In the upcoming match between Europa and Mons Calpe in the Gibraltar Premier Division, the recent-form storyline suggests Europa is coming off a win against Mons Calpe, while Mons Calpe is coming off a defeat against Europa. However, Europa's home form is impressive, scoring 2.64 goals on average at home, while conceding just 1.09 goals. In contrast, Mons Calpe's away form is less convincing, scoring 2 goals on average away, while conceding 1 goal.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.9%. Europa is the favourite to win, with a 47% chance of a home win, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an away win. The model's selection is the Home win. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals as its selection, with a probability of 85.1%.
Results analysis
Europa's win extends their run, with a 4-1 victory over Mons Calpe. The actual result was a home win, which was the model's call, and it was correct. The model's selection, Home win, had a pre-match probability of 47%. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 85.1%. The model's other selections were not explicitly stated in the JSON. The final score was 4-1, and the most likely scores included 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Europa win✓ Hit
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe win✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Europa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.97
1.93
1.13
1.93
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.75
0.00
1.25
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (2)
3.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
5.00
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
2.40
0.70
2.70
1.10
2.10
0.30
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.50
1.73
1.53
2.73
1.47
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
2.00
1.00
2.25
1.50
1.75
vs Similar (12)
2.33
1.67
2.33
1.50
2.33
1.83
vs Weaker (10)
2.90
0.90
1.60
1.00
4.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.1%
Under 2.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.0%
Under 3.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.4%
No
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.4%
1-0
5.9%
3-1
5.7%
0-0
4.7%
Europa goals ↓
Mons Calpe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
4.3%
3.8%
1.8%
0.7%
1
5.9%
11%
7.1%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.4%
9.2%
6.6%
3.2%
1.1%
3
4.0%
5.7%
4.1%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.9%
2.7%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Europa goals (down), columns = Mons Calpe goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Europa is 0.11 points better than Mons Calpe in terms of average points per game (2.07 vs 1.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Europa is 0.37 goals worse than Mons Calpe in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
Europa is 0.52 goals better than Mons Calpe in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Europa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.13
0.60
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.88
0.00
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.40
1.50
0.60
0.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
0.73
0.67
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.83
1.17
0.83
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.40
0.40
0.20
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Europa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Lions Gibraltar
Lynx
Magpies
Europa Point
Manchester 62
College 1975
Glacis United
Hound Dogs