The match between Estrela and Famalicao is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 30% for a home victory, 31% for a draw, and 39% for the visitors to come out on top. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 28% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability. Estrela, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Famalicao, on the road against a weaker side, has an average of 0.0 goals scored and conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1% with a 6% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (96.9% with a 4% edge), and Over 19.5 fouls (96.7%). The recent form shows Estrela unbeaten in their last five matches, while Famalicao is coming off a draw. Both sides have a low scoring trend, making the predicted 1-1 outcome a sensible reflection of the data.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Estrela win
31.4%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 3.04
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.11
Betano
3.10
Dafabet
3.10
Draw
30.7%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.15
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.25
1xBet
3.22
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.20
Famalicao win
38.0%
Avg Implied 39.5% · @ 2.37
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.45
Dafabet
2.45
1xBet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Estrela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.90
1.29
1.50
1.38
2.25
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.27
1.20
1.60
1.17
2.83
vs Similar (19)
1.42
1.68
1.33
1.44
1.50
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Famalicao
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.13
1.57
0.86
0.88
1.38
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.88
1.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.87
1.40
0.20
0.90
1.20
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
0.86
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.1%
@ 1.37+0.9%
Under 1.5
30.9%
@ 2.93-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.4%
@ 2.17-2.1%
Under 2.5
58.6%
@ 1.67+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.22
Unibet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.17
Under
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.8%
@ 3.98-2.6%
Under 3.5
79.2%
@ 1.22+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.20
Betfair
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.04
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Both teams to score
Yes
48.7%
@ 1.86-1.3%
No
51.3%
@ 1.86+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
No
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 5.71+6.7%
0-0
11.0%@ 7.90+5.3%
0-1
10.6%@ 6.82+4.1%
1-0
9.3%@ 7.85+3.7%
1-2
8.1%@ 8.98+3.2%
0-2
7.4%@ 10.34+3.1%
2-1
7.2%@ 10.23+2.9%
2-0
5.9%@ 13.64+2.6%
Estrela goals ↓
Famalicao goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.4%
3.0%
0.9%
1
9.3%
14%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
5.9%
7.2%
4.5%
1.8%
0.6%
3
2.2%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Estrela goals (down), columns = Famalicao goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Estrela is 0.76 points worse than Famalicao in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Estrela is 0.12 goals worse than Famalicao in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Estrela is 0.79 goals worse than Famalicao in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Estrela is 4.5 percentage points worse than Famalicao in terms of average possession (47% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Estrela
For 2.9 · Against 5.6 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.6 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Famalicao
For 6.7 · Against 3.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 14.5 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estrela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.2
8.6
5.4
5.5
5.4
29.7
30.2
29.2
vs Stronger (16)
9.4
10.2
8.4
5.2
5.2
5.3
29.1
28.8
29.6
vs Similar (34)
8.7
8.7
8.7
5.5
5.6
5.4
30.0
31.0
29.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
35%
33%
36%
76%
75%
77%
94%
92%
96%
% under line
65%
67%
64%
24%
25%
23%
6%
8%
4%
This opponent (Famalicao) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Famalicao
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.5
10.8
5.2
5.3
5.0
32.0
31.5
32.4
vs Stronger (12)
10.4
10.4
10.4
5.4
5.6
5.3
31.2
34.0
29.1
vs Similar (24)
10.5
10.5
10.4
4.9
5.5
4.4
32.3
31.2
33.2
vs Weaker (14)
11.1
10.6
11.8
5.5
5.0
6.2
32.2
30.4
34.7
% over line
58%
57%
60%
68%
78%
59%
96%
96%
96%
% under line
42%
43%
40%
32%
22%
41%
4%
4%
4%
This opponent (Estrela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Rio Ave
10.4
Nacional
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.6
Academico Viseu
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Arouca
8.9
Guimaraes
8.5
Maritimo
8.1
SC Braga
8.1
Moreirense
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
5.9
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.6
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.5
Famalicao
5.4
Nacional
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
FC Porto
5.2
Sporting CP
5.1
Benfica
5.0
Rio Ave
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.0
Santa Clara
30.1
Estrela
29.9
Moreirense
29.5
Casa Pia
29.2
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Rio Ave
27.0
Nacional
26.9
Estoril
26.7
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Arouca
26.0
Benfica
25.8
Academico Viseu
25.3
SC Braga
24.7
Maritimo
24.6
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.5%
@ 1.76-3.3%
Under 9.5
50.5%
@ 1.97+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Under
Unibet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.5%
Under 3.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
92.3%
Under 21.5
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Estrela or Draw
63.1%
Avg Implied 60.3% · @ 1.55
Edge
+2.8%
31%
31%
38%
covers Estrela + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
10Bet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Estrela or Famalicao
69.0%
Avg Implied 70.5% · @ 1.33
Edge
-1.5%
31%
31%
38%
covers Estrela + Famalicao
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.38
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Betano
1.33
Draw or Famalicao
67.9%
Avg Implied 69.2% · @ 1.35
Edge
-1.2%
31%
31%
38%
covers Draw + Famalicao
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Estrela over/under 0.5
Over
66.6%
@ 1.41+0.5%
Under
33.4%
@ 2.75-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.79
Betano
2.77
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Estrela over/under 1.5
Over
30.0%
@ 2.94-1.6%
Under
70.0%
@ 1.36+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.16
Unibet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.90
Under
Betfair
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Estrela over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
@ 7.52-2.5%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.07+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Estrela over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
@ 17.38-3.0%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Famalicao over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
@ 1.30-1.8%
Under
30.2%
@ 3.27+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Famalicao over/under 1.5
Over
33.6%
@ 2.47-4.2%
Under
66.4%
@ 1.50+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Famalicao over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
@ 5.80-4.1%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.11+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
BetVictor
5.75
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Famalicao over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
@ 13.50-3.7%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Estrela, so a minus line means Estrela give that many goals of a start and Famalicao receive them. At -1, Estrela must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Estrela win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Estrela)
Estrela -2
4.0%
@ 17.00-1.3%
Draw -2
9.2%
@ 8.67-1.3%
Famalicao +2
86.7%
@ 1.08+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Handicap -1 (Estrela)
Estrela -1
13.3%
@ 6.72-0.1%
Draw -1
18.8%
@ 4.52-1.1%
Famalicao +1
67.9%
@ 1.34+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Away
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Handicap +1 (Estrela)
Estrela +1
63.1%
@ 1.56+5.5%
Draw +1
20.6%
@ 3.88-2.5%
Famalicao -1
16.3%
@ 4.64-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.60
Away
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Handicap +2 (Estrela)
Estrela +2
83.7%
@ 1.14+6.5%
Draw +2
10.9%
@ 6.22-3.3%
Famalicao -2
5.4%
@ 10.26-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Estrela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
0.67
0.44
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Famalicao
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.57
0.57
0.38
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.33
1.33
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.27
0.40
0.20
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
0.83
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.0%
@ 1.45+3.8%
Under 0.5
32.0%
@ 2.60-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.70
Pinnacle
2.69
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.3%
@ 3.12-0.5%
Under 1.5
70.7%
@ 1.33+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.15
Under
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.8%
@ 8.19-1.6%
Under 2.5
90.2%
@ 1.05+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
William Hil
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Estrela over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.1%
@ 2.37+1.0%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.52-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.54
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Estrela over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.2%
@ 8.33-2.0%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.05+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.50
1xBet
8.00
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Estrela over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.5%
@ 2.11+1.4%
Under
54.5%
@ 1.67-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.10
Unibet
2.06
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.65
Famalicao over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.3%
@ 6.66-2.6%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.08+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
Famalicao over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
@ 12.50-5.6%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Estrela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.20
0.79
1.00
0.75
1.38
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.27
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.79
1.16
0.67
1.00
0.90
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Famalicao
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.00
0.29
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.33
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.43
1.17
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.3%
@ 1.28+3.5%
