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Espanyol vs Real Madrid Result & Analysis

Date: 22/08/2026
Time: 19:30
Final 1-2
Espanyol
Espanyol
Vs
16%
24%
60%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Spain: La Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Real Madrid is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 62% chance of victory, according to the Pythia prediction model. This is largely due to their opponent's weakness at home, as Espanyol has struggled to contain stronger teams on their own turf, conceding an average of 1.75 goals per match. In contrast, Real Madrid has a strong away record, scoring 1.56 goals and conceding just 0.78 against weaker opponents.

The model predicts an expected total of 2.8 goals, with the most likely scoreline being 0-2 in favour of Real Madrid, with a probability of 11.5%. Espanyol has also struggled to score at home, averaging just 0.25 goals per match.

The model suggests three selections: Over 21.5 fouls (79.2%), Over 1.5 goals (78.1% with a 1% edge), and Over 3.5 cards (75.1%). The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 15%, 23%, and 62% respectively.

Results analysis

The model’s forecast proved spot on: Real Madrid secured a 1-2 away victory, extending their four-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, “Away win,” carried a 60 % probability and was correct. The final score matched the most likely 1-1 outcome in the model’s distribution, but the actual 1-2 result still fell within the predicted range. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.6 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Under 6.5 (98.5 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.7 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.2 %), Under 5.5 (95.7 %) and Home under 2.5 goals (94.7 %). The model’s selections performed flawlessly, confirming the accuracy of its predictions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Espanyol win✗ Miss
16.3%
Avg Implied 13.5% · @ 7.07
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
7.60
Unibet
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
1xBet
7.42
Pinnacle
7.32
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied 20.5% · @ 4.65
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.00
1xBet
4.83
Pinnacle
4.83
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
Real Madrid win✓ Hit
59.9%
Avg Implied 66.0% · @ 1.44
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45

⚜ 2. Goal Analysis

EspanyolEspanyol

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D14L01L00D02L12L20W21W11D30WA·REA04/04A·BAR11/04A·RAY23/04H·LEV27/04H·REA03/05A·SEV09/05H·ATH13/05A·OSA17/05H·REA23/05H·LEV16/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.501.001.211.121.75
vs Stronger (7)0.712.710.251.751.334.00
vs Similar (23)1.171.131.301.001.081.23
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Real MadridReal Madrid

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D34L21W11D20W02L20W10W42WH·BAY07/04H·GIR10/04A·BAY15/04H·ALA21/04A·REA24/04A·ESP03/05A·BAR10/05H·OVI14/05A·SEV17/05H·ATH23/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.171.172.690.941.571.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.891.782.251.251.602.20
vs Weaker (21)2.290.902.830.831.561.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
@ 1.20-0.7%
Under 1.5
21.7%
@ 4.50+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Under
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
888Sport
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.6%
@ 1.65-4.0%
Under 2.5
46.4%
@ 2.25+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Unibet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Under
SBO
2.35
1xBet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.32
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.3%
@ 2.61-4.9%
Under 3.5
68.7%
@ 1.48+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.64
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.0%
@ 1.81+0.2%
No
48.0%
@ 1.94-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.89
1xBet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
888Sport
1.80
No
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.95

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%@ 8.16+5.8%
0-2
10.9%@ 7.00+4.3%
0-1
10.3%@ 7.15+3.9%
1-2 ✓
9.9%@ 7.68+3.9%
0-0
7.0%@ 13.54+3.6%
0-3
6.9%@ 9.58+2.1%
1-3
6.3%@ 10.47+1.9%
2-1
4.7%@ 18.18+2.2%
Espanyol goals ↓
Real Madrid goals →
01234
07.0%10%11%6.9%3.3%
14.4%11%9.9%6.3%3.0%
22.5%4.7%4.5%2.9%1.4%
30.7%1.4%1.4%0.9%0.4%
40.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Espanyol goals (down), columns = Real Madrid goals (across).

đŸ’Ș 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Espanyol is 1.05 points worse than Real Madrid in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 2.26).

⚔ Attack

Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Espanyol is 0.89 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 2.03).

đŸ›Ąïž Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Espanyol is 0.53 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 0.92).

⏱ Possession

Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Espanyol is 17.1 percentage points worse than Real Madrid in terms of average possession (42% vs 59%).

đŸŽČ 4. Props Analysis

EspanyolEspanyol

For 4.1 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.6

đŸš© Corners

17013529896456445657341811171011811127H·LEVH·REAA·OSAH·ATHA·SEVH·REAH·LEVA·RAYA·BARA·REA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.2

🟹 Cards

100313215534434263312734310776949H·LEVH·REAA·OSAA·SEVH·REAH·LEVA·RAYA·BARA·REAH·GET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 12.7 · Total 27.6

⚠ Fouls

3501771117131091417141916121515121810181224282323313527272830H·LEVH·REAA·OSAH·ATHA·SEVH·REAH·LEVA·RAYA·BARA·REA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Real MadridReal Madrid

For 5.9 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.2

đŸš© Corners

190214445846567962910181138912111315111119H·ATHA·SEVH·OVIA·BARA·ESPA·REAH·ALAA·BAYH·GIRH·BAY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.7

🟹 Cards

902442432111812114242467329356H·ATHA·SEVA·BARA·ESPA·REAH·ALAA·BAYH·GIRH·BAYA·MAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 14.6 · Total 25.1

⚠ Fouls

3506201218714918161981014121210913121226302127351826222224H·ATHA·SEVH·OVIA·BARA·ESPA·REAH·ALAA·BAYH·GIRH·BAY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

EspanyolEspanyol

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.89.510.04.65.04.325.926.425.4
vs Stronger (12)9.17.810.34.34.34.326.424.728.2
vs Similar (37)10.010.19.94.95.24.625.726.924.6
vs Weaker (1)---0.0-0.0---
% over line51%42%60%62%67%58%76%79%72%
% under line49%58%40%38%33%42%24%21%28%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Real MadridReal Madrid

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.610.810.44.84.84.724.024.323.8
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (14)11.512.610.46.05.16.923.724.423.0
vs Weaker (36)10.310.110.44.34.63.924.224.324.1
% over line60%58%62%58%50%65%68%71%65%
% under line40%42%38%42%50%35%32%29%35%
This opponent (Espanyol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

đŸš© Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.6
Alaves
10.5
Racing Santander
10.5
Real Sociedad
10.2
Levante
10.0
Espanyol
9.8
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Osasuna
9.1
Villarreal
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Malaga
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
8.1

🟹 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.4
Malaga
5.2
Sevilla
5.2
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.0
Alaves
4.9
Osasuna
4.9
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.8
Real Betis
4.8
Levante
4.8
Elche
4.7
Celta Vigo
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Barcelona
4.4
Villarreal
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.2

⚠ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.2
Alaves
28.9
Elche
27.9
Sevilla
27.6
Racing Santander
26.7
Real Sociedad
26.6
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Espanyol
25.7
Athletic Club
25.4
Osasuna
25.3
Levante
24.8
Malaga
24.6
Celta Vigo
24.5
Villarreal
24.5
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
24.0
Real Betis
23.7
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.1%
@ 1.76-0.9%
Under 9.5
47.9%
@ 1.98+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.74
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.2%
@ 1.59+15.6%
Under 3.5
25.8%
@ 2.25-15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
Under
Superbet
2.47
Pinnacle
2.35
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.20
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.5%
@ 1.33+11.3%
Under 21.5
20.5%
@ 2.85-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
2.85

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Espanyol or Draw✗ Miss
43.9%
Avg Implied 34.6% · @ 2.74
Edge
+9.3%
16%
24%
60%
covers Espanyol + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.85
1xBet
2.84
SBO
2.82
Unibet
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Espanyol or Real Madrid✓ Hit
73.6%
Avg Implied 79.6% · @ 1.19
Edge
-6.0%
16%
24%
60%
covers Espanyol + Real Madrid
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Draw or Real Madrid✓ Hit
82.5%
Avg Implied 85.9% · @ 1.10
Edge
-3.3%
16%
24%
60%
covers Draw + Real Madrid
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
888Sport
1.11

đŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Espanyol over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
56.7%
@ 1.63-0.6%
Under
43.3%
@ 2.19+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Espanyol over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.5%
@ 4.13-2.2%
Under
79.5%
@ 1.21+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.37
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Under
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Espanyol over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 11.59-2.8%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
12.75
1xBet
12.70
Unibet
11.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Espanyol over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 29.17-2.3%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
33.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Real Madrid over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.3%
@ 1.08-5.2%
Under
18.7%
@ 6.93+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
888Sport
7.00
Real Madrid over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
49.9%
@ 1.48-12.9%
Under
50.1%
@ 2.51+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.60
BetVictor
2.55
1xBet
2.54
Marathonbet
2.54
Real Madrid over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.7%
@ 2.52-13.4%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.48+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
10Bet
2.60
Unibet
2.55
1xBet
2.54
Marathonbet
2.54
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Real Madrid over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 4.98-9.8%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.15+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
888Sport
1.15

⚖ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Espanyol, so a minus line means Espanyol give that many goals of a start and Real Madrid receive them. At -1, Espanyol must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Espanyol win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Espanyol)Actual: Real Madrid
Espanyol -2
1.4%
@ 49.33-0.6%
Draw -2
4.4%
@ 20.00-0.3%
Real Madrid +2
94.2%
@ 1.02+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
67.00
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
40.00
Draw
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Away
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Handicap -1 (Espanyol)Actual: Real Madrid
Espanyol -1
5.8%
@ 13.72-0.7%
Draw -1
11.7%
@ 7.66+0.0%
Real Madrid +1
82.5%
@ 1.09+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
14.00
Marathonbet
7.60
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Away
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Handicap +1 (Espanyol)Actual: Draw
Espanyol +1
43.9%
@ 2.74+10.9%
Draw +1
24.5%
@ 3.56-0.9%
Real Madrid -1
31.7%
@ 2.17-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.85
Unibet
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.67
Draw
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Away
Superbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Handicap +2 (Espanyol)Actual: Espanyol
Espanyol +2
68.3%
@ 1.63+12.8%
Draw +2
17.7%
@ 4.22-3.8%
Real Madrid -2
14.0%
@ 3.94-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Unibet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Draw
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.00
Away
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.75

⏱ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

EspanyolEspanyol

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L00D00D00D00D00D10W01L20WA·REA04/04A·BAR11/04A·RAY23/04H·LEV27/04H·REA03/05A·SEV09/05H·ATH13/05A·OSA17/05H·REA23/05H·LEV16/08
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.600.360.570.310.62
vs Stronger (7)0.141.000.000.500.331.67
vs Similar (23)0.390.480.500.600.310.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Real MadridReal Madrid

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D32W10W10W00D02L10W10W21WH·BAY07/04H·GIR10/04A·BAY15/04H·ALA21/04A·REA24/04A·ESP03/05A·BAR10/05H·OVI14/05A·SEV17/05H·ATH23/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.571.120.380.640.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.001.111.000.751.001.40
vs Weaker (21)0.860.331.170.250.440.44
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.30-2.2%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 3.38+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.42-5.3%
Under 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.54+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
SBO
2.47
1xBet
2.46
Under
Superbet
1.59
Betfair
1.57
SBO
1.56
William Hil
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.1%
@ 5.60-4.5%
Under 2.5
87.9%
@ 1.12+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Unibet
5.75
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.12

đŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Espanyol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.9%
@ 2.94+5.2%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.37-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.11
Unibet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.89
Under
Superbet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Espanyol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 10.54-1.7%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.03+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
11.70
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Espanyol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 29.50-2.4%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
51.9%
@ 1.53-9.1%
Under
48.1%
@ 2.39+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Under
Pinnacle
2.51
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.30
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.6%
@ 3.53-7.6%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.25+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.60
Unibet
3.60
1xBet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Under
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 9.04-6.4%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
8.60
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01

⏱ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

EspanyolEspanyol

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L00D02L12L20W11D10W10WA·REA04/04A·BAR11/04A·RAY23/04H·LEV27/04H·REA03/05A·SEV09/05H·ATH13/05A·OSA17/05H·REA23/05H·LEV16/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.900.640.640.811.12
vs Stronger (7)0.571.710.251.251.002.33
vs Similar (23)0.780.650.800.400.770.85
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Real MadridReal Madrid

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D02L11D01L20W00D10W00D21WH·BAY07/04H·GIR10/04A·BAY15/04H·ALA21/04A·REA24/04A·ESP03/05A·BAR10/05H·OVI14/05A·SEV17/05H·ATH23/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.601.560.560.930.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.890.671.250.500.600.80
vs Weaker (21)1.430.571.670.581.110.56
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.4%
Under 0.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.7%
Under 1.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.5%
Under 2.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

đŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Espanyol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Espanyol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Espanyol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.8%
Under
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.2%
Under
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

đŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.6%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals99.1%1.01
Betano
1.01
----+2.4%✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals98.9%1.01
Betano
1.01
----+2.3%✓ Hit
Under 6.598.5%1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+4.0%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals97.7%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals96.2%1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-+6.4%✓ Hit
Under 5.595.7%1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+6.0%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals94.7%1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+2.8%✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap94.2%1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
--+0.9%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals93.1%-------✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals92.8%1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
--+1.7%✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals91.0%1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
888Sport
1.15
+9.8%✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls89.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.588.9%1.18
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+9.0%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals88.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards88.0%1.25
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.18
--+13.9%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals87.9%1.12
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+4.5%✓ Hit
Draw or Away82.5%1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
888Sport
1.11
-3.3%✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap82.5%1.09
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+0.7%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals81.5%-------✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals81.4%1.25
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+7.6%✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals81.3%1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
-5.2%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals79.5%1.21
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+2.2%✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls79.5%1.33
1xBet
1.33
----+11.3%✓ Hit
Over 1.578.3%1.20
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
-0.7%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals77.4%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals76.3%1.48
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
+13.4%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals74.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards74.2%1.59
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
+15.6%✓ Hit
Home or Away73.6%1.19
1xBet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
-6.0%✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners71.6%1.35
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
+3.3%✓ Hit

đŸŽœ 13. Player market rates

Espanyol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Roberto FernĂĄndez67%
Tyrhys Dolan33%
Álex Calatrava33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu ExpĂłsito0%
Unai NĂșñez0%
Urko GonzĂĄlez0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Javier HernĂĄndez0%
Roger Hinojo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Urko GonzĂĄlez67%
Álex Calatrava67%
Javier HernĂĄndez33%
Roger Hinojo33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu ExpĂłsito0%
Unai NĂșñez0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto FernĂĄndez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Javier HernĂĄndez100%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu ExpĂłsito0%
Unai NĂșñez0%
Urko GonzĂĄlez0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Álex Calatrava0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto FernĂĄndez0%
Roger Hinojo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Edu ExpĂłsito33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Unai NĂșñez0%
Urko GonzĂĄlez0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Álex Calatrava0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto FernĂĄndez0%
Javier HernĂĄndez0%
Roger Hinojo0%
Real Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kylian Mbappé67%
Jude Bellingham67%
VinĂ­cius JĂșnior33%
Arda GĂŒler33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Dean Huijsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
VinĂ­cius JĂșnior33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Jude Bellingham0%
Arda GĂŒler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
VinĂ­cius JĂșnior67%
Federico Valverde33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Arda GĂŒler33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kylian Mbappé100%
VinĂ­cius JĂșnior33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Arda GĂŒler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Espanyol's squad is €1338m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€119m vs €1456m).

⚔ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Espanyol's attack is €803m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€39m vs €842m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Espanyol's midfield is €206m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€31m vs €238m).

đŸ›Ąïž Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Espanyol's defence is €329m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€48m vs €377m).

đŸ€ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
ESP wins
0
Draws
6
RM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Espanyol vs Real Madrid · H/A from ESP
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/26HESP Vs Real Madrid0-2
20/09/25AReal Madrid Vs ESP2-0
01/02/25HESP Vs Real Madrid1-0
21/09/24AReal Madrid Vs ESP4-1
11/03/23AReal Madrid Vs ESP3-1
28/08/22HESP Vs Real Madrid1-3
30/04/22AReal Madrid Vs ESP4-0
03/10/21HESP Vs Real Madrid2-1

EspanyolEspanyol

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/08/26HESP Vs Levante3-0
23/05/26HESP Vs Real Sociedad1-1
17/05/26AOsasuna Vs ESP1-2
13/05/26HESP Vs Athletic Club2-0
09/05/26ASevilla Vs ESP2-1
03/05/26HESP Vs Real Madrid0-2
27/04/26HESP Vs Levante0-0
23/04/26ARayo Vallecano Vs ESP1-0
11/04/26ABarcelona Vs ESP4-1
04/04/26AReal Betis Vs ESP0-0

Real MadridReal Madrid

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26HRM Vs Athletic Club4-2
17/05/26ASevilla Vs RM0-1
14/05/26HRM Vs Oviedo2-0
10/05/26ABarcelona Vs RM2-0
03/05/26AEspanyol Vs RM0-2
24/04/26AReal Betis Vs RM1-1
21/04/26HRM Vs Alaves2-1
15/04/26ABayern MĂŒnchen Vs RM4-3
10/04/26HRM Vs Girona1-1
07/04/26HRM Vs Bayern MĂŒnchen1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Espanyol
Espanyol
Spain: La Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.24
HomeDLWDW1.46
AwayDLLLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%27%
AVG goals2.502.332.65
Over 1.5 %76%79%73%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %20%12%27%
Scored1.141.171.12
Conceded1.361.171.54
BTTS52%46%58%
Clean Sheet28%33%23%
Corners9.789.5010.04
Cards4.835.174.52
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Spain: La Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW2.08
HomeLDWWW2.42
AwayLDWLW1.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%79%54%
AVG goals3.303.333.27
Over 1.5 %86%92%81%
Over 2.5 %62%67%58%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored2.142.421.88
Conceded1.160.921.38
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet32%29%35%
Corners10.6210.8310.42
Cards4.865.004.73

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BarcelonaBarcelona39
100%
3.0
122+10
4.7
100%
67%
67%
11.3
67%
1.7
0%
19.7
33%
1282
5903243684.00.7
69%
2Real MadridReal Madrid39
100%
3.0
102+8
4.0
100%
100%
67%
11.3
67%
4.7
67%
19.7
33%
1456
8422383773.30.7
59%
3Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid37
67%
2.3
73+4
3.3
100%
67%
67%
7.0
0%
5.0
100%
29.7
100%
653
2901552082.31.0
53%
4AlavesAlaves37
67%
2.3
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
12.7
67%
5.3
67%
26.3
100%
68
2422221.70.3
48%
5OsasunaOsasuna37
67%
2.3
31+2
1.3
33%
33%
0%
8.3
33%
5.0
33%
25.0
67%
71
2512331.00.3
47%
6SevillaSevilla36
67%
2.0
65+1
3.7
100%
100%
67%
7.3
33%
7.0
100%
33.0
100%
134
4523652.01.7
51%
7Real BetisReal Betis36
67%
2.0
45-1
3.0
33%
33%
33%
10.7
67%
3.7
33%
19.3
0%
235
13133701.31.7
50%
8Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna35
33%
1.7
53+2
2.7
100%
33%
33%
9.7
67%
4.3
100%
24.0
67%
84
4913221.71.0
-
9LevanteLevante34
33%
1.3
55+0
3.3
67%
67%
33%
9.0
67%
2.7
0%
20.3
33%
89
5116221.71.7
43%
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander34
33%
1.3
55+0
3.3
67%
67%
67%
15.0
100%
4.3
67%
31.7
100%
89
3428281.71.7
-
11Real SociedadReal Sociedad44
25%
1.0
36-3
2.2
50%
50%
25%
11.0
75%
5.8
100%
24.5
50%
247
11058790.81.5
51%
12EspanyolEspanyol33
33%
1.0
54+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
6.3
33%
5.0
67%
27.7
100%
119
3931481.71.3
42%
13Athletic ClubAthletic Club33
33%
1.0
35-2
2.7
100%
33%
33%
13.3
100%
4.7
33%
23.7
67%
241
10657771.01.7
49%
14GetafeGetafe33
33%
1.0
14-3
1.7
33%
33%
0%
8.7
33%
7.0
100%
30.3
100%
90
3628260.31.3
40%
15VillarrealVillarreal32
0%
0.7
45-1
3.0
67%
67%
67%
12.7
67%
5.7
100%
25.3
100%
325
124521481.31.7
45%
16Celta VigoCelta Vigo42
0%
0.5
14-3
1.2
50%
25%
0%
9.0
50%
4.0
50%
27.0
100%
163
5735710.21.0
50%
17ValenciaValencia31
0%
0.3
14-3
1.7
33%
33%
33%
7.7
67%
4.0
67%
24.7
33%
125
4046390.31.3
48%
18Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano31
0%
0.3
48-4
4.0
100%
67%
33%
11.0
67%
4.3
33%
26.0
67%
76
309361.32.7
53%
19ElcheElche31
0%
0.3
39-6
4.0
100%
67%
67%
9.0
33%
2.7
33%
30.0
100%
79
3412331.03.0
58%
20MalagaMalaga31
0%
0.3
17-6
2.7
100%
33%
33%
11.0
67%
4.0
67%
22.3
67%
41
26690.32.3
-
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →

đŸ‘„ 18. Who played

Minutes played, then goals, assists, cards and match rating. Substitutes in grey.

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