeath goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Montrose
2.14
Peterhead
2.11
Stirling
1.53
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Clyde
1.42
Elgin
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.31
Berwick
1.03
Edinburgh City
0.83
Cowdenbeath
0.61
Elgin is 0.75 points better than Cowdenbeath in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 0.61).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Peterhead
2.19
Stirling
1.69
Montrose
1.67
Stenhousemuir
1.56
Elgin
1.50
Clyde
1.44
Annan Athletic
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.03
Berwick
0.86
Cowdenbeath
0.64
Elgin is 0.86 goals better than Cowdenbeath in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.64).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.97
Peterhead
1.08
Annan Athletic
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Clyde
1.39
Stirling
1.44
Cowdenbeath
1.56
Berwick
1.64
Elgin
1.69
Edinburgh City
1.72
Elgin is 0.14 goals worse than Cowdenbeath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.56).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ElginElgin

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (25)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (25)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Not collected for this league yet.

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Not collected for this league yet.

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
83.4%
Under 9.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
22.4%
Under 21.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W00D01L12L10W20W00D01L00DA·ANN11/03A·COW14/03H·FOR18/03A·EDI25/03H·BER01/04H·MON08/04A·CLY15/04H·STI22/04A·ARB29/04H·COW06/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.371.000.271.000.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.080.230.860.291.330.17
vs Weaker (17)0.940.471.120.250.780.67
Clean sheet %70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L10W00D00D01L20W01L00D00DH·ELG14/03H·MON18/03A·CLY21/03A·ANN25/03H·CLY01/04A·EDI08/04A·STI15/04H·ARB22/04H·FOR29/04A·ELG06/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.600.200.670.400.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.150.690.170.500.140.86
vs Weaker (17)0.410.530.220.780.620.25
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L11D02L10W01L03L22D22D00DA·ANN11/03A·COW14/03H·FOR18/03A·EDI25/03H·BER01/04H·MON08/04A·CLY15/04H·STI22/04A·ARB29/04H·COW06/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.931.201.000.600.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.230.691.430.431.001.00
vs Weaker (17)0.651.121.001.500.330.78
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L10W01L10W10W10W11D11D00DH·ELG14/03H·MON18/03A·CLY21/03A·ANN25/03H·CLY01/04A·EDI08/04A·STI15/04H·ARB22/04H·FOR29/04A·ELG06/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.670.800.730.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.690.770.500.830.860.71
vs Weaker (17)0.710.820.780.780.620.88
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls94.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards94.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners90.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls88.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards86.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners83.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.580.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls77.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 10.5 corners74.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards72.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
ELG wins
2
Draws
0
COW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elgin vs Cowdenbeath · H/A from ELG
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/17HELG Vs Cowdenbeath0-0
14/03/17ACowdenbeath Vs ELG1-1
29/10/16HELG Vs Cowdenbeath3-1
06/08/16ACowdenbeath Vs ELG0-1

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/17HELG Vs Cowdenbeath0-0
29/04/17AArbroath Vs ELG3-2
22/04/17HELG Vs Stirling2-2
15/04/17AClyde Vs ELG3-2
08/04/17HELG Vs Montrose1-1
01/04/17HELG Vs Berwick2-2
25/03/17AEdinburgh City Vs ELG3-0
18/03/17HELG Vs Forfar1-1
14/03/17ACowdenbeath Vs ELG1-1
11/03/17AAnnan Athletic Vs ELG1-0

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/17AElgin Vs COW0-0
29/04/17HCOW Vs Forfar1-1
22/04/17HCOW Vs Arbroath1-2
15/04/17AStirling Vs COW0-3
08/04/17AEdinburgh City Vs COW1-1
01/04/17HCOW Vs Clyde1-0
25/03/17AAnnan Athletic Vs COW1-0
21/03/17AClyde Vs COW0-2
18/03/17HCOW Vs Montrose0-2
14/03/17HCOW Vs Elgin1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 0 Wins / 6 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLD1.42
HomeDDDDD1.65
AwayLDLLL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%33%
AVG goals2.943.122.75
Over 1.5 %76%85%67%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %42%50%33%
Scored1.701.921.46
Conceded1.241.191.29
BTTS54%65%42%
Clean Sheet28%23%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDD1.00
HomeDLWLD0.84
AwayWLDWD1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%24%28%
AVG goals2.722.522.92
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %44%36%52%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.120.921.32
Conceded1.601.601.60
BTTS54%44%64%
Clean Sheet22%20%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MontroseMontrose3677
64%
2.1
6035+25
2.6
69%
50%
28%
9.2
42%
3.1
36%
22.4
56%
0
0001.71.0
-
2PeterheadPeterhead3676
67%
2.1
7939+40
3.3
75%
61%
39%
9.4
42%
3.7
56%
26.9
86%
0
0002.21.1
-
3StirlingStirling3655
44%
1.5
6152+9
3.1
83%
67%
39%
9.7
50%
3.4
33%
23.4
67%
0
0001.71.4
-
4StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3654
42%
1.5
5647+9
2.9
86%
53%
31%
10.2
47%
3.0
36%
20.3
39%
0
0001.61.3
-
5ClydeClyde3651
39%
1.4
5250+2
2.8
78%
61%
31%
10.3
50%
4.0
58%
22.4
58%
0
0001.41.4
-
6ElginElgin3649
39%
1.4
5461-7
3.2
89%
61%
39%
10.1
64%
3.8
50%
22.0
50%
0
0001.51.7
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3647
33%
1.3
4941+8
2.5
69%
42%
25%
8.9
33%
3.8
47%
23.9
75%
0
0001.41.1
-
8
B
Berwick		3637
25%
1.0
3159-28
2.5
64%
47%
33%
9.6
50%
3.1
36%
22.0
50%
0
0000.91.6
-
9Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3630
19%
0.8
3762-25
2.8
81%
58%
28%
9.8
47%
3.2
47%
23.6
58%
0
0001.01.7
-
10CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3622
11%
0.6
2356-33
2.2
67%
33%
19%
8.7
36%
3.9
56%
23.6
61%
0
0000.61.6
-
Scotland: League Two 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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