Under 0.5
23.7%
@ 3.42-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.42
10Bet
3.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.7%
@ 2.31-3.5%
Under 1.5
63.3%
@ 1.56+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.35
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.34
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
William Hil
1.55
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.7%
@ 5.20-3.2%
Under 2.5
85.3%
@ 1.13+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.10
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Estrela over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.1%
@ 1.94+0.6%
Under
51.9%
@ 1.76-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Estrela over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.0%
@ 6.10-2.2%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.09+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Estrela over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
@ 11.50-5.4%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Famalicao over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.3%
@ 1.77+0.2%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.93-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Famalicao over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.1%
@ 4.91-1.7%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.14+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Famalicao over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
@ 10.25-5.8%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Under 5.5
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.1%
Over 19.5 fouls
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Over 21.5 fouls
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.7%
1.05
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.04
+3.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+2.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+1.6%
Home under 2.5 goals
90.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.05
+2.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
-
+2.6%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
+4.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.09
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
-
-
+2.2%
Away +2 handicap
86.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-
-
+2.6%
Over 2.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.3%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
+3.2%
Over 23.5 fouls
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+6.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+1.7%
Under 3.5
79.2%
1.22
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+2.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.28
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
+3.5%
Under 11.5 corners
73.8%
1.34
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
-
+5.4%
Over 25.5 fouls
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.33
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.34
Bet365
1.33
+0.5%
Over 3.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Estrela
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Leandro Antonetti100%
Abraham Marcus67%
Ianis Stoica33%
Bénito33%
Rafa Soares0%
Luan Patrick0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Eddy Doué0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eddy Doué67%
Luan Patrick33%
Leandro Antonetti33%
Bénito33%
Rafa Soares0%
Ianis Stoica0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rafa Soares33%
Ianis Stoica33%
Robinho33%
Eddy Doué33%
Luan Patrick0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Max Scholze0%
Bénito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Antonetti67%
Rafa Soares0%
Ianis Stoica0%
Luan Patrick0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Bénito0%
Eddy Doué0%
Famalicao
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Georgios Koutsias25%
Finn van Breemen25%
Gil Dias0%
Léo Realpe0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Rodrigo Pinheiro0%
Lazar Carević0%
Óscar Aranda0%
Pedro Bondo0%
Sorriso0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mathias De Amorim0%
Romeo Beney0%
Umar Abubakar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Finn van Breemen50%
Léo Realpe25%
Rodrigo Pinheiro25%
Mathias De Amorim25%
Romeo Beney25%
Gil Dias0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Georgios Koutsias0%
Lazar Carević0%
Óscar Aranda0%
Pedro Bondo0%
Sorriso0%
Pedro Santos0%
Umar Abubakar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gil Dias25%
Óscar Aranda25%
Léo Realpe0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Rodrigo Pinheiro0%
Georgios Koutsias0%
Lazar Carević0%
Pedro Bondo0%
Sorriso0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mathias De Amorim0%
Romeo Beney0%
Finn van Breemen0%
Umar Abubakar0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sorriso25%
Gil Dias0%
Léo Realpe0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Rodrigo Pinheiro0%
Georgios Koutsias0%
Lazar Carević0%
Óscar Aranda0%
Pedro Bondo0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mathias De Amorim0%
Romeo Beney0%
Finn van Breemen0%
Umar Abubakar0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Estrela's squad is €37m less valuable than Famalicao's (€20m vs €57m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Estrela's attack is €10m less valuable than Famalicao's (€6m vs €16m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Estrela's midfield is €17m less valuable than Famalicao's (€3m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Estrela's defence is €10m less valuable than Famalicao's (€11m vs €22m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia