This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Famalicao
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.83
1.36
0.43
1.25
1.19
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.17
0.67
1.33
0.67
3.00
vs Similar (13)
1.54
0.31
1.38
0.00
1.80
0.80
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.73
2.00
0.67
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.6%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.7%
2-0
7.6%
1-2 ✓
7.3%
0-2
5.2%
Estoril goals ↓
Famalicao goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
7.7%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.6%
14%
7.3%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.6%
8.8%
5.1%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.5%
4.1%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Estoril goals (down), columns = Famalicao goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.71
Sporting CP
2.43
Rebordosa
2.40
Anadia
2.33
Santa Clara
2.33
Alverca
2.33
Amarante
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
SC Braga
2.25
GIL Vicente
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Leixoes
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Torreense
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Varzim
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Operário
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
Moreirense
2.00
Chaves
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
Farense
2.00
Cinfães
1.75
Brito
1.75
Lusitânia
1.75
Vila Real
1.75
O Elvas
1.60
FC Porto
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Amora
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
Arouca
1.50
Academica
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Sanjoanense
1.33
Caldas
1.33
Rio Ave
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Atlético Malveira
1.02
Vila Meã
1.02
Portalegrense
1.02
Florgrade
1.02
Correlhã
1.02
Vitória de Sernache
1.02
Nazarenos
1.02
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.02
Valenciano
1.02
Castro Daire
1.02
Rebordelo
1.02
Espinho
1.02
Uniao Nogueirense
1.02
Naval 1893
1.02
Portimonense B
1.02
AD Fornos Algodres
1.02
Resende
1.02
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.02
Silves
1.02
Vidago
1.02
Vila Caíz
1.02
Charneca Caparica
1.02
Oriental Lisboa
1.02
Angrense
1.02
Ançã
1.02
Sourense
1.02
Celoricense
1.02
AD Portomosense
1.02
Alcochetense
1.02
Fayal
1.02
Gouveia
1.02
Samora Correir
1.02
Estrela Calheta
1.02
Ribeira Brava
1.02
Aparecida GO
1.02
Mirandela
1.02
SC Celoricense
1.02
Almodôvar
1.02
Mosteirense
1.02
Águias do Moradal
1.02
Urzelinense
1.02
Celeirós
1.02
Quarteirense
1.02
AR São Martinho
1.02
Carregal
1.02
Juventude Évora
1.02
Pontassolense
1.02
Fazendense
1.02
AD Marco 09
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Leça
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Estoril
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Estrela
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Vizela
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Monção
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Portel
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Nacional
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Tondela
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Estoril is 0.50 points worse than Famalicao in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.29
Amarante
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Comércio Indústria
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Arouca
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
Anadia
2.67
Alverca
2.67
Vilaverdense
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Sanjoanense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
Farense
2.33
Cinfães
2.25
Sporting CP
2.14
FC Porto
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Leça
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
AVS
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
Varzim
1.67
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
SC Braga
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Rio Ave
1.50
Moreirense
1.33
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
Atlético Malveira
1.27
Vila Meã
1.27
Portalegrense
1.27
Florgrade
1.27
Correlhã
1.27
Vitória de Sernache
1.27
Nazarenos
1.27
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.27
Valenciano
1.27
Castro Daire
1.27
Rebordelo
1.27
Espinho
1.27
Uniao Nogueirense
1.27
Naval 1893
1.27
Portimonense B
1.27
AD Fornos Algodres
1.27
Resende
1.27
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.27
Silves
1.27
Vidago
1.27
Vila Caíz
