Europa are tipped to win, with a 50% chance of a home victory, a 25% draw probability and a 26% chance of a Magpies win. The match is expected to see 3.1 goals on average, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.5% chance. Europa, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Magpies, on the road, average 1.33 scored and 1.83 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7%, Under 7.5 at 98.5%, Under 6.5 at 96.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.9%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.3%, and Away under 1.5 2H goals at 91.0%. The model’s selection favours a home win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Europa win
50.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Magpies win
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Europa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.83
2.19
1.00
1.86
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.14
1.62
1.00
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
2.38
0.56
2.75
1.00
2.00
0.12
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.63
1.00
1.35
1.23
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
3.12
0.75
2.25
0.25
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.14
1.50
1.11
1.22
1.20
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.38
1.00
0.75
2.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
1-0
7.1%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
6.0%
0-0
5.3%
Europa goals ↓
Magpies goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.5%
3.5%
1.5%
0.5%
1
7.1%
11%
6.5%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.6%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.7%
6.0%
3.8%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.2%
2.8%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Europa goals (down), columns = Magpies goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Europa is 0.80 points better than Magpies in terms of average points per game (2.07 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Europa is 0.83 goals better than Magpies in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Europa is 0.68 goals better than Magpies in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Europa or Draw
75.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
25%
covers Europa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa or Magpies
75.4%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
25%
covers Europa + Magpies
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Magpies
49.5%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
25%
covers Draw + Magpies
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Europa over/under 0.5
Over
84.6%
Under
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 3.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 0.5
Over
71.9%
Under
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Europa, so a minus line means Europa give that many goals of a start and Magpies receive them. At -1, Europa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Europa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Europa)
Europa -2
13.5%
Draw -2
15.7%
Magpies +2
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Europa)
Europa -1
29.2%
Draw -1
21.3%
Magpies +1
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Europa)
Europa +1
75.1%
Draw +1
14.1%
Magpies -1
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Europa)
Europa +2
89.3%
Draw +2
7.2%
Magpies -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Europa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
1.25
0.50
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.62
0.50
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.25
1.88
0.50
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.72
0.61
0.67
0.92
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.62
0.50
1.25
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.60
0.90
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.7%
Under 0.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.2%
Under 1.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.7%
Under 2.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Europa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
64.5%
Under
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Europa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.40
0.94
0.50
1.29
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.31
0.88
0.50
1.25
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.44
0.72
0.50
1.25
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.50
0.25
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.87
0.50
0.60
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.6%
Under 0.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.9%
Under 1.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.7%
Under 2.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Europa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.8%
Under
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Europa and Magpies have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Europa and Magpies have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Europa and Magpies have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Europa and Magpies have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lions Gibraltar
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe