Europa Point’s recent draw streak has left them vulnerable at home, especially against a side that thrives on the road. The model therefore names an away win as the most likely result, assigning a 65% chance to Mons Calpe triumphing. The predicted outcome is a 1-2 scoreline, with a 9% probability, and the expected total goals hover at 3.8, centring around a 3-goal total with a 20% chance.
Europa Point averages only one goal scored and 3.33 conceded when facing stronger opponents at home, whereas Mons Calpe, playing away against weaker sides, averages 4.5 goals scored and just 0.25 conceded. This stark contrast explains the high likelihood of a victory for the visitors.
The model’s selections reinforce this narrative: Home under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Under 7.5 (95.8%), Away +2 handicap (93.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (92.5%), Under 6.5 (90.5%), Over 1.5 (90.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (86.8%), and Draw or Away (84.1%). Each pick is listed with its probability, and no other outcomes are given a win chance. The home win probability stands at 16%, the draw at 19%, and the away win at 65%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Europa Point win
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe win
66.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Europa Point
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.97
1.00
2.73
1.60
3.20
vs Stronger (19)
0.95
3.47
0.90
3.20
1.00
3.78
vs Similar (9)
1.56
2.22
1.50
1.50
1.60
2.80
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.50
1.79
1.43
2.50
1.56
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.29
1.33
2.67
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.07
1.73
2.00
1.43
2.12
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
3.12
0.38
1.75
0.50
4.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.3%
Under 1.5
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.8%
Under 2.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.4%
No
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.2%
1-1
8.0%
0-2
7.9%
1-3
7.8%
0-3
6.7%
0-1
5.5%
2-2
5.4%
1-4
5.0%
Europa Point goals ↓
Mons Calpe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
5.5%
7.9%
6.7%
4.2%
1
2.1%
8.0%
9.2%
7.8%
5.0%
2
1.7%
4.3%
5.4%
4.6%
2.9%
3
0.7%
1.7%
2.1%
1.8%
1.1%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Europa Point goals (down), columns = Mons Calpe goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Europa Point is 0.96 points worse than Mons Calpe in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Europa
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Europa Point is 0.92 goals worse than Mons Calpe in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Europa Point is 1.48 goals worse than Mons Calpe in terms of goals conceded per game (2.77 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Europa Point or Draw
33.7%
Avg Implied -
15%
19%
66%
covers Europa Point + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa Point or Mons Calpe
81.3%
Avg Implied -
15%
19%
66%
covers Europa Point + Mons Calpe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mons Calpe
85.0%
Avg Implied -
15%
19%
66%
covers Draw + Mons Calpe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Europa Point over/under 0.5
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5
Over
92.1%
Under
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5
Over
46.7%
Under
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 3.5
Over
25.2%
Under
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Europa Point, so a minus line means Europa Point give that many goals of a start and Mons Calpe receive them. At -1, Europa Point must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Europa Point win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Europa Point)
Europa Point -2
1.8%
Draw -2
4.1%
Mons Calpe +2
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Europa Point)
Europa Point -1
5.9%
Draw -1
9.1%
Mons Calpe +1
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Europa Point)
Europa Point +1
33.7%
Draw +1
20.6%
Mons Calpe -1
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Europa Point)
Europa Point +2
54.4%
Draw +2
19.2%
Mons Calpe -2
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Europa Point
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.50
0.86
0.50
1.38
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
1.26
0.56
1.00
0.40
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.44
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.79
0.64
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.80
1.00
0.71
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.12
0.50
0.00
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Europa Point
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.83
0.57
1.86
1.00
1.81
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
2.21
0.44
2.22
0.50
2.20
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.22
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.00
0.79
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
0.67
1.33
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.93
1.00
0.71
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.25
1.25
0.50
2.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Europa Point and Mons Calpe have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Europa Point and Mons Calpe have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Europa Point and Mons Calpe have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Europa Point and Mons Calpe have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United