1.27
Charneca Caparica
1.27
Oriental Lisboa
1.27
Angrense
1.27
Ançã
1.27
Sourense
1.27
Celoricense
1.27
AD Portomosense
1.27
Alcochetense
1.27
Fayal
1.27
Gouveia
1.27
Samora Correir
1.27
Estrela Calheta
1.27
Ribeira Brava
1.27
Aparecida GO
1.27
Mirandela
1.27
SC Celoricense
1.27
Almodôvar
1.27
Mosteirense
1.27
Águias do Moradal
1.27
Urzelinense
1.27
Celeirós
1.27
Quarteirense
1.27
AR São Martinho
1.27
Carregal
1.27
Juventude Évora
1.27
Pontassolense
1.27
Fazendense
1.27
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
GIL Vicente
1.25
O Elvas
1.20
Tirsense
1.14
Leixoes
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Monção
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Operário
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Tondela
1.00
Academica
1.00
Brito
0.75
Vila Real
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Amora
0.50
Estrela
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Portel
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Estoril
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Estoril is 1.00 goals worse than Famalicao in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Operário
0.00
Estoril
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Benfica
0.29
Santa Clara
0.33
FC Serpa
0.50
Atlético CP
0.50
Brito
0.50
Alpendorada
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Academica
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
FC Porto
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Torreense
1.00
Machico
1.00
Anadia
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
Louletano
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Portel
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Arouca
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
Chaves
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Sanjoanense
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Alverca
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Rio Ave
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Atlético Malveira
1.79
Vila Meã
1.79
Portalegrense
1.79
Florgrade
1.79
Correlhã
1.79
Vitória de Sernache
1.79
Nazarenos
1.79
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.79
Valenciano
1.79
Castro Daire
1.79
Rebordelo
1.79
Espinho
1.79
Uniao Nogueirense
1.79
Naval 1893
1.79
Portimonense B
1.79
AD Fornos Algodres
1.79
Resende
1.79
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.79
Silves
1.79
Vidago
1.79
Vila Caíz
1.79
Charneca Caparica
1.79
Oriental Lisboa
1.79
Angrense
1.79
Ançã
1.79
Sourense
1.79
Celoricense
1.79
AD Portomosense
1.79
Alcochetense
1.79
Fayal
1.79
Gouveia
1.79
Samora Correir
1.79
Estrela Calheta
1.79
Ribeira Brava
1.79
Aparecida GO
1.79
Mirandela
1.79
SC Celoricense
1.79
Almodôvar
1.79
Mosteirense
1.79
Águias do Moradal
1.79
Urzelinense
1.79
Celeirós
1.79
Quarteirense
1.79
AR São Martinho
1.79
Carregal
1.79
Juventude Évora
1.79
Pontassolense
1.79
Fazendense
1.79
Amarante
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Leça
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Monção
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Tondela
2.00
Farense
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Amora
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Trofense
3.00
Paredes
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Vizela
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Estrela
4.00
Valpaços
5.00
Estoril is 0.50 goals better than Famalicao in terms of goals conceded per game (0.00 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Estoril
For 4.4 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Famalicao
For 6.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 19.0 · Against 16.5 · Total 35.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estoril
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.2
8.4
4.3
4.5
4.0
28.6
29.1
28.2
vs Stronger (13)
8.8
8.7
9.0
4.1
4.0
4.2
27.8
27.9
27.7
vs Similar (34)
8.7
9.5
8.0
4.4
4.9
4.0
28.7
29.1
28.2
vs Weaker (3)
9.5
8.0
11.0
3.3
3.0
3.5
34.0
37.0
31.0
% over line
38%
42%
33%
64%
71%
58%
90%
96%
83%
% under line
62%
58%
67%
36%
29%
42%
10%
4%
17%
This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Famalicao
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.8
10.7
5.4
5.3
5.6
31.5
31.6
31.5
vs Stronger (10)
10.3
9.5
11.5
4.9
5.5
4.0
27.7
29.5
25.0
vs Similar (21)
10.9
9.8
12.4
5.5
4.8
6.6
33.7
33.5
33.9
vs Weaker (19)
9.6
10.0
9.3
5.6
6.1
5.3
31.4
30.3
32.1
% over line
47%
42%
52%
78%
80%
76%
91%
92%
91%
% under line
53%
58%
48%
22%
20%
24%
9%
8%
9%
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Portimonense
