Europa Point faces Europa in a match that the model deems heavily tilted in favour of the away side. The probability of an away win stands at 75 %, with a 9 % chance of a home victory and a 16 % chance of a draw, making the away win the clear favourite. The model expects 3.5 goals on average, and the most likely total is three, with a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Europa, a 10.7 % chance. Europa’s away form is strong, scoring an average of 2.22 goals and conceding only 0.33 against weaker opponents, whereas Europa Point struggles at home against stronger sides, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 3.2 conceded. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.9 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3 %, Under 7.5 at 97.4 %, Away +2 handicap at 97.2 %, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 95.0 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 94.6 %, and Under 6.5 at 93.7 %. Both teams entered the match after recent draws, with Europa Point ending 2-2 against Lynx and Europa 2-2 against Glacis United.
Results analysis
Europa’s away form has been a bright spot, and the Pythia model’s pick of an away win at 79% probability was confirmed as the match finished 0-2. The prediction that the favoured result landed was spot on. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 99.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.5%, Away +2 handicap hit at 97.9%, Under 7.5 hit at 97.0%, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 95.6%, Home under 1.5 HT goals hit at 94.7%, and Away over 0.5 goals hit at 93.9%. Europa Point’s recent run of losses ended, while Europa extended its winning streak, underscoring the model’s accurate assessment of the match dynamics.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Europa Point win✗ Miss
7.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa win✓ Hit
78.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Europa Point
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
3.00
1.07
2.79
1.50
3.19
vs Stronger (19)
0.95
3.53
1.00
3.33
0.90
3.70
vs Similar (9)
1.56
2.22
1.50
1.50
1.60
2.80
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.87
2.19
1.00
2.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.14
1.62
1.00
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
2.50
0.62
2.75
1.00
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.8%
Under 1.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.3%
Under 2.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.0%
Under 3.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.4%
No
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2 ✓
11.0%
0-3
10.3%
1-2
8.5%
1-3
8.0%
0-1
7.2%
0-4
7.2%
1-1
6.7%
1-4
5.6%
Europa Point goals ↓
Europa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
7.2%
11%
10%
7.2%
1
1.6%
6.7%
8.5%
8.0%
5.6%
2
0.8%
2.4%
3.3%
3.1%
2.2%
3
0.2%
0.6%
0.9%
0.8%
0.6%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Europa Point goals (down), columns = Europa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Europa Point is 1.07 points worse than Europa in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Europa Point is 0.55 goals worse than Europa in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Europa Point is 1.99 goals worse than Europa in terms of goals conceded per game (2.77 vs 0.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Europa Point or Draw✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied -
7%
14%
79%
covers Europa Point + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa Point or Europa✓ Hit
85.7%
Avg Implied -
7%
14%
79%
covers Europa Point + Europa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Europa✓ Hit
92.9%
Avg Implied -
7%
14%
79%
covers Draw + Europa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Europa Point over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.9%
Under
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
76.9%
Under
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Europa Point, so a minus line means Europa Point give that many goals of a start and Europa receive them. At -1, Europa Point must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Europa Point win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Europa Point)Actual: Europa
Europa Point -2
0.4%
Draw -2
1.7%
Europa +2
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Europa Point)Actual: Europa
Europa Point -1
2.1%
Draw -1
5.0%
Europa +1
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Europa Point)Actual: Europa
Europa Point +1
21.4%
Draw +1
19.5%
Europa -1
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Europa Point)Actual: Draw
Europa Point +2
40.8%
Draw +2
21.4%
Europa -2
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Europa Point
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.93
0.50
1.38
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
1.33
0.62
1.12
0.40
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.40
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.47
1.25
0.50
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.62
0.50
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
1.44
0.31
1.88
0.50
1.00
0.12
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.4%
Under 0.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.2%
Under 1.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.1%
Under 2.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Europa Point
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.77
0.64
1.71
1.00
1.81
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
2.22
0.50
2.25
0.50
2.20
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.10
1.00
0.80
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.40
0.94
0.50
1.29
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.31
0.88
0.50
1.25
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.1%
Under 0.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.0%
Under 1.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.8%
Under 2.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 0.5 HT goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Europa Point and Europa have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Europa Point and Europa have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Europa Point and Europa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Europa Point and Europa have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →