Europa’s dominance at home is clear, with a 78% chance of victory, 14% for a draw and 8% for a Hound Dogs win. The model’s pick is a home win, driven by Europa’s strong 2.75 average goals scored and only 1.0 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Hound Dogs struggle away, averaging just 0.67 goals scored and conceding 3.22 against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, a 9.8% probability. The match’s total goals most likely is three, with a 21% chance. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 98.8%, Home +2 handicap at 97.5%, Under 7.5 at 96.2%, Home over 0.5 goals at 94.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 94.2%, Home or Draw at 92.2%, Home +1 handicap at 92.2%, and Under 6.5 at 91.3%. Europa’s recent draw against Glacis United and Hound Dogs’ draw against College 1975 set the stage, but the venue advantage and form disparities keep Europa firmly in front.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Europa win
80.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
12.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs win
6.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Europa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.83
2.19
1.00
1.86
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.14
1.62
1.00
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
2.38
0.56
2.75
1.00
2.00
0.12
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
2.91
0.33
3.08
0.64
2.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
3.44
0.22
3.67
0.67
3.22
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
9% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.0%
Under 1.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73.6%
Under 2.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
53.2%
Under 3.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
10.0%
2-0
10.0%
3-1
8.1%
2-1
8.0%
4-0
7.6%
4-1
6.1%
1-0
6.1%
1-1
5.9%
Europa goals ↓
Hound Dogs goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
1.2%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
1
6.1%
5.9%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
2
10.0%
8.0%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
3
10%
8.1%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
7.6%
6.1%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Europa goals (down), columns = Hound Dogs goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Europa is 1.71 points better than Hound Dogs in terms of average points per game (2.07 vs 0.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Europa
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Europa is 1.51 goals better than Hound Dogs in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 0.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Europa is 2.22 goals better than Hound Dogs in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Europa or Draw
93.7%
Avg Implied -
81%
13%
6%
covers Europa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa or Hound Dogs
87.2%
Avg Implied -
81%
13%
6%
covers Europa + Hound Dogs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hound Dogs
19.1%
Avg Implied -
81%
13%
6%
covers Draw + Hound Dogs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Europa over/under 0.5
Over
95.1%
Under
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5
Over
80.4%
Under
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 3.5
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Europa, so a minus line means Europa give that many goals of a start and Hound Dogs receive them. At -1, Europa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Europa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Europa)
Europa -2
41.9%
Draw -2
20.9%
Hound Dogs +2
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Europa)
Europa -1
62.8%
Draw -1
18.1%
Hound Dogs +1
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Europa)
Europa +1
93.7%
Draw +1
4.4%
Hound Dogs -1
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Europa)
Europa +2
98.1%
Draw +2
1.5%
Hound Dogs -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Europa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
1.25
0.50
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.62
0.50
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.25
1.88
0.50
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.22
1.57
0.08
1.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.78
0.11
2.00
0.33
1.56
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
22% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Europa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Europa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.40
0.94
0.50
1.29
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.31
0.88
0.50
1.25
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.26
1.35
0.25
1.33
0.27
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.67
0.11
1.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Europa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Europa's squad is €1m more valuable than Hound Dogs's (€2m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Europa and Hound Dogs have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Europa and Hound Dogs have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Europa and Hound Dogs have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe