Estrela vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Estrela are favoured to win this home fixture, with the model assigning a 56% chance of a victory, 25% for a draw and 19% for a Nacional win. The expected total goals hover near three, 2.9 to be precise, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.7% probability. Estrela’s home form against similar opposition shows they average 1.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded, while Nacional’s away record versus similar teams yields 0.85 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 92.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 91.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 84.4%, Over 3.5 cards at 79.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.4% (miss), Over 8.5 corners at 78.3%, and Over 23.5 fouls at 72.6%. The recent form narrative notes Estrela’s unbeaten run of five, while Nacional have just come off two consecutive defeats.

The pre-match favourite, Estrela, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-1 in favour of Nacional, an upset that snapped Estrela’s unbeaten run of five games. The model had called a home win with a 56% probability, but that pick was wrong. The model’s other selections performed largely as expected: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 92.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 91.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 84.4%, Over 3.5 cards at 79.7%, Over 8.5 corners at 78.3% and Over 23.5 fouls at 72.6% all hit, while Over 1.5 missed at 79.4%. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win.