The match between Estoril and Arouca is a tight contest, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or an away triumph. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% chance. Estoril, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.64 conceded, while Arouca, on the road, scores 1.42 and concedes 1.58. The probabilities are 38% for a home win, 28% for a draw, and 34% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%, edge 6%), Under 6.5 (97%, edge 3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.8%, edge 5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.5%, edge 6%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4%, edge 4%), and Under 5.5 (92.4%, edge 1%). Estoril’s recent form shows three straight defeats, while Arouca comes off a win, adding to the uncertainty.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Estoril win
38.3%
Avg Implied 40.9% · @ 2.29
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.39
Pinnacle
2.35
Dafabet
2.32
Betano
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.36
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.47
Dafabet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.42
Betano
3.40
Arouca win
33.3%
Avg Implied 31.2% · @ 3.00
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.15
Dafabet
3.15
1xBet
3.08
Betano
3.05
Pinnacle
3.02
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Estoril
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.73
1.73
1.73
1.33
1.73
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
2.00
1.75
2.00
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.71
1.62
1.73
1.64
1.70
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.50
1.86
1.43
1.19
1.56
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
2.00
1.25
2.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.73
1.32
2.10
1.00
1.42
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.0%
@ 1.25+1.7%
Under 1.5
24.0%
@ 3.61-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.83
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.85-0.9%
Under 2.5
49.9%
@ 1.93+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Unibet
1.86
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.99
Pinnacle
1.98
SBO
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.1%
@ 3.09-2.0%
Under 3.5
71.9%
@ 1.33+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.20
Unibet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Under
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to score
Yes
55.6%
@ 1.66-0.1%
No
44.4%
@ 2.09+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Betano
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
10Bet
1.65
No
William Hil
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 6.17+6.3%
2-1
8.6%@ 8.45+3.3%
1-0
8.3%@ 7.93+2.7%
0-0
8.1%@ 10.34+3.8%
1-2
7.9%@ 9.91+3.4%
0-1
7.6%@ 9.29+2.8%
2-0
6.7%@ 10.94+2.6%
0-2
5.7%@ 14.61+2.6%
Estoril goals ↓
Arouca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.6%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
1
8.3%
14%
7.9%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.7%
8.6%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.1%
4.0%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Estoril goals (down), columns = Arouca goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Estoril is 0.09 points worse than Arouca in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Estoril is 0.21 goals better than Arouca in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Estoril is 0.21 goals better than Arouca in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Estoril is 2.5 percentage points better than Arouca in terms of average possession (53% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Estoril
For 3.8 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 14.1 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arouca
For 3.5 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estoril
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.5
8.6
4.3
4.0
4.7
27.0
25.9
28.0
vs Stronger (14)
8.3
8.5
8.0
4.5
4.8
4.2
26.5
26.0
27.2
vs Similar (35)
9.4
10.0
8.8
4.4
3.6
5.2
27.1
25.8
28.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
38%
46%
29%
74%
68%
80%
88%
83%
92%
% under line
62%
54%
71%
26%
32%
20%
12%
17%
8%
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.4
8.4
5.4
6.5
4.3
25.9
26.9
24.9
vs Stronger (14)
9.8
10.8
9.2
5.6
8.2
4.2
23.4
25.2
22.4
vs Similar (35)
8.4
8.8
7.9
5.3
6.2
4.4
26.7
27.1
26.3
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
13.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
32.0
32.0
-
% over line
40%
46%
33%
72%
83%
62%
75%
79%
71%
% under line
60%
54%
67%
28%
17%
38%
25%
21%
29%
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Rio Ave
10.4
Nacional
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.6
Academico Viseu
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Arouca
8.9
Guimaraes
8.5
Maritimo
8.1
SC Braga
8.1
Moreirense
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
5.9
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.6
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.5
Famalicao
5.4
Nacional
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
FC Porto
5.2
Sporting CP
5.1
Benfica
5.0
Rio Ave
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.0
Santa Clara
30.1
Estrela
29.9
Moreirense
29.5
Casa Pia
29.2
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Rio Ave
27.0
Nacional
26.9
Estoril
26.7
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Arouca
26.0
Benfica
25.8
Academico Viseu
25.3
SC Braga
24.7
Maritimo
24.6
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.8%
@ 1.86-5.5%
Under 9.5
55.2%
@ 1.88+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.75
Under
Unibet
1.93
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.1%
Under 3.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.3%
Under 21.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Estoril or Draw
69.1%
Avg Implied 69.0% · @ 1.35
Edge
+0.1%
38%
28%
33%
covers Estoril + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.40
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Estoril or Arouca
73.3%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.28
Edge
+0.6%
38%
28%
33%
covers Estoril + Arouca
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Draw or Arouca
57.7%
Avg Implied 58.4% · @ 1.60
Edge
-0.7%
38%
28%
33%
covers Draw + Arouca
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.62
10Bet
1.60
William Hil
1.60
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Estoril over/under 0.5
Over
79.6%
@ 1.23+3.9%
Under
20.4%
@ 3.81-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.92
1xBet
3.84
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Estoril over/under 1.5
Over
47.1%
@ 2.15+3.7%
Under
52.9%
@ 1.65-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.26
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
BetVictor
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Estoril over/under 2.5
Over
21.4%
@ 4.65+1.3%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.17-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
BetVictor
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Estoril over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
@ 10.35-1.4%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.03+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
9.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Arouca over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
@ 1.32+3.0%
Under
26.4%
@ 3.15-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.38
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Arouca over/under 1.5
Over
38.4%
@ 2.58+2.2%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.46-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.55
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Arouca over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
@ 6.26+0.1%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.10-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
BetVictor
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Arouca over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
@ 14.75-1.9%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Estoril, so a minus line means Estoril give that many goals of a start and Arouca receive them. At -1, Estoril must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Estoril win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Estoril)
Estoril -2
9.0%
@ 8.96-0.9%
Draw -2
13.1%
@ 6.05-1.5%
Arouca +2
78.0%
@ 1.17+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
6.30
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
5.80
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Handicap -1 (Estoril)
Estoril -1
22.0%
@ 4.21+0.7%
Draw -1
20.3%
@ 3.93-2.5%
Arouca +1
57.7%
@ 1.61+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Draw
Marathonbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.70
Away
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Handicap +1 (Estoril)
Estoril +1
69.1%
@ 1.35+3.0%
Draw +1
16.8%
@ 4.60-2.5%
Arouca -1
14.1%
@ 6.15-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Unibet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Handicap +2 (Estoril)
Estoril +2
85.9%
@ 1.09+2.8%
Draw +2
9.2%
@ 8.50-1.5%
Arouca -2
4.9%
@ 14.67-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Estoril
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.73
1.07
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.56
0.50
1.75
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.71
0.82
0.82
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.86
0.93
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.77
1.00
0.70
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.6%
@ 1.36+2.2%
Under 0.5
29.4%
@ 2.94-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.15
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Marathonbet
2.89
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.0%
@ 2.69-0.4%
Under 1.5
66.0%
@ 1.42+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.82
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
William Hil
2.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.7%
@ 6.65-2.2%
Under 2.5
88.3%
@ 1.08+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.70
William Hil
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Estoril over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.6%
@ 1.94+1.5%
Under
50.4%
@ 1.79-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Estoril over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.3%
@ 6.01-2.2%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.09+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Estoril over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
@ 11.50-5.5%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Arouca over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.9%
@ 2.19+2.4%
Under
55.1%
@ 1.62-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Arouca over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.2%
@ 7.12-2.9%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.07+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.80
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
Arouca over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
@ 12.50-5.6%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Estoril
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
1.00
0.67
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.44
1.25
0.25
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.90
0.91
0.82
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.00
0.50
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.12
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.55
1.10
0.30
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.4%
@ 1.21+1.7%
Under 0.5
21.6%
@ 3.98-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betano
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.3%
@ 2.01-2.0%
Under 1.5
55.7%
@ 1.73+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Under
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
William Hil
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.2%
@ 4.22-4.8%
Under 2.5
82.8%
@ 1.20+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Estoril over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.4%
@ 1.65-1.9%
Under
45.6%
@ 2.12+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Estoril over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.7%
@ 4.09-4.9%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.19+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.33
1xBet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Estoril over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
@ 9.00-5.7%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.04+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Arouca over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.3%
@ 1.81+0.0%
Under
48.7%
@ 1.90-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Arouca over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.0%
@ 5.03-4.3%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.13+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Arouca over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
@ 10.50-5.9%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Under 6.5
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+1.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Under 5.5
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
+0.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+2.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+2.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+2.2%
Over 19.5 fouls
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+4.3%
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
-
-
+2.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
85.0%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.09
-0.1%
Under 4.5
82.9%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.08
-1.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.8%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
+4.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.19
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-
+4.9%
Over 2.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
1.23
Betfair
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+3.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
78.6%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
-1.3%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.21
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+1.7%
Away +2 handicap
78.0%
1.17
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+2.4%
Under 11.5 corners
77.6%
1.32
Unibet
1.35
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+7.9%
Over 1.5
76.0%
1.25
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+1.7%
Over 21.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.6%
1.32
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+3.0%
Home or Away
73.3%
1.28
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
+0.6%
Under 5.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.9%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+2.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
1.36
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
+2.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Estoril
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yanis Begraoui50%
Ferro0%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
João Carvalho0%
Xeka0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Fernando Medrano0%
Ricard Sánchez0%
André Lacximicant0%
Ismael Sierra Arnal0%
Pedro Carvalho0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ismael Sierra Arnal50%
Xeka33%
Ferro25%
Fernando Medrano25%
Ricard Sánchez25%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
João Carvalho0%
Yanis Begraoui0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
André Lacximicant0%
Pedro Carvalho0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fernando Medrano25%
Pedro Carvalho25%
Ferro0%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
João Carvalho0%
Yanis Begraoui0%
Xeka0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Ricard Sánchez0%
André Lacximicant0%
Ismael Sierra Arnal0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
João Carvalho25%
Yanis Begraoui25%
André Lacximicant25%
Ferro0%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
Xeka0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Fernando Medrano0%
Ricard Sánchez0%
Ismael Sierra Arnal0%
Pedro Carvalho0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
Arouca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Barbero75%
Jose Fontán25%
Dylan Nandín25%
Espen Van Ee25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Naïs Djouahra0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Hyun-ju Lee0%
Mateo Flores0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Javi Sánchez50%
Dylan Nandín50%
Hyun-ju Lee33%
Ivan Barbero25%
Orest Lebedenko25%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena25%
Naïs Djouahra0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Naïs Djouahra50%
Hyun-ju Lee33%
Pablo Gozálbez25%
Alfonso Trezza25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Ivan Barbero0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Dylan Nandín0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Barbero25%
Naïs Djouahra25%
Taichi Fukui25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Dylan Nandín0%
Pedro Santos0%
Hyun-ju Lee0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Estoril's squad is €15m more valuable than Arouca's (€42m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Estoril's attack is €12m more valuable than Arouca's (€24m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Estoril and Arouca have a similar midfield value (both €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Estoril's defence is €2m more valuable than Arouca's (€10m vs €8m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Casa Pia