This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.70
1.25
1.69
1.21
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.58
1.58
1.58
1.17
1.58
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
2.17
0.25
2.00
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
10% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.9%
0-0
7.8%
0-1
7.4%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
5.6%
Elgin goals ↓
Peterhead goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
7.4%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
1
8.1%
13%
7.9%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.6%
8.6%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.1%
4.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Peterhead goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.60
ST Johnstone
2.60
Partick
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.40
Rangers
2.33
ST Mirren
2.25
Airdrie United
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Kilmarnock
2.20
Motherwell
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Ayr Utd
1.80
Morton
1.80
Celtic
1.75
Ross County
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Inverness CT
1.50
Hibernian
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Dundee
1.50
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Raith Rovers
1.50
East Kilbride
1.50
Stranraer
1.25
Clyde
1.25
Arbroath
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Montrose
0.75
Queen of the South
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.33
Annan Athletic
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
Dundee Utd
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Peterhead
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Elgin
0.00
Elgin and Peterhead are level in average points per game (both 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.40
Raith Rovers
3.25
ST Johnstone
3.00
Falkirk
3.00
Ayr Utd
2.80
ST Mirren
2.75
Ross County
2.75
East Kilbride
2.75
Celtic
2.50
Rangers
2.33
Inverness CT
2.25
Queen's Park
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Partick
2.17
Airdrie United
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Morton
2.00
Kilmarnock
1.80
Alloa Athletic
1.80
Aberdeen
1.50
Arbroath
1.50
Montrose
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Cove Rangers
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Peterhead
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Annan Athletic
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Forfar
0.75
East Fife
0.67
Dumbarton
0.50
Stranraer
0.50
Elgin
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.25
Brechin
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Elgin is 0.50 goals worse than Peterhead in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.40
ST Johnstone
0.40
Aberdeen
0.50
Cove Rangers
0.50
Kilmarnock
0.60
Dundee
0.75
Stranraer
0.75
Airdrie United
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Ayr Utd
1.00
Partick
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
ST Mirren
1.12
Celtic
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.40
Spartans
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Forfar
1.50
Morton
1.60
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Dundee Utd
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Clyde
2.00
Raith Rovers
2.25
Peterhead
2.25
Stirling
2.25
Kelty Hearts
2.33
Montrose
2.50
East Kilbride
3.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
Brechin
4.25
Elgin
4.75
Annan Athletic
5.25
Elgin is 2.50 goals worse than Peterhead in terms of goals conceded per game (4.75 vs 2.25).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
63%
ST Mirren
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Elgin
For 4.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Peterhead
For 5.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 16.2 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.2
10.8
3.4
3.6
3.1
22.5
21.8
23.3
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
9.0
9.8
8.2
2.8
3.0
2.4
23.1
22.8
23.4
vs Weaker (33)
11.0
10.3
11.7
3.8
3.9
3.6
22.3
21.4
23.3
% over line
62%
60%
65%
48%
58%
38%
57%
50%
65%
% under line
38%
40%
35%
52%
42%
62%
43%
50%
35%
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.1
9.2
4.4
4.5
4.4
27.3
28.0
26.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
9.8
10.2
9.5
4.3
4.2
4.4
27.0
26.6
27.3
vs Weaker (14)
7.4
5.6
8.7
4.8
5.3
4.4
28.3
32.4
25.4
% over line
41%
41%
41%
72%
73%
71%
82%
91%
73%
% under line
59%
59%
59%
28%
27%
29%
18%
9%
27%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Queen's Park
12.0
ST Mirren
11.2
Morton
11.0
Stirling
11.0
Ross County
10.9
Hibernian
10.8
Celtic
10.7
Dumbarton
10.5
Dundee Utd
10.4
Partick
10.4
East Kilbride
10.4
Rangers
10.4
ST Johnstone
10.4
Stranraer
10.4
Elgin
10.3
Airdrie United
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
Livingston
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Heart Of Midlothian
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.9
Falkirk
9.9
Dundee
9.9
Clyde
9.7
East Fife
9.7
Arbroath
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.4
Kelty Hearts
9.4
Inverness CT
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.2
Dunfermline
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Peterhead
9.0
Forfar
8.9
Stenhousemuir
8.6
Montrose
8.4
Motherwell
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.1
Peterhead
5.0
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Stenhousemuir
4.9
Aberdeen
4.8
Ayr Utd
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Morton
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.4
Partick
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Forfar
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.3
Clyde
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.3
Livingston
4.3
Spartans
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
ST Johnstone
4.2
Falkirk
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dundee Utd
4.0
Celtic
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Montrose
3.7
Arbroath
3.6
Dundee
3.6
East Fife
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Dumbarton
3.5
ST Mirren
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4
Inverness CT
3.2
Cove Rangers
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.4
East Kilbride
26.4
Motherwell
25.9
Rangers
25.8
Aberdeen
25.7
Stenhousemuir
25.2
Livingston
25.0
Kilmarnock
24.7
Falkirk
24.5
Forfar
24.1
Edinburgh City
23.9
Heart Of Midlothian
23.5
East Fife
22.8
Elgin
22.7
Hibernian
22.6
ST Johnstone
22.6
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Montrose
22.3
Dundee
22.2
Annan Athletic
22.2
Stranraer
22.1
Clyde
22.0
ST Mirren
22.0
Dundee Utd
21.8
Morton
21.8
Inverness CT
21.8
Celtic
21.7
Ross County
21.5
Dunfermline
21.3
Cove Rangers
20.9
Arbroath
20.8
Stirling
20.8
Spartans
20.5
Dumbarton
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Airdrie United
20.0
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.6%
Under 9.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
68.9%
Under 3.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.0%
Under 21.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Elgin or Draw✗ Miss
66.7%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
33%
covers Elgin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin or Peterhead✓ Hit
71.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
33%
covers Elgin + Peterhead
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Peterhead✓ Hit
61.4%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
33%
covers Draw + Peterhead
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Elgin over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.8%
Under
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Elgin, so a minus line means Elgin give that many goals of a start and Peterhead receive them. At -1, Elgin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Elgin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Elgin)Actual: Peterhead
Elgin -2
7.0%
Draw -2
11.8%
Peterhead +2
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Elgin)Actual: Peterhead
Elgin -1
18.8%
Draw -1
19.9%
Peterhead +1
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Elgin)Actual: Peterhead
Elgin +1
66.7%
Draw +1
18.1%
Peterhead -1
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Elgin)Actual: Draw
Elgin +2
84.8%
Draw +2
9.9%
Peterhead -2
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.73
0.53
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.29
1.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.64
0.55
0.58
0.25
0.70
0.90
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.67
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
0.80
0.93
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.57
0.67
2.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.95
0.64
0.83
0.58
1.10
0.70
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.03
0.69
1.19
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.92
0.83
1.08
0.67
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
1.50
0.25
1.50
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →