PythiaFootballBETA
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent form note is telling, as they come off a defeat, but their home form is relatively strong, conceding just 0.83 goals per game against weaker opponents. Meanwhile, Veres Rivne's away form is concerning, having conceded 1.5 goals per game against stronger opponents. The model's selection is the Under 3.5, with a high probability of 81.9%.
The model predicts an Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home win, with a 49% chance of victory, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 21% chance of a Veres Rivne win. The expected total number of goals is 2.2, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-0, with a probability of 14.1%.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home scoring average is 1.5 goals per game, while Veres Rivne's away scoring average is 0.92 goals per game against stronger opponents. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home conceding average is 0.83 goals per game, while Veres Rivne's away conceding average is 1.5 goals per game.
The model's suggested picks include the Under 3.5 with 81.9% probability, the Home win with 49% probability, the Draw with 30% probability, and the Away win with 21% probability.
The draw between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne extends the home team's run of consecutive draws to four, and also marks a third consecutive draw for their opponents. The final score was 0-0, resulting in a draw. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, with the model's call proving wrong. The model's selection, a home win, had a pre-match probability of 49%. The model's selection was wrong. The model's selection of a home win was not correct. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. In contrast, the model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 81.8% and an edge of 6%.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.14 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.88 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.45 | 1.35 | 1.73 | 1.36 | 1.11 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
Veres Rivne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.37 | 1.00 | 1.47 | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.47 | 1.82 | 0.38 | 1.88 | 0.56 | 1.78 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.46 | 0.77 | 1.71 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Veres Rivne goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Epitsentr DunayivtsiVeres RivneEpitsentr Dunayivtsi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 24.1 | 25.6 | 21.2 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 12.0 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 16.5 | 16.0 | 17.0 |
| vs Similar (30) | 9.2 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 26.9 | 28.0 | 22.5 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 27.0 | - | 27.0 |
| % over line | 53% | 50% | 60% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 60% | 70% | 40% |
| % under line | 47% | 50% | 40% | 90% | 88% | 92% | 40% | 30% | 60% |
Veres Rivne| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 22.0 | 26.3 | 19.9 |
| vs Stronger (26) | 10.7 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 19.9 | 25.2 | 16.9 |
| vs Similar (24) | 9.9 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 24.4 | 27.7 | 23.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 62% | 43% | 71% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 52% | 86% | 36% |
| % under line | 38% | 57% | 29% | 84% | 83% | 85% | 48% | 14% | 64% |
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.38 | 0.69 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.12 | 0.62 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 0.82 | 0.67 | 0.44 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Veres Rivne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 0.63 | 0.13 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.12 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.88 | 0.22 | 0.78 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.46 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.17 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.90 | 1.06 | 0.75 | 0.64 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.75 | 1.62 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 0.70 | 1.27 | 0.55 | 0.44 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Veres Rivne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.35 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.00 | 0.38 | 1.43 | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 89.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 81.8% | 1.21 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.21 | +5.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 77.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 74.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 70.4% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +0.4% | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 01/11/25 | H | 2-3 | |
| 02/06/24 | A | 3-1 | |
| 29/05/24 | H | 1-1 |
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-0 |
Veres Rivne| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 24/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 20/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 4-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Karpaty | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 49% |
| 2 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 2.8 | 75% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 186 | 115 | 19 | 52 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 68% |
| 3 |  Polessya | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 4 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 48% |
| 5 |  Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 6 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 91 | 32 | 26 | 33 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 62% |
| 7 |  Zorya Luhansk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 52% |
| 8 |  Bukovyna | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 |  Livyi Bereh | 4 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 43% |
| 11 |  Kryvbas KR | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 48% |
| 12 |  Chornomorets | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 13 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 14 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0.8 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 42% |
| 15 |  Kudrivka | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 16 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 49% |