Estoril vs Benfica Result & Analysis

The model clearly favours a Benfica win, giving the away side a 66 % chance of triumph against Estoril’s 13 % home-side win probability and a 21 % draw likelihood. The 66 % rating reflects Benfica’s strong away form, scoring 1.91 goals per game while conceding only 0.82 against weaker opponents, versus Estoril’s modest 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded at home against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to an open game, yet the most probable total is 2 goals, with a 22 % chance of that outcome. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Benfica, carrying an 10.8 % probability.

The model’s suggested picks include a 91.6 % chance of over 19.5 fouls, an 88.2 % probability of over 2.5 cards, an 82.6 % chance of over 1.5 goals, a 74.6 % likelihood of over 3.5 cards, and a 70.8 % probability of over 23.5 fouls, while over 21.5 fouls has an 83.1 % chance of missing. All selections are presented with their exact percentages, and the only match-result pick is the away win.

The match finished 1-3 in favour of Benfica, extending their two-game winning run. The Pythia model had correctly called the away win, giving it a 66 % probability. It also predicted a 3-goal total, the most likely scoreline being 1-2, though the game produced 4 goals. The model’s selections performed well: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 91.6 %, Over 2.5 cards hit at 88.2 %, Over 1.5 hit at 82.6 %, and Over 3.5 cards hit at 74.6 %. The other two picks, Over 21.5 fouls at 83.1 % and Over 23.5 fouls at 70.8 %, missed. Overall, the model’s forecast was largely accurate.