The match between Estac Troyes and Paris FC is likely to be a closely contested affair with Paris FC emerging victorious. Paris FC's recent form has been impressive, with a 4-game winning run, while Estac Troyes is coming off a defeat.
The model predicts an away win for Paris FC, with a 45% chance of winning, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of an Estac Troyes victory. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.9%.
Paris FC has a strong away record, scoring an average of 1.55 goals and conceding 0.82 goals against weaker opponents. Estac Troyes has struggled at home, with a 28% chance of winning, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 45% chance of a Paris FC victory. The home win percentage is 28%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 45%.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a 77.9% probability.
Results analysis
The 0-0 draw surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite was the home side, predicted to win with a 38 % chance. The model’s call was wrong. The match ended in a stalemate, extending both teams’ recent runs of draws. The model’s selection of a home win was incorrect, but its other predictions proved accurate. The Under 7.5 goals pick hit at 99.5 %, Under 6.5 goals at 98.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.4 %, Under 5.5 at 95.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.3 %, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.0 %. All selections were settled and hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Estac Troyes win✗ Miss
38.3%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.22
Edge
+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.40
1xBet
3.37
Marathonbet
3.32
Bet365
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Draw✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.52
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.74
BetVictor
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
Superbet
3.55
Paris FC win✗ Miss
32.7%
Avg Implied 43.7% · @ 2.17
Edge
-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Dafabet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Estac Troyes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.97
2.15
1.31
1.47
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
4.00
2.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.71
1.05
2.22
1.44
1.33
0.75
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.38
2.00
0.00
1.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.30
1.50
1.57
1.12
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
0.80
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.12
1.46
1.25
1.67
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.8%
@ 1.22-3.1%
Under 1.5
26.2%
@ 4.08+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Betano
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.3%
@ 1.74-7.4%
Under 2.5
52.7%
@ 2.10+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.79
SBO
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Under
1xBet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
SBO
2.11
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
@ 2.79-8.1%
Under 3.5
74.4%
@ 1.42+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.90
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.82
Superbet
2.77
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.4%
@ 1.59-5.4%
No
46.6%
@ 2.26+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
No
Unibet
2.33
Betfair
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Superbet
2.27
William Hil
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.37+6.8%
1-0
9.1%@ 10.76+4.9%
0-0 ✓
9.0%@ 12.00+5.2%
2-1
8.5%@ 10.15+4.0%
0-1
8.1%@ 8.43+2.8%
1-2
7.7%@ 8.08+2.1%
2-0
6.9%@ 16.62+4.2%
0-2
5.8%@ 11.03+1.7%
Estac Troyes goals ↓
Paris FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
8.1%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.1%
14%
7.7%
3.1%
1.0%
2
6.9%
8.5%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.8%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Estac Troyes goals (down), columns = Paris FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Estac Troyes is 0.26 points worse than Paris FC in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Estac Troyes is 0.28 goals worse than Paris FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Estac Troyes is 0.38 goals worse than Paris FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Estac Troyes
For 5.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 14.2 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris FC
For 4.6 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 9.4 · Total 18.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estac Troyes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.4
8.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
27.4
26.8
28.0
vs Stronger (1)
14.0
14.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (37)
8.1
7.7
8.5
4.1
4.1
4.1
27.1
26.8
27.4
vs Weaker (12)
9.5
9.5
9.5
2.8
2.2
3.3
29.0
27.7
31.0
% over line
42%
40%
43%
44%
36%
52%
92%
96%
87%
% under line
58%
60%
57%
56%
64%
48%
8%
4%
13%
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.6
4.0
4.5
3.5
22.6
23.0
22.1
vs Stronger (5)
7.8
9.0
7.0
2.6
1.5
3.3
15.6
14.0
16.7
vs Similar (33)
10.1
9.8
10.4
4.2
5.0
3.3
22.8
23.7
21.9
vs Weaker (12)
8.6
8.4
8.7
4.1
4.0
4.1
24.7
24.4
24.9
% over line
52%
46%
58%
56%
58%
54%
58%
71%
46%
% under line
48%
54%
42%
44%
42%
46%
42%
29%
54%
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.2
Stade Brestois 29
9.8
Lyon
9.8
Auxerre
9.8
Lille
9.7
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.5
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Angers
8.9
Lorient
8.8
Estac Troyes
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.5
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Nice
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Lorient
4.1
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.5
Le Mans
27.3
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.8
Lyon
25.4
Toulouse
25.4
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Rennes
24.1
Lille
23.9
Monaco
23.8
Nice
23.8
Strasbourg
23.6
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.1
Paris FC
22.6
Angers
22.5
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.0%
@ 2.06+2.8%
Under 9.5
52.0%
@ 1.70-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Under
Unibet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.0%
@ 1.65-3.5%
Under 3.5
47.0%
@ 2.14+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.66
Under
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.20
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
59.4%
@ 1.43-4.2%
Under 21.5
40.6%
@ 2.50+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Under
