Excelsior Virton’s recent 2-game winning streak contrasts with Francs Borains’ return from a defeat, yet the model still favors an away win at 40%. The predicted outcome is a 1-1 draw, with a 12.2% chance, the single most likely scoreline. The average goals expected is 3.0, but the most probable total is 2 goals, at 23%. Virton, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, while Borains, as visitors, are expected to score and concede less against this tier. The model’s suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3% with a 5% edge, Under 7.5 at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4% with a 7% edge, Under 6.5 at 96.5% with a 1% edge, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 96.4% with an 11% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.3% with a 1% edge, Away under 1.5 2H goals at 94.3% with a 15% edge, and Away under 3.5 goals at 92.2%. The probabilities for a home win, a draw and an away win are 33%, 26% and 40% respectively.
Results analysis
The match saw the favoured result unfold as predicted: Francs Borains claimed a 0-1 victory over Excelsior Virton, extending their recent win streak. The model’s pick of an Away win, given a 40% probability, proved correct. The final score matched the model’s expectation of an away triumph. Every suggested selection performed as forecasted: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit with 99.1%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.5%, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 96.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.5%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 94.3%, Away under 1.5 2H goals hit at 93.7%, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 92.2%. The model’s predictions were largely accurate, confirming its strong form assessment.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Excelsior Virton win✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied 34.4% · @ 2.66
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.92
Dafabet
2.75
Betano
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
Superbet
2.67
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.25
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.45
Unibet
3.35
10Bet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Betano
3.30
Francs Borains win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied 37.4% · @ 2.45
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.60
Dafabet
2.55
William Hil
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Betano
2.47
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Excelsior Virton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.53
1.06
1.12
1.21
2.00
vs Stronger (26)
1.19
1.58
1.14
1.14
1.25
2.08
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Francs Borains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Francs Borains
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.53
1.00
1.07
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.22
1.78
1.50
0.75
1.00
2.60
vs Similar (21)
1.00
1.43
0.82
1.18
1.20
1.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior Virton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.6%
@ 1.26+8.2%
Under 1.5
18.4%
@ 3.48-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.69
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.3%
@ 1.86+8.1%
Under 2.5
41.7%
@ 1.87-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.90
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.88
Betano
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.9%
@ 3.12+6.2%
Under 3.5
64.1%
@ 1.32-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Pinnacle
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.8%
@ 1.67+6.6%
No
38.2%
@ 2.05-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
No
10Bet
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Betano
2.07
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 5.85+4.8%
1-2
8.8%@ 8.36+3.7%
2-1
7.9%@ 8.88+3.0%
0-1 ✓
6.6%@ 7.94+1.2%
2-2
6.3%@ 11.45+2.5%
0-2
6.2%@ 11.18+2.3%
0-0
6.0%@ 9.52+1.4%
1-0
5.8%@ 8.23+0.6%
Excelsior Virton goals ↓
Francs Borains goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
6.6%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
1
5.8%
12%
8.8%
4.7%
1.9%
2
5.0%
7.9%
6.3%
3.4%
1.3%
3
2.4%
3.8%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Excelsior Virton goals (down), columns = Francs Borains goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beerschot VA
2.00
Dender
1.77
Liège
1.66
Patro Eisden
1.59
AS Eupen
1.47
Lokeren-Temse
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.28
K. Lierse S.K.
1.19
Seraing United
1.13
Francs Borains
1.09
Sporting Hasselt
1.01
RSC Anderlecht II
0.97
KRC Genk II
0.97
Excelsior Virton
0.95
Club Brugge II
0.66
Excelsior Virton is 0.15 points worse than Francs Borains in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dender
1.82
Beerschot VA
1.62
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
RSC Anderlecht II
1.44
Patro Eisden
1.38
Liège
1.38
AS Eupen
1.38
KAA Gent II
1.31
KRC Genk II
1.31
Seraing United
1.19
K. Lierse S.K.
1.09
Sporting Hasselt
1.04
Club Brugge II
1.03
Francs Borains
1.03
Excelsior Virton
0.97
Excelsior Virton is 0.06 goals worse than Francs Borains in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beerschot VA
0.97
Dender
1.09
AS Eupen
1.12
Liège
1.22
Patro Eisden
1.25
K. Lierse S.K.
1.31
Seraing United
1.32
Lokeren-Temse
1.41
Francs Borains
1.47
KAA Gent II
1.59
Club Brugge II
1.72
RSC Anderlecht II
1.72
KRC Genk II
1.84
Sporting Hasselt
1.92
Excelsior Virton
2.05
Excelsior Virton is 0.59 goals worse than Francs Borains in terms of goals conceded per game (2.05 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
KAA Gent II
57%
Club Brugge II
56%
Lokeren-Temse
54%
Beerschot VA
53%
RSC Anderlecht II
52%
KRC Genk II
52%
AS Eupen
51%
K. Lierse S.K.
47%
Francs Borains
45%
Liège
44%
Seraing United
41%
Patro Eisden
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Excelsior Virton
For 4.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 13.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Francs Borains
For 4.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Excelsior Virton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (38)
9.0
-
9.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
13.0
-
13.0
vs Stronger (34)
9.0
-
9.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
13.0
-
13.0
vs Similar (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
100%
This opponent (Francs Borains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Francs Borains
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.4
9.6
4.1
4.2
4.0
26.1
25.8
26.4
vs Stronger (18)
9.5
9.0
10.2
3.4
4.4
2.7
26.0
25.4
26.7
vs Similar (32)
10.3
11.2
9.4
4.5
4.1
4.9
26.2
26.0
26.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
50%
55%
60%
64%
56%
80%
80%
80%
% under line
48%
50%
45%
40%
36%
44%
20%
20%
20%
This opponent (Excelsior Virton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lokeren-Temse
10.9
Liège
10.5
Beerschot VA
10.3
KRC Genk II
10.2
RSC Anderlecht II
9.9
Francs Borains
9.7
Dender
9.7
AS Eupen
9.5
KAA Gent II
9.5
Club Brugge II
9.3
K. Lierse S.K.
9.1
Seraing United
9.1
Excelsior Virton
9.0
Patro Eisden
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lokeren-Temse
5.9
K. Lierse S.K.
5.8
Patro Eisden
5.6
Francs Borains
5.5
Seraing United
5.1
Beerschot VA
4.8
AS Eupen
4.7
RSC Anderlecht II
4.6
Liège
4.6
Club Brugge II
4.4
KAA Gent II
4.0
KRC Genk II
3.7
Dender
3.4
Excelsior Virton
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lokeren-Temse
28.5
Patro Eisden
28.4
K. Lierse S.K.
27.7
RSC Anderlecht II
27.2
Club Brugge II
27.1
Francs Borains
26.7
KAA Gent II
26.3
AS Eupen
25.8
Seraing United
25.7
KRC Genk II
25.4
Liège
24.9
Beerschot VA
24.5
Dender
21.3
Excelsior Virton
13.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.1%
@ 1.90-1.8%
Under 9.5
52.9%
@ 1.82+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.98
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Under
Unibet
1.88
Bet365
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.9%
Under 3.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.1%
Under 21.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Excelsior Virton or Draw✗ Miss
59.5%
Avg Implied 62.4% · @ 1.48
Edge
-2.9%
33%
26%
40%
covers Excelsior Virton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
10Bet
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Excelsior Virton or Francs Borains✓ Hit
73.7%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
+1.6%
33%
26%
40%
covers Excelsior Virton + Francs Borains
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.35
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Francs Borains✓ Hit
66.8%
Avg Implied 65.5% · @ 1.41
Edge
+1.3%
33%
26%
40%
covers Draw + Francs Borains
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.41
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Excelsior Virton over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
76.1%
@ 1.28+4.2%
Under
23.9%
@ 3.29-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.49
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Excelsior Virton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.9%
@ 2.45+3.9%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.50-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.45
Marathonbet
2.43
Under
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Excelsior Virton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.4%
@ 5.58+0.9%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.11-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Excelsior Virton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 13.50-1.3%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.02+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Francs Borains over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.7%
@ 1.25+5.9%
Under
20.3%
@ 3.53-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.76
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Francs Borains over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.4%
@ 2.28+6.7%
Under
52.6%
@ 1.56-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
BetVictor
2.30
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Francs Borains over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.6%
@ 5.17+3.7%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.13-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Francs Borains over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 12.25+0.0%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.03-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Excelsior Virton, so a minus line means Excelsior Virton give that many goals of a start and Francs Borains receive them. At -1, Excelsior Virton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Excelsior Virton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Francs Borains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Francs Borains
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.87
0.33
0.60
0.27
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.78
0.50
0.25
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.29
0.90
0.27
0.73
0.30
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior Virton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.7%
@ 1.36+10.8%
Under 0.5
21.3%
@ 2.89-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.08
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.9%
@ 2.70+5.6%
Under 1.5
60.1%
@ 1.41-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.84
Betano
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.5%
@ 6.65+4.5%
Under 2.5
81.5%
@ 1.07-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.70
William Hil
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Excelsior Virton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
67.2%
@ 2.09+22.9%
Under
32.8%
@ 1.66-22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.65
Excelsior Virton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.2%
@ 6.78+21.6%
Under
64.8%
@ 1.07-21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Excelsior Virton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 18.50+8.9%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.01-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Francs Borains over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
24.1%
@ 2.00-22.1%
Under
75.9%
@ 1.72+22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Unibet
1.70
Francs Borains over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 6.24-11.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.08+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Francs Borains over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 16.88-4.8%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Excelsior Virton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.33
0.67
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (26)
0.54
1.00
0.38
0.62
0.69
1.38
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Francs Borains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Francs Borains
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.67
0.47
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.52
0.55
0.45
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior Virton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
85.8%
@ 1.21+9.8%
Under 0.5
14.2%
@ 3.84-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.78
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
58.1%
@ 2.05+13.0%
Under 1.5
41.9%
@ 1.68-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
William Hil
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.1%
@ 4.32+4.8%
Under 2.5
73.9%
@ 1.17-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
William Hil
4.50
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.35
Superbet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Excelsior Virton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
79.7%
@ 1.76+27.4%
Under
20.3%
@ 1.93-27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.88
Excelsior Virton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.1%
@ 4.78+22.7%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.14-22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Excelsior Virton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.6%
@ 11.12+7.2%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.02-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Francs Borains over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
32.4%
@ 1.71-21.6%
Under
67.6%
@ 2.01+21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Under
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Francs Borains over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 4.41-14.6%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.17+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Francs Borains over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 10.50-7.4%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.02+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.7%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+14.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.3%
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
-8.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
84.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
-7.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.2%
1.12
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.11
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.6%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
+8.2%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
-4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.7%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
79.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.7%
1.36
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
+10.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
78.4%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.1%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.8%
1.31
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.25
-
-
+5.6%
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.9%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
-4.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.7%
1.28
William Hil
1.35
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Francs Borains · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lucas Lima26%
Arsène Wukanya25%
Yanis Hadjem18%
Mondy Prunier17%
Massimo Bruno13%
Philipp Wydra10%
Levi Malungu10%
Aboubacar Ali Abdallah10%
Jordy Soladio8%
Corenthyn Lavie8%
Mathias Francotte8%
Maxime Bastian8%
Dorian Dessoleil4%
Hossni Soye Ndime0%
Sébastien Dewaest0%
Mathias Fixelles0%
Jasper Van Oudenhove0%
Kays Ruiz-Atil0%
Yannick Pandor0%
Noah Diliberto0%
Yannis Kari0%
Lukas Mondele0%
Théo Gécé0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Jovan Mituljikić0%
Jason Dalle Molle0%
Victor Swinnen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Fixelles44%
Jason Dalle Molle32%
Levi Malungu30%
Massimo Bruno26%
Sébastien Dewaest25%
Mathias Francotte20%
Philipp Wydra20%
Victor Swinnen20%
Yanis Hadjem18%
Jordy Soladio17%
Théo Gécé17%
Corenthyn Lavie16%
Maxime Bastian16%
Lukas Mondele16%
Yannis Kari14%
Yannick Pandor10%
Noah Diliberto10%
Aboubacar Ali Abdallah10%
Jovan Mituljikić9%
Dorian Dessoleil8%
Jasper Van Oudenhove6%
Hossni Soye Ndime0%
Kays Ruiz-Atil0%
Lucas Lima0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Mondy Prunier0%
Arsène Wukanya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sébastien Dewaest12%
Dorian Dessoleil12%
Philipp Wydra10%
Aboubacar Ali Abdallah10%
Massimo Bruno9%
Jordy Soladio8%
Corenthyn Lavie8%
Mathias Francotte8%
Jasper Van Oudenhove6%
Lucas Lima5%
Noah Diliberto5%
Jason Dalle Molle5%
Maxime Bastian4%
Hossni Soye Ndime0%
Mathias Fixelles0%
Kays Ruiz-Atil0%
Yannick Pandor0%
Yanis Hadjem0%
Yannis Kari0%
Levi Malungu0%
Lukas Mondele0%
Théo Gécé0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Jovan Mituljikić0%
Mondy Prunier0%
Victor Swinnen0%
Arsène Wukanya0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Corenthyn Lavie20%
Massimo Bruno17%
Aboubacar Ali Abdallah10%
Jasper Van Oudenhove6%
Lucas Lima5%
Mathias Francotte4%
Maxime Bastian4%
Dorian Dessoleil4%
Hossni Soye Ndime0%
Sébastien Dewaest0%
Mathias Fixelles0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Kays Ruiz-Atil0%
Yannick Pandor0%
Yanis Hadjem0%
Noah Diliberto0%
Philipp Wydra0%
Yannis Kari0%
Levi Malungu0%
Lukas Mondele0%
Théo Gécé0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Jovan Mituljikić0%
Mondy Prunier0%
Jason Dalle Molle0%
Victor Swinnen0%
Arsène Wukanya0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (26)
€12m
BV (26)
€9m
DEN (19)
€8m
RAI (19)
€8m
KGI (18)
€7m
PE (25)
€7m
KGI (19)
€6m
KLS (21)
€5m
LOK (16)
€5m
FB (22)
€4m
SU (15)
€3m
SH (8)
€2m
EV (11)
€2m
Excelsior Virton's squad is €2m less valuable than Francs Borains's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (9)
€7m
BV (13)
€4m
RAI (8)
€3m
KGI (9)
€2m
KGI (7)
€2m
LOK (5)
€2m
KLS (7)
€2m
FB (8)
€2m
DEN (4)
€1m
PE (7)
€1m
SU (4)
€1m
EV (4)
€1m
SH (4)
€1m
Excelsior Virton and Francs Borains have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DEN (6)
€3m
PE (7)
€2m
AE (9)
€2m
KGI (1)
€2m
RAI (3)
€2m
KGI (4)
€1m
FB (5)
€1m
LOK (3)
€1m
SU (3)
€1m
KLS (3)
€1m
BV (2)
€0m
SH (1)
€0m
EV (1)
€0m
Excelsior Virton and Francs Borains have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BV (11)
€5m
DEN (9)
€4m
PE (11)
€3m
RAI (8)
€3m
AE (8)
€3m
KLS (11)
€3m
KGI (8)
€3m
KGI (8)
€2m
LOK (8)
€2m
FB (9)
€2m
SU (8)
€2m
SH (3)
€1m
EV (6)
€1m
Excelsior Virton's defence is €1m less valuable than Francs Borains's (€1m vs €2m).
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Beerschot VA
Club Brugge II
Dender
Lokeren-Temse
Sporting Hasselt
K. Lierse S.K.
AS Eupen
Liège
Patro Eisden
KRC Genk II
KAA Gent II
Seraing United
RSC Anderlecht II