Europa Point will find the match a tough test, but the model favours a College 1975 victory, with a 50% chance of winning, a 25% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a Europa Point win. The expected total goals is three, yet the most likely total is two, a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.8% chance. Europa Point averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home against similarly strong opponents, while College 1975, on the road, averages 1.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 5.5 (91.3%), Away +2 handicap (89.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.3%) and Away over 0.5 goals (83.4%). Europa Point’s recent form shows a draw after a 2-2 tie with Lynx, whereas College 1975 came off a 1-2 loss to Lions Gibraltar.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Europa Point win
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
College 1975 win
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Europa Point
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.97
1.00
2.73
1.60
3.20
vs Stronger (19)
0.95
3.47
0.90
3.20
1.00
3.78
vs Similar (9)
1.56
2.22
1.50
1.50
1.60
2.80
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
College 1975
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.93
0.73
2.07
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (22)
0.73
2.23
0.58
2.08
0.90
2.40
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.12
1.33
2.00
1.20
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.2%
Under 2.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
8.2%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.1%
0-0
7.0%
1-0
6.0%
2-2
5.7%
Europa Point goals ↓
College 1975 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
8.2%
7.5%
4.1%
1.6%
1
6.0%
13%
9.3%
5.0%
2.0%
2
4.4%
7.1%
5.7%
3.1%
1.2%
3
1.8%
2.9%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Europa Point goals (down), columns = College 1975 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Europa Point is 0.36 points better than College 1975 in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Europa Point is 0.73 goals better than College 1975 in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 0.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Europa Point is 0.73 goals worse than College 1975 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.77 vs 2.05).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Europa Point or Draw
54.9%
Avg Implied -
28%
27%
45%
covers Europa Point + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa Point or College 1975
73.1%
Avg Implied -
28%
27%
45%
covers Europa Point + College 1975
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or College 1975
71.9%
Avg Implied -
28%
27%
45%
covers Draw + College 1975
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Europa Point over/under 0.5
Over
70.9%
Under
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 0.5
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 3.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Europa Point, so a minus line means Europa Point give that many goals of a start and College 1975 receive them. At -1, Europa Point must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Europa Point win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Europa Point)
Europa Point -2
4.0%
Draw -2
8.2%
College 1975 +2
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Europa Point)
Europa Point -1
12.2%
Draw -1
15.9%
College 1975 +1
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Europa Point)
Europa Point +1
54.9%
Draw +1
21.2%
College 1975 -1
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Europa Point)
Europa Point +2
76.1%
Draw +2
14.0%
College 1975 -2
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Europa Point
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.50
0.86
0.50
1.38
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
1.26
0.56
1.00
0.40
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.44
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
College 1975
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.83
0.20
0.93
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (22)
0.14
1.00
0.08
0.92
0.20
1.10
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.38
0.67
1.00
0.40
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Europa Point
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.83
0.57
1.86
1.00
1.81
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
2.21
0.44
2.22
0.50
2.20
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.22
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
College 1975
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.10
0.53
1.13
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (22)
0.59
1.23
0.50
1.17
0.70
1.30
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Europa Point and College 1975 have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Europa Point and College 1975 have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Europa Point and College 1975 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Europa Point and College 1975 have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
Lynx
Glacis United
Mons Calpe