1xBet
2.50
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Estac Troyes or Draw✓ Hit
67.3%
Avg Implied 56.1% · @ 1.68
Edge
+11.2%
38%
29%
33%
covers Estac Troyes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
SBO
1.71
888Sport
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Estac Troyes or Paris FC✗ Miss
70.9%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.28
Edge
-2.6%
38%
29%
33%
covers Estac Troyes + Paris FC
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Draw or Paris FC✓ Hit
61.7%
Avg Implied 70.3% · @ 1.34
Edge
-8.6%
38%
29%
33%
covers Draw + Paris FC
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.9%
@ 1.30+2.4%
Under
26.1%
@ 3.27-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.41
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.8%
@ 2.50+1.4%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.49-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
Marathonbet
2.60
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.50
888Sport
2.50
Under
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 5.95-0.4%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.10+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.35
888Sport
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Estac Troyes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 14.45-1.9%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
19.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Marathonbet
12.75
1xBet
12.70
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Paris FC over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.6%
@ 1.18-8.2%
Under
29.4%
@ 4.38+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Paris FC over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.6%
@ 1.95-13.3%
Under
65.4%
@ 1.79+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Betfair
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Paris FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 4.07-10.4%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.21+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.25
10Bet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Paris FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 9.03-6.8%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.04+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
10.00
1xBet
9.70
Marathonbet
9.20
Superbet
8.70
Under
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Estac Troyes, so a minus line means Estac Troyes give that many goals of a start and Paris FC receive them. At -1, Estac Troyes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Estac Troyes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Estac Troyes)Actual: Paris FC
Estac Troyes -2
6.5%
@ 13.62-0.1%
Draw -2
11.6%
@ 8.28+0.7%
Paris FC +2
81.9%
@ 1.09-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
17.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
13.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
8.90
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Away
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Handicap -1 (Estac Troyes)Actual: Paris FC
Estac Troyes -1
18.1%
@ 6.55+4.2%
Draw -1
20.2%
@ 4.91+1.7%
Paris FC +1
61.7%
@ 1.34-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
10Bet
5.75
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.33
Away
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Handicap +1 (Estac Troyes)Actual: Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes +1
67.3%
@ 1.66+13.1%
Draw +1
18.3%
@ 3.90-4.8%
Paris FC -1
14.4%
@ 3.99-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Betfair
1.62
Draw
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.82
Away
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.76
Handicap +2 (Estac Troyes)Actual: Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes +2
85.6%
@ 1.21+10.7%
Draw +2
9.6%
@ 6.22-4.9%
Paris FC -2
4.7%
@ 8.58-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.15
Superbet
6.10
Away
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Unibet
8.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Estac Troyes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.85
0.77
0.41
0.41
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.67
0.78
1.00
0.25
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.71
0.79
0.38
0.25
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.54
0.58
0.83
0.42
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.7%
@ 1.32+1.8%
Under 0.5
27.3%
@ 3.21-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Under
Superbet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
William Hil
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.6%
@ 2.53+2.4%
Under 1.5
60.4%
@ 1.50-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.64
Betano
2.62
Betfair
2.60
1xBet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.60
Under
Superbet
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.5%
@ 6.03-2.0%
Under 2.5
86.5%
@ 1.10+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Superbet
6.00
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.9%
@ 2.13-7.8%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.66+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.14
Unibet
2.12
Under
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 6.83-5.7%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.07+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.60
Betano
6.40
Under
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 17.75-3.6%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Paris FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.9%
@ 1.83+5.0%
Under
44.1%
@ 1.90-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.96
Superbet
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Paris FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.9%
@ 5.16+0.9%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.13-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Paris FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 13.00+1.7%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.01-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Estac Troyes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.40
1.31
0.54
1.06
0.29
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.24
0.38
1.44
0.44
1.08
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.12
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.79
0.79
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.40
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.92
0.67
0.83
0.58
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
80.0%
Under 0.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.1%
Under 1.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.8%
Under 2.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
Superbet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Unibet
1.04
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
1.07
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.2%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.5%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.6%
1.21
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
+10.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.9%
1.09
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.09
Unibet
1.08
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.3%
1.28
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.25
-
-
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.1%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.1%
1.23
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.4%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.44
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.9%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.8%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-3.1%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.4%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.26
-
-
-
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.7%
1.32
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
+1.8%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
72.3%
1.55
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.46
-
-
-
+13.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.9%
1.28
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
-2.6%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
70.6%
1.18
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
-8.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Estac Troyes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tawfik Bentayeb48%
Martin Adeline32%
Renaud Ripart29%
Kandet Diawara23%
Jaures Assoumou21%
Mounaim El Idrissy14%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Antoine Mille9%
Mathys Detourbet9%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Ismaël Boura4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Lucas Maronnier0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Diakité33%
Nicolas Lemaitre30%
Adrien Monfray26%
Hugo Gambor26%
Lucas Maronnier22%
Mounaim El Idrissy21%
Paolo Gozzi20%
Xavier Chavalerin20%
Antoine Mille18%
Jaures Assoumou16%
Martin Adeline15%
Ismaël Boura14%
Sankhoun Diawara13%
Anis Ouzenadji13%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Mathys Detourbet11%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Hillel Konaté8%
Kandet Diawara8%
Alexandre Phliponeau7%
Yvann Titi5%
Merwan Ifnaoui3%
Roman Murcy0%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede0%
Noah Donkor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Adeline29%
Noah Donkor20%
Yvann Titi18%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Antoine Mille12%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Mouhamed Diop9%
Kandet Diawara8%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Mounaim El Idrissy7%
Ismaël Boura7%
Sankhoun Diawara7%
Hugo Gambor5%
Jaures Assoumou5%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Renaud Ripart0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Roman Murcy0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawfik Bentayeb42%
Jaures Assoumou32%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Kandet Diawara15%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Merwan Ifnaoui7%
Martin Adeline6%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Mounaim El Idrissy4%
Antoine Mille3%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Ismaël Boura0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Anis Ouzenadji0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
Paris FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ilan Kebbal26%
Marshall Munetsi25%
Lohann Doucet20%
Willem Geubbels19%
Luca Koleosho17%
Alimami Gory16%
Ciro Immobile15%
Jonathan Ikoné15%
Nouha Dicko12%
Moses Simon10%
Rudy Matondo8%
Vincent Marchetti8%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Samir Sophian Chergui7%
Pierre Lees Melou5%
Otávio4%
Adama Camara3%
Kevin Trapp0%
Maxime López0%
Hamari Traoré0%
Thibault De Smet0%
Julien López0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Moustapha Mbow0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Diego Coppola0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maxime López41%
Lohann Doucet40%
Thibault De Smet32%
Otávio29%
Pierre Lees Melou27%
Adama Camara25%
Ilan Kebbal23%
Hamari Traoré22%
Rudy Matondo17%
Ciro Immobile15%
Timothée Kolodziejczak15%
Moustapha Mbow15%
Alimami Gory12%
Jonathan Ikoné12%
Kevin Trapp9%
Mathieu Cafaro8%
Diego Coppola7%
Samir Sophian Chergui7%
Luca Koleosho6%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Willem Geubbels0%
Moses Simon0%
Marshall Munetsi0%
Nouha Dicko0%
Julien López0%
Jean-Philippe Krasso0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ilan Kebbal16%
Ciro Immobile15%
Diego Coppola14%
Pierre Lees Melou14%
Nouha Dicko12%
Maxime López11%
Moses Simon10%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Marshall Munetsi6%
Hamari Traoré6%
Luca Koleosho6%
Thibault De Smet5%
Alimami Gory4%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Jonathan Ikoné4%
Willem Geubbels4%
Moustapha Mbow3%
Kevin Trapp0%
Julien López0%
Samir Sophian Chergui0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Adama Camara0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Otávio0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Moses Simon14%
Ilan Kebbal13%
Marshall Munetsi12%
Jonathan Ikoné12%
Willem Geubbels11%
Mathieu Cafaro8%
Rudy Matondo8%
Ciro Immobile8%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Pierre Lees Melou5%
Alimami Gory4%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Kevin Trapp0%
Maxime López0%
Hamari Traoré0%
Thibault De Smet0%
Nouha Dicko0%
Julien López0%
Samir Sophian Chergui0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Adama Camara0%
Moustapha Mbow0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Otávio0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Diego Coppola0%
Luca Koleosho0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Estac Troyes's squad is €140m less valuable than Paris FC's (€36m vs €176m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Estac Troyes's attack is €52m less valuable than Paris FC's (€7m vs €59m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Estac Troyes's midfield is €43m less valuable than Paris FC's (€11m vs €54m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Estac Troyes's defence is €45m less valuable than Paris FC's (€17m vs €62m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Lyon
Rennes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre