Esenler Erokspor are tipped to win, with a 42% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of Iğdır FK taking the victory. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, centring on a 2-goal total that occurs 26% of the time. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.6% probability. Home form shows Esenler scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.13 against similar opposition, while Iğdır FK averages 1.13 scored and 1.33 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (98.3% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1% with a 7% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.0% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (95.1% with a 5% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (94.2% with a 6% edge). Esenler’s recent draw against Ümraniyespor and Iğdır’s two-game losing streak add context to the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
The upset came early as I\u011fd\u0131r FK snatched a 0-1 win, overturning the pre-match favourite Esenler Erokspor. The model had tipped a home win at 42% probability, but the prediction proved wrong. The match finished 0-1, a result that the model’s favourite did not achieve. All of the model’s suggested picks were settled and hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.9%, Under 5.5 at 95.0%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 94.2%. The game’s low total of one goal matched the model’s expectation of a modest scoreline.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Esenler Erokspor win✗ Miss
42.1%
Avg Implied 49.8% · @ 1.83
Edge
-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.85
SBO
1.85
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.48
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.79
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
1xBet
3.54
Marathonbet
3.54
Iğdır FK win✓ Hit
29.4%
Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 3.80
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.10
Betano
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Esenler Erokspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.00
1.33
1.13
2.20
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.77
1.00
1.33
1.13
2.20
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Iğdır FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iğdır FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.30
1.53
1.27
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.33
1.30
1.53
1.27
1.13
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.6%
@ 1.24+0.0%
Under 1.5
25.4%
@ 3.64-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
3.83
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Superbet
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.3%
@ 1.81-3.2%
Under 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.92+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.90
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Betfair
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
@ 2.96-4.7%
Under 3.5
73.5%
@ 1.34+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.07
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.8%
@ 1.70-0.6%
No
46.2%
@ 2.02+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
William Hil
1.70
No
William Hil
2.05
Betfair
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Unibet
2.04
1xBet
2.03
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 6.29+6.6%
1-0
9.4%@ 6.96+3.0%
2-1
8.9%@ 7.59+3.1%
0-0
8.6%@ 10.18+4.3%
2-0
7.6%@ 8.44+2.4%
0-1 ✓
7.4%@ 11.01+3.4%
1-2
7.2%@ 11.70+3.5%
2-2
5.2%@ 12.91+1.8%
Esenler Erokspor goals ↓
Iğdır FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
7.4%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.4%
14%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.6%
8.9%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.7%
4.3%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Esenler Erokspor goals (down), columns = Iğdır FK goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Batman Petrolspor
2.60
Bursaspor
2.40
Sarıyer
2.00
Kayserispor
2.00
Iğdır FK
1.80
Mardin 1969
1.80
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
Muğlaspor
1.60
Bandırmaspor
1.20
Antalyaspor
1.20
Pendikspor
1.00
Vanspor FK
0.80
Esenler Erokspor
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Sivasspor
0.60
Ümraniyespor
0.60
İstanbulspor
0.40
Boluspor
0.00
Esenler Erokspor is 1.00 points worse than Iğdır FK in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Keçiörengücü
2.40
Batman Petrolspor
2.00
Bursaspor
2.00
Manisa F.K.
2.00
Antalyaspor
1.60
Sarıyer
1.60
Mardin 1969
1.60
Iğdır FK
1.40
Pendikspor
1.40
Kayserispor
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Vanspor FK
1.00
Bandırmaspor
1.00
Sivasspor
1.00
İstanbulspor
1.00
Ümraniyespor
0.80
Muğlaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.40
Bodrum FK
0.40
Boluspor
0.20
Esenler Erokspor is 1.00 goals worse than Iğdır FK in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Muğlaspor
0.40
Bandırmaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.60
Mardin 1969
0.60
Bursaspor
0.60
Kayserispor
0.60
Sarıyer
0.80
Batman Petrolspor
0.80
Iğdır FK
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Ümraniyespor
1.20
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Sivasspor
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Antalyaspor
2.00
Vanspor FK
2.20
Boluspor
2.20
Pendikspor
2.20
İstanbulspor
2.60
Esenler Erokspor is 0.20 goals better than Iğdır FK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
61%
Bandırmaspor
60%
Bursaspor
59%
Manisa F.K.
55%
Antalyaspor
55%
Kayserispor
53%
Batman Petrolspor
52%
Ümraniyespor
52%
Pendikspor
51%
Sarıyer
50%
Iğdır FK
49%
Mardin 1969
49%
Sivasspor
48%
Bodrum FK
46%
Keçiörengücü
45%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
İstanbulspor
44%
Muğlaspor
43%
Vanspor FK
42%
Boluspor
41%
Esenler Erokspor is 12.0 percentage points better than Iğdır FK in terms of average possession (61% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Esenler Erokspor
For 4.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Iğdır FK
For 3.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Esenler Erokspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.0
8.8
4.5
3.8
5.4
22.9
22.2
23.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
8.9
9.0
8.8
4.5
3.8
5.4
22.9
22.2
23.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
42%
38%
72%
65%
79%
67%
62%
71%
% under line
60%
58%
62%
28%
35%
21%
33%
38%
29%
This opponent (Iğdır FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iğdır FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.7
8.0
4.1
4.2
3.9
23.5
22.9
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
8.7
9.7
7.7
4.1
4.2
3.9
23.4
22.9
24.0
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
-
15.0
4.0
-
4.0
27.0
-
27.0
% over line
43%
59%
27%
58%
60%
56%
59%
55%
64%
% under line
57%
41%
73%
42%
40%
44%
41%
45%
36%
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kayserispor
10.0
Sivasspor
9.5
Bodrum FK
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.2
Bandırmaspor
9.1
Bursaspor
9.1
Ümraniyespor
9.0
Iğdır FK
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.9
Esenler Erokspor
8.8
Mardin 1969
8.8
Manisa F.K.
8.6
Pendikspor
8.5
İstanbulspor
8.4
Keçiörengücü
8.3
Vanspor FK
8.3
Boluspor
8.2
Batman Petrolspor
8.0
Sarıyer
7.9
Muğlaspor
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Muğlaspor
6.7
Batman Petrolspor
6.5
Antalyaspor
5.3
Vanspor FK
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Pendikspor
5.1
Boluspor
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Manisa F.K.
4.9
Iğdır FK
4.8
Bandırmaspor
4.6
İstanbulspor
4.6
Keçiörengücü
4.6
Kayserispor
4.5
Bursaspor
4.4
Fatih Karagümrük
4.3
Ümraniyespor
4.2
Bodrum FK
4.1
Mardin 1969
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
33.0
Bursaspor
29.1
Fatih Karagümrük
28.8
Vanspor FK
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.2
Pendikspor
26.8
Batman Petrolspor
25.8
Boluspor
25.7
Kayserispor
24.9
Bandırmaspor
24.1
Bodrum FK
24.0
Sarıyer
23.6
Manisa F.K.
23.6
Keçiörengücü
23.5
Iğdır FK
23.5
Sivasspor
23.4
İstanbulspor
23.3
Ümraniyespor
23.1
Mardin 1969
23.0
Esenler Erokspor
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
36.1%
@ 2.15-7.0%
Under 9.5
63.9%
@ 1.63+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.5%
Under 3.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.4%
Under 21.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Esenler Erokspor or Draw✗ Miss
70.6%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.20
Edge
-5.6%
42%
29%
29%
covers Esenler Erokspor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Esenler Erokspor or Iğdır FK✓ Hit
71.5%
Avg Implied 74.4% · @ 1.23
Edge
-3.0%
42%
29%
29%
covers Esenler Erokspor + Iğdır FK
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Draw or Iğdır FK✓ Hit
57.9%
Avg Implied 49.3% · @ 1.86
Edge
+8.6%
42%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Iğdır FK
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.90
10Bet
1.90
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
76.3%
@ 1.16-3.6%
Under
23.7%
@ 4.61+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.60
1xBet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Esenler Erokspor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.2%
@ 1.84-8.1%
Under
57.8%
@ 1.86+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
BetVictor
1.87
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Under
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Esenler Erokspor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.6%
@ 3.67-7.6%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.24+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.98
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Esenler Erokspor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 7.97-5.9%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.06+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.80
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Iğdır FK over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.9%
@ 1.42+3.7%
Under
31.1%
@ 2.67-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.85
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.64
1xBet
2.64
Iğdır FK over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.5%
@ 3.06+2.4%
Under
67.5%
@ 1.32-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.07
Betano
3.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Iğdır FK over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 7.97-0.3%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.05+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Iğdır FK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 19.00-2.0%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Esenler Erokspor, so a minus line means Esenler Erokspor give that many goals of a start and Iğdır FK receive them. At -1, Esenler Erokspor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Esenler Erokspor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Iğdır FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iğdır FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.73
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.7%
@ 1.35-3.1%
Under 0.5
34.3%
@ 2.97+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.18
William Hil
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.3%
@ 2.61+0.9%
Under 1.5
63.7%
@ 1.43-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
Betano
2.72
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Superbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 6.30-2.8%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.08+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Under
William Hil
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.4%
@ 1.77-1.1%
Under
48.6%
@ 1.96+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Esenler Erokspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.3%
@ 4.90-1.5%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.14+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
4.90
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Esenler Erokspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 9.50-5.7%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Iğdır FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.0%
@ 2.42-0.2%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.49+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.32
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.44
Iğdır FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 8.57-3.3%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.04+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
8.30
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Iğdır FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Esenler Erokspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
0.87
0.47
1.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.13
0.50
0.87
0.47
1.40
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Iğdır FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iğdır FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.80
0.87
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.83
0.80
0.87
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.7%
@ 1.21+1.4%
Under 0.5
22.3%
@ 3.89-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
3.90
Marathonbet
3.86
1xBet
3.86
Superbet
3.85
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.6%
@ 2.00-4.8%
Under 1.5
58.4%
@ 1.73+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.1%
@ 4.13-5.3%
Under 2.5
82.9%
@ 1.19+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
62.6%
@ 1.53+2.3%
Under
37.4%
@ 2.34-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.54
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Esenler Erokspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.7%
@ 3.45-2.8%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.25+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Esenler Erokspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 8.70-3.4%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.03+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
Iğdır FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.5%
@ 2.00-4.7%
Under
58.5%
@ 1.72+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Under
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Superbet
1.69
Iğdır FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 5.85-4.4%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.09+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.00
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Iğdır FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 10.50-7.1%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.08
William Hil
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.9%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.7%
1.14
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.4%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
-
-
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.7%
1.21
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.18
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
76.3%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
-3.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.25
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.1%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
-
+8.3%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.6%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+0.0%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.5%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.22
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.6%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
-5.6%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
70.6%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-3.3%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Esenler Erokspor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Muhamed Buljubašić25%
N. Janvier0%
Erkan Kaş0%
B. Öztürk0%
B. Samudio0%
Yusuf Erdoğan0%
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş0%
Luccas Claro0%
Recep Niyaz0%
H. Bilazer0%
A. Zeqiri0%
Enes Alic 0%
M. Okyar0%
Erdem Canpolat0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Recep Niyaz33%
M. Okyar33%
Erkan Kaş25%
Yusuf Erdoğan25%
Luccas Claro25%
H. Bilazer25%
Erdem Canpolat25%
Muhamed Buljubašić25%
N. Janvier0%
B. Öztürk0%
B. Samudio0%
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş0%
A. Zeqiri0%
Enes Alic 0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Erkan Kaş25%
N. Janvier0%
B. Öztürk0%
B. Samudio0%
Yusuf Erdoğan0%
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş0%
Luccas Claro0%
Recep Niyaz0%
H. Bilazer0%
A. Zeqiri0%
Enes Alic 0%
M. Okyar0%
Erdem Canpolat0%
Muhamed Buljubašić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş67%
N. Janvier25%
B. Samudio25%
Yusuf Erdoğan25%
A. Zeqiri25%
Erkan Kaş0%
B. Öztürk0%
Luccas Claro0%
Recep Niyaz0%
H. Bilazer0%
Enes Alic 0%
M. Okyar0%
Erdem Canpolat0%
Muhamed Buljubašić0%
Iğdır FK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Öztürk33%
Loic Kouagba33%
Giovanni Crociata33%
Douglas Tanque33%
Gökcan Kaya33%
Felix Afena-Gyan33%
Doğan Erdoğan0%
J. Szumski0%
Soner Gönül0%
Dino Hotić0%
Hüseyin Karabey0%
Moustapha Camara0%
Arda Çolak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Doğan Erdoğan67%
Hüseyin Karabey67%
Giovanni Crociata33%
Dino Hotić33%
Felix Afena-Gyan33%
Arda Çolak33%
A. Öztürk0%
Loic Kouagba0%
J. Szumski0%
Douglas Tanque0%
Gökcan Kaya0%
Soner Gönül0%
Moustapha Camara0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Loic Kouagba33%
Soner Gönül33%
Dino Hotić33%
Hüseyin Karabey33%
Moustapha Camara33%
Doğan Erdoğan0%
A. Öztürk0%
Giovanni Crociata0%
J. Szumski0%
Douglas Tanque0%
Gökcan Kaya0%
Felix Afena-Gyan0%
Arda Çolak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Douglas Tanque33%
Dino Hotić33%
Felix Afena-Gyan33%
Doğan Erdoğan0%
A. Öztürk0%
Loic Kouagba0%
Giovanni Crociata0%
J. Szumski0%
Gökcan Kaya0%
Soner Gönül0%
Hüseyin Karabey0%
Moustapha Camara0%
Arda Çolak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
Esenler Erokspor's squad is €1m more valuable than Iğdır FK's (€11m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
Esenler Erokspor and Iğdır FK have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
Esenler Erokspor's midfield is €1m more valuable than Iğdır FK's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
Esenler Erokspor and Iğdır FK have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Batman Petrolspor
Bursaspor
Sarıyer
Kayserispor
Mardin 1969
Keçiörengücü
Manisa F.K.
Muğlaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
Antalyaspor
Pendikspor
Bodrum FK
Vanspor FK
Ümraniyespor
Sivasspor
İstanbulspor
Boluspor