12.2
Penafiel
11.6
Oliveirense
11.5
União de Leiria
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
Torreense
10.8
Farense
10.7
Vizela
10.6
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Chaves
10.5
Famalicao
10.4
Nacional
10.4
Rio Ave
10.2
Arouca
10.1
Academico Viseu
10.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.0
Guimaraes
9.9
Feirense
9.7
Benfica
9.6
Estrela
9.6
Leixoes
9.5
Felgueiras 1932
9.5
Sporting CP
9.5
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Casa Pia
9.3
Tondela
9.2
Maritimo
9.1
FC Porto
9.1
SC Braga
9.0
Estoril
8.9
AVS
8.7
Pacos Ferreira
8.7
GIL Vicente
8.6
Mafra
8.5
Moreirense
8.3
Santa Clara
8.2
Alverca
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
Santa Clara
6.4
Felgueiras 1932
6.4
Pacos Ferreira
6.2
FC Porto
6.0
Sporting CP
5.8
Oliveirense
5.7
Leixoes
5.7
Famalicao
5.7
Casa Pia
5.7
União de Leiria
5.7
Vizela
5.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.6
Chaves
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.5
Torreense
5.5
Guimaraes
5.5
Maritimo
5.5
Arouca
5.5
SC Covilha
5.4
AVS
5.4
Estrela
5.3
Feirense
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.2
Penafiel
5.1
Nacional
5.1
Rio Ave
5.0
Tondela
5.0
Academico Viseu
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.9
Vilaverdense
4.8
Alverca
4.8
SC Braga
4.6
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
Estoril
4.5
Mafra
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
31.2
Estrela
30.7
Santa Clara
29.9
Moreirense
29.7
Vilaverdense
28.5
Estoril
28.4
Farense
28.2
SC Covilha
28.2
Guimaraes
28.2
Rio Ave
28.2
GIL Vicente
27.7
Casa Pia
27.7
AVS
27.6
Arouca
27.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
27.5
Nacional
27.4
Sporting CP
26.5
FC Porto
26.4
SC Braga
25.5
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Benfica
24.5
Tondela
20.2
Leixoes
18.2
Pacos Ferreira
18.0
Portimonense
17.3
Oliveirense
16.6
Academico Viseu
16.4
União de Leiria
16.4
Vizela
15.9
Alverca
15.5
Feirense
15.4
Maritimo
15.0
Mafra
14.9
Chaves
14.3
Penafiel
13.4
Felgueiras 1932
13.0
Torreense
10.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.4%
Under 9.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.4%
Under 3.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.5%
Under 21.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Estoril or Draw✗ Miss
70.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Estoril + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Estoril or Famalicao✓ Hit
71.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Estoril + Famalicao
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Famalicao✓ Hit
58.9%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Draw + Famalicao
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Estoril over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.6%
Under
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Estoril, so a minus line means Estoril give that many goals of a start and Famalicao receive them. At -1, Estoril must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Estoril win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Estoril)Actual: Famalicao
Estoril -2
7.5%
Draw -2
12.6%
Famalicao +2
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Estoril)Actual: Famalicao
Estoril -1
20.1%
Draw -1
21.1%
Famalicao +1
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Estoril)Actual: Draw
Estoril +1
70.1%
Draw +1
17.3%
Famalicao -1
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Estoril)Actual: Estoril
Estoril +2
87.4%
Draw +2
8.7%
Famalicao -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Estoril
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
0.79
0.64
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.20
1.20
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.57
1.12
0.38
1.08
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Famalicao
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.33
0.50
0.14
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.08
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (11)
0.45
0.27
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Estoril over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Estoril
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.80
0.79
0.64
1.06
0.94
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.57
0.40
0.20
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.86
1.00
0.88
1.08
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Famalicao
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.86
0.29
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.17
0.00
0.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.23
0.88
0.00
1.40
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.45
1.67
0.67
0.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Estoril over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Estoril
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yanis Begraoui35%
João Carvalho18%
André Lacximicant14%
Nodar Lominadze12%
Alejandro Marqués12%
Patrick de Paula11%
Rafik Guitane10%
Peixinho9%
Xeka8%
Ricard Sánchez8%
Ferro7%
Tiago Parente7%
Felix Bacher6%
Kévin Boma5%
Jordan Holsgrove3%
Pizzi0%
Joel Robles0%
Pedro Amaral0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Jandro Orellana0%
Gonçalo Costa0%
Martin Turk0%
Pedro Carvalho0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Patrick de Paula44%
Antef Tsoungui35%
Ricard Sánchez35%
Nodar Lominadze25%
Tiago Brito25%
João Carvalho24%
Jordan Holsgrove24%
Kévin Boma24%
Tiago Parente21%
Pedro Carvalho19%
André Lacximicant18%
Ferro15%
Fabrício Garcia14%
Gonçalo Costa12%
Felix Bacher12%
Pedro Amaral11%
Jandro Orellana11%
Rafik Guitane10%
Joel Robles10%
Peixinho9%
Xeka8%
Alejandro Marqués4%
Yanis Begraoui3%
Pizzi0%
Martin Turk0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Carvalho27%
Jordan Holsgrove18%
Pizzi17%
Ricard Sánchez15%
Rafik Guitane13%
André Lacximicant9%
Pedro Amaral7%
Gonçalo Costa6%
Jandro Orellana5%
Kévin Boma5%
Pedro Carvalho4%
Yanis Begraoui3%
Ferro0%
Joel Robles0%
Felix Bacher0%
Xeka0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Alejandro Marqués0%
Patrick de Paula0%
Nodar Lominadze0%
Martin Turk0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Parente0%
Tiago Brito0%
Peixinho0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Lacximicant27%
Yanis Begraoui24%
João Carvalho18%
Peixinho9%
Alejandro Marqués8%
Nodar Lominadze6%
Jordan Holsgrove6%
Rafik Guitane3%
Ferro0%
Pizzi0%
Joel Robles0%
Felix Bacher0%
Xeka0%
Pedro Amaral0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Jandro Orellana0%
Ricard Sánchez0%
Gonçalo Costa0%
Kévin Boma0%
Patrick de Paula0%
Martin Turk0%
Pedro Carvalho0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Parente0%
Tiago Brito0%
Famalicao
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yassir Zabiri25%
Justin De Haas16%
Sorriso15%
Umar Abubakar14%
Mathias De Amorim13%
Antoine Joujou13%
Gustavo Sá12%
Gil Dias12%
Rodrigo Pinheiro10%
Pedro Santos9%
Ibrahima Ba5%
Léo Realpe4%
Rafa Soares4%
Simon Elisor3%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Lazar Carević0%
Gustavo García0%
Otar Mamageishvili0%
Pedro Bondo0%
Romeo Beney0%
Marcos Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pedro Bondo35%
Tom Van De Looi28%
Mathias De Amorim27%
Gil Dias24%
Justin De Haas23%
Gustavo Sá22%
Sorriso21%
Ibrahima Ba19%
Marcos Peña19%
Rodrigo Pinheiro17%
Rafa Soares17%
Gustavo García17%
Yassir Zabiri17%
Léo Realpe12%
Lazar Carević12%
Simon Elisor9%
Pedro Santos9%
Romeo Beney7%
Umar Abubakar5%
Otar Mamageishvili0%
Antoine Joujou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gil Dias18%
Rafa Soares12%
Sorriso12%
Pedro Santos9%
Rodrigo Pinheiro7%
Mathias De Amorim7%
Gustavo Sá6%
Simon Elisor6%
Ibrahima Ba5%
Antoine Joujou4%
Léo Realpe4%
Justin De Haas0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Lazar Carević0%
Gustavo García0%
Otar Mamageishvili0%
Pedro Bondo0%
Romeo Beney0%
Umar Abubakar0%
Marcos Peña0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yassir Zabiri33%
Gil Dias12%
Simon Elisor12%
Sorriso12%
Gustavo Sá9%
Umar Abubakar9%
Mathias De Amorim7%
Justin De Haas3%
Léo Realpe0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Rafa Soares0%
Rodrigo Pinheiro0%
Lazar Carević0%
Gustavo García0%
Otar Mamageishvili0%
Antoine Joujou0%
Pedro Bondo0%
Pedro Santos0%
Romeo Beney0%
Marcos Peña0%
Ibrahima Ba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
AMA (6)
€1m
Estoril's squad is €15m less valuable than Famalicao's (€42m vs €57m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
MOR (5)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Estoril's attack is €8m more valuable than Famalicao's (€24m vs €16m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Estoril's midfield is €12m less valuable than Famalicao's (€8m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
ACA (4)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Estoril's defence is €11m less valuable than Famalicao's (€10m vs €22m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Arouca
Alverca
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
Nacional
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
Torreense