Europa Point heads into the Gibraltar Premier Division clash at home, yet the model rates Lions Gibraltar as the clear favourite, assigning them a 64% chance of victory. This edge stems from Lions’ strong away form against weaker opponents, scoring an average of 2.25 goals while conceding only 0.75, compared with Europa’s home record of 1.1 goals scored and 3.2 conceded against stronger sides. The expected total goals hover around 3.6, with the most probable total being 3 goals at a 21% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Lions Gibraltar, carrying a 9.4% chance. Home win probability stands at 16%, draw at 20%, and away win at 64%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Away +2 handicap (93.6%), Under 6.5 (92.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (91.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.3%), Over 1.5 (88.3%), and Under 5.5 (84.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Europa Point win
13.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar win
66.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Europa Point
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.97
1.00
2.73
1.60
3.20
vs Stronger (19)
0.95
3.47
0.90
3.20
1.00
3.78
vs Similar (9)
1.56
2.22
1.50
1.50
1.60
2.80
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.73
2.00
1.57
1.75
1.88
vs Stronger (12)
1.67
2.58
1.67
1.67
1.67
3.50
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.33
1.00
1.75
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
2.78
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.7%
Under 1.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.1%
Under 2.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.4%
Under 3.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.6%
0-2
9.2%
1-1
8.8%
1-3
7.7%
0-3
7.4%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.0%
1-4
4.6%
Europa Point goals ↓
Lions Gibraltar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
6.8%
9.2%
7.4%
4.4%
1
2.5%
8.8%
9.6%
7.7%
4.6%
2
1.7%
4.2%
5.0%
4.0%
2.4%
3
0.6%
1.5%
1.7%
1.4%
0.8%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Europa Point goals (down), columns = Lions Gibraltar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Europa Point is 0.59 points worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Europa Point is 0.55 goals worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Europa Point is 1.14 goals worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals conceded per game (2.77 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Europa Point or Draw
33.3%
Avg Implied -
14%
19%
67%
covers Europa Point + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa Point or Lions Gibraltar
80.6%
Avg Implied -
14%
19%
67%
covers Europa Point + Lions Gibraltar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lions Gibraltar
86.1%
Avg Implied -
14%
19%
67%
covers Draw + Lions Gibraltar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Europa Point over/under 0.5
Over
64.9%
Under
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5
Over
91.0%
Under
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 3.5
Over
22.4%
Under
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Europa Point, so a minus line means Europa Point give that many goals of a start and Lions Gibraltar receive them. At -1, Europa Point must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Europa Point win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Europa Point)
Europa Point -2
1.4%
Draw -2
3.7%
Lions Gibraltar +2
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Europa Point)
Europa Point -1
5.1%
Draw -1
8.8%
Lions Gibraltar +1
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Europa Point)
Europa Point +1
33.3%
Draw +1
21.4%
Lions Gibraltar -1
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Europa Point)
Europa Point +2
54.7%
Draw +2
19.8%
Lions Gibraltar -2
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Europa Point
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.50
0.86
0.50
1.38
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
1.26
0.56
1.00
0.40
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.44
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.93
1.21
0.86
1.19
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
1.54
0.86
1.14
1.17
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.44
2.25
0.75
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.1%
Under 0.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.1%
Under 1.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.1%
Under 2.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Europa Point
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.83
0.57
1.86
1.00
1.81
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
2.21
0.44
2.22
0.50
2.20
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.22
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.79
0.93
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.15
0.71
0.86
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.56
1.25
0.50
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.0%
Under 0.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.8%
Under 1.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
67.1%
Under
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Europa Point and Lions Gibraltar have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Europa Point and Lions Gibraltar have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Europa Point and Lions Gibraltar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Europa Point and Lions Gibraltar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Mons Calpe