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Europa vs St Joseph S Fc Result & Analysis

Date: 11/04/2026
Time: 14:30
Final 0-0
Europa
Europa
Vs
17%
22%
60%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
St Joseph S Fc
St Joseph S Fc
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Europa's recent win over Mons Calpe has given them a boost, but they face a tough test against St Joseph S Fc. The model predicts an away win, with St Joseph S Fc having a 60% chance of victory. Europa's home win percentage stands at 17%, while the draw percentage is 22%. St Joseph S Fc's away win percentage is 60%. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.5%. Europa's home form has seen them score an average of 0 goals and concede 1.67 per game, while St Joseph S Fc's away form has seen them score 1.6 goals and concede 0.6 per game. The model's selections include Over 1.5, with an 83% probability.

Results analysis

In a stunning upset, Europa's unbeaten run at home came to an end as they were held to a 0-0 draw by St Joseph S Fc, extending the latter's run of draws away from home. This result was a surprise, as the pre-match favourite, St Joseph S Fc, was predicted to win with a 60% probability. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect. The model's call on the match's outcome was wrong, as the actual result was a draw. The model's selection for Over 1.5 goals, with an 83% probability, missed, while the most likely score, 1-1, was predicted to occur with a 10.5% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Europa win✗ Miss
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc win✗ Miss
60.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

EuropaEuropa

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W01L13L51W10W00D60W50W31W30WA·EUR21/12H·ST 09/01A·LIN18/01H·GLA26/01A·COL07/02H·LIN12/02H·HOU22/02A·MAN02/03H·LYN21/03A·LIO04/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.100.932.131.132.070.73
vs Stronger (6)0.502.000.001.671.002.33
vs Similar (3)3.000.672.001.003.500.50
vs Weaker (21)2.430.672.731.002.100.30
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-740W10W41W40W60W40W01L70W01L10WH·MAG20/12A·EUR09/01A·LIN14/01A·GLA17/01H·HOU25/01A·LIO07/02H·LYN21/02A·EUR03/03A·LIN21/03H·LYN04/04
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.470.633.470.873.470.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.001.400.502.501.330.67
vs Weaker (25)3.960.483.920.624.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.7%
Under 2.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.4%
0-1
8.1%
1-3
6.9%
0-3
6.5%
0-0 ✓
5.3%
2-2
5.2%
Europa goals ↓
St Joseph S Fc goals →
01234
05.3%8.1%9.4%6.5%3.4%
13.6%10%9.9%6.9%3.6%
22.4%5.0%5.2%3.6%1.9%
30.9%1.8%1.8%1.3%0.7%
40.2%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Europa goals (down), columns = St Joseph S Fc goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Europa is 0.26 points worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of average points per game (2.07 vs 2.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Europa is 1.59 goals worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 3.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
Europa is 0.15 goals worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 0.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

EuropaEuropa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D11D20W00D00D40W10W20W30WA·EUR21/12H·ST 09/01A·LIN18/01H·GLA26/01A·COL07/02H·LIN12/02H·HOU22/02A·MAN02/03H·LYN21/03A·LIO04/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.501.200.600.730.40
vs Stronger (6)0.170.830.000.670.331.00
vs Similar (3)1.330.672.001.001.000.50
vs Weaker (21)1.140.381.450.550.800.20
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D30W20W10W30W00D10W00D00DH·MAG20/12A·EUR09/01A·LIN14/01A·GLA17/01H·HOU25/01A·LIO07/02H·LYN21/02A·EUR03/03A·LIN21/03H·LYN04/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.231.530.331.400.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.600.200.000.501.000.00
vs Weaker (25)1.640.241.770.311.500.17
Clean sheet %80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Europa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
MAG (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
MAG (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
EUR wins
0
Draws
7
SJS wins

Head-to-head

Europa vs St Joseph S Fc · H/A from EUR
DateH/AGameScore
09/01/26HEUR Vs St Joseph S Fc0-1
26/09/25ASt Joseph S Fc Vs EUR2-1
19/04/25ASt Joseph S Fc Vs EUR2-1
07/03/25ASt Joseph S Fc Vs EUR2-1
01/11/24HEUR Vs St Joseph S Fc1-3
27/01/24HEUR Vs St Joseph S Fc0-1
16/09/23ASt Joseph S Fc Vs EUR3-0
09/04/23HEUR Vs St Joseph S Fc3-0

EuropaEuropa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26ALions Gibraltar Vs EUR0-3
21/03/26HEUR Vs Lynx3-1
02/03/26AManchester 62 Vs EUR0-5
22/02/26HEUR Vs Hound Dogs6-0
12/02/26HEUR Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC0-0
07/02/26ACollege 1975 Vs EUR0-1
26/01/26HEUR Vs Glacis United5-1
18/01/26ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs EUR3-1
09/01/26HEUR Vs St Joseph S Fc0-1
21/12/25AEuropa Point Vs EUR0-3

St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26HSJS Vs Lynx1-0
21/03/26ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs SJS1-0
03/03/26AEuropa Point Vs SJS0-7
21/02/26HSJS Vs Lynx0-1
07/02/26ALions Gibraltar Vs SJS0-4
25/01/26HSJS Vs Hound Dogs6-0
17/01/26AGlacis United Vs SJS0-4
14/01/26ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs SJS1-4
09/01/26AEuropa Vs SJS0-1
20/12/25HSJS Vs Magpies4-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Europa
Europa
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.08
HomeLWDWW2.04
AwayWLWWW2.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%64%68%
AVG goals3.183.203.16
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %72%68%76%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored2.202.202.20
Conceded0.981.000.96
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet42%44%40%
Corners---
Cards---
St Joseph S Fc
St Joseph S Fc
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW2.46
HomeWWWLW2.31
AwayWWWWL2.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %78%73%83%
AVG goals3.723.583.88
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %72%77%67%
Over 3.5 %58%50%67%
Scored3.062.773.38
Conceded0.660.810.50
BTTS44%46%42%
Clean Sheet48%42%54%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC2772
85%
2.7
8917+72
3.9
93%
81%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.30.6
-
2St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc2763
74%
2.3
9617+79
4.2
81%
74%
70%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0013.60.6
-
3EuropaEuropa2756
67%
2.1
5321+32
2.7
74%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Mons CalpeMons Calpe2753
63%
2.0
6335+28
3.6
93%
78%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
5Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar2743
48%
1.6
5344+9
3.6
89%
70%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
6LynxLynx2734
37%
1.3
3845-7
3.1
70%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
7MagpiesMagpies2228
36%
1.3
2532-7
2.6
68%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
8Europa PointEuropa Point2222
32%
1.0
3161-30
4.2
86%
82%
55%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.8
-
9Manchester 62Manchester 622217
23%
0.8
2879-51
4.9
86%
82%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.6
-
10College 1975College 19752214
14%
0.6
1545-30
2.7
68%
36%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
11Glacis UnitedGlacis United2212
14%
0.5
1857-39
3.4
86%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.6
-
12Hound DogsHound Dogs228
5%
0.4
1066-56
3.5
91%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →

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