PythiaFootballBETA
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are expected to prevail, coming off a recent defeat to Shakhtar Donetsk. The home side has struggled to find consistency, but their recent form note suggests they're due for an improvement.
The model predicts a 52% chance of a home win, a 27% probability of a draw, and a 21% chance of an away win. The most likely match result is indeed a home win, with an average of 2.6 goals expected. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13% probability.
At home, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have scored an average of 1.67 goals and conceded 0.83. In contrast, Obolon'-Brovar, when away, have scored 0.86 goals and conceded 2.57 against stronger opponents. The model's selection is the home win, with a suggested pick of Over 21.5 fouls at 75.8%, Under 3.5 at 74.3%, and Over 1.5 at 73.8% with a 7% edge.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have a 52% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and a 21% chance of losing. The model's selections have the following probabilities: Over 21.5 fouls (75.8%), Under 3.5 (74.3%), and Over 1.5 (73.8%).
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's win extends their run of inconsistent form, with the team coming off a defeat to Shakhtar Donetsk. The final score was 3-0, confirming the home win, the actual result. The model correctly predicted the home team as the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 52%. The model's selection, a home win, was correct.
The model's selection of under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 74.3%, while over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 73.8%. The most likely score was 2-0, with a probability of 10%.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.47 | 1.07 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.88 | 2.12 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.08 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Obolon'-Brovar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.63 | 0.88 | 1.62 | 0.86 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 0.79 | 2.16 | 0.90 | 2.30 | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
| Obolon'-Brovar goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Epitsentr DunayivtsiObolon'-BrovarEpitsentr Dunayivtsi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 24.1 | 25.6 | 21.2 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 12.0 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 16.5 | 16.0 | 17.0 |
| vs Similar (17) | 8.7 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 24.7 | 25.6 | 22.5 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 9.5 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 30.8 | 32.0 | 27.0 |
| % over line | 53% | 50% | 60% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 60% | 70% | 40% |
| % under line | 47% | 50% | 40% | 90% | 88% | 92% | 40% | 30% | 60% |
Obolon'-Brovar| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 25.9 | 26.4 | 25.4 |
| vs Stronger (30) | 8.3 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 24.2 | 23.6 | 24.7 |
| vs Similar (20) | 10.1 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 28.8 | 30.0 | 27.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 41% | 43% | 38% | 34% | 38% | 31% | 89% | 93% | 85% |
| % under line | 59% | 57% | 62% | 66% | 62% | 69% | 11% | 7% | 15% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 74.3% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.21 | -2.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 73.8% | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | +7.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 07/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/05/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/04/23 | H | 0-0 |
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-1 |
Obolon'-Brovar| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 4-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Karpaty | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 2 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 224 | 147 | 19 | 58 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 68% |
| 3 |  Polessya | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 4 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 48% |
| 5 |  Kryvbas KR | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 6 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 25 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 7 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 85 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 62% |
| 8 |  Zorya Luhansk | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 9 |  Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 56% |
| 10 |  Livyi Bereh | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 11 | Obolon'-Brovar | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1.0 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 42% |
| 12 |  Bukovyna | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1.0 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 13 |  Kudrivka | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 14 |  Veres Rivne | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1.3 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 15 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 16 |  Chornomorets | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | - |