Europa is the clear favourite to win against Glacis United, with a predicted win probability of 79%. The model's selection of Europa to win is largely due to their home form against weaker opponents, averaging 2.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded at home. Glacis United, on the other hand, has struggled away against stronger teams, scoring an average of 1.17 goals and conceding 3.17.
The expected total goals is 3.8, with the most likely total goals being 3. The most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 9.6%. Europa's home win percentage is 79%, while the draw percentage is 14% and the away win percentage is 7%.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 has a probability of 90%, suggesting a high chance of at least two goals being scored. The selection of Over 2.5 has a probability of 73.4%, indicating a likely high-scoring match.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Europa, fell short of the model’s 79 % home-win expectation, with the game ending 2-2 for a draw. The model’s call was therefore wrong. Europa’s recent form, a 2-2 draw, had them coming off a stalemate, while Glacis United also finished their last match 2-2. The model’s selections performed impressively: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 99.0 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.8 %, Home +2 handicap at 97.7 %, Under 7.5 at 95.9 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.8 %, Away under 1.5 2H goals at 95.4 %, and Home over 0.5 goals at 94.8 %. All eight picks were settled and hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Europa win✗ Miss
79.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
13.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glacis United win✗ Miss
7.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Europa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
0.87
2.20
0.93
1.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.60
1.20
1.62
1.00
1.57
1.43
vs Weaker (15)
2.53
0.53
2.86
0.86
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glacis United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.70
0.87
2.60
1.20
2.80
vs Stronger (22)
0.82
3.27
0.40
3.40
1.17
3.17
vs Similar (8)
1.62
1.12
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.0%
Under 1.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.4%
Under 2.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.0%
Under 3.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.6%
3-0
9.5%
2-1
8.3%
3-1
8.2%
4-0
7.0%
1-1
6.2%
4-1
6.0%
1-0
6.0%
Europa goals ↓
Glacis United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
1.3%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
1
6.0%
6.2%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
2
9.6%
8.3%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.5%
8.2%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
4
7.0%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Europa goals (down), columns = Glacis United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Europa is 1.53 points better than Glacis United in terms of average points per game (2.07 vs 0.55).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Europa is 1.14 goals better than Glacis United in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Europa is 1.81 goals better than Glacis United in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 2.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Europa or Draw✓ Hit
92.6%
Avg Implied -
79%
14%
7%
covers Europa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa or Glacis United✗ Miss
86.3%
Avg Implied -
79%
14%
7%
covers Europa + Glacis United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Glacis United✓ Hit
21.0%
Avg Implied -
79%
14%
7%
covers Draw + Glacis United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Europa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.8%
Under
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
79.4%
Under
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
56.6%
Under
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Europa, so a minus line means Europa give that many goals of a start and Glacis United receive them. At -1, Europa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Europa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Europa)Actual: Glacis United
Europa -2
39.5%
Draw -2
20.8%
Glacis United +2
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Europa)Actual: Glacis United
Europa -1
60.4%
Draw -1
18.6%
Glacis United +1
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Europa)Actual: Europa
Europa +1
92.6%
Draw +1
5.0%
Glacis United -1
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Europa)Actual: Europa
Europa +2
97.7%
Draw +2
1.8%
Glacis United -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Europa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
1.20
0.47
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (15)
1.40
0.27
1.86
0.43
1.00
0.12
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glacis United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.07
0.60
1.07
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (22)
0.36
1.36
0.30
1.50
0.42
1.25
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.25
1.20
0.20
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.5%
Under 0.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.0%
Under 1.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
23.2%
Under 2.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Europa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
75.9%
Under
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
23.3%
Under
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Europa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.40
1.00
0.47
1.27
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.53
1.00
0.50
1.29
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.27
1.00
0.43
1.25
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glacis United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.63
0.27
1.53
0.67
1.73
vs Stronger (22)
0.45
1.91
0.10
1.90
0.75
1.92
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.88
0.60
0.80
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
86.8%
Under 0.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
57.6%
Under 1.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.5%
Under 2.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Europa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
83.9%
Under
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 HT goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Europa's squad is €1m more valuable than Glacis United's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Europa and Glacis United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Europa and Glacis United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Europa and Glacis United have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Lynx
Europa Point
Mons Calpe