The match is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds are close: 37% for Exeter, 29% for a draw, and 34% for Barnet. The expected total is 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal game, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 with a 13.9% chance. Exeter, playing at home against a similar-strength side, averages 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded, while Barnet on the road averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (98.3% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% with a 7% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0% with a 7% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (95.5% with a 2% edge), Under 5.5 (95.2% with a 5% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.6% with a 1% edge). The game remains finely balanced, with Exeter’s recent loss and Barnet’s draw keeping both sides on even footing.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Exeter, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. Exeter entered the game on a run of draws and losses, while Barnet had a mixed five-match stretch ending in a draw as well. The model had given Exeter a 36% chance of victory, yet the outcome was a stalemate. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Under 6.5 at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.6%, and Under 5.5 at 95.2%. The game confirmed the model’s predictions on total goals, but not on the winner.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Exeter win✗ Miss
36.4%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.59
Edge
+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.90
BetVictor
3.75
Dafabet
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.68
Draw✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.68
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.98
Marathonbet
3.78
Dafabet
3.75
1xBet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Barnet win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied 48.8% · @ 1.91
Edge
-14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Dafabet
1.93
SBO
1.93
Superbet
1.92
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Exeter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.83
1.14
1.50
1.19
2.12
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
3.62
1.25
3.00
1.25
4.25
vs Similar (21)
1.14
1.14
1.10
0.90
1.18
1.36
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.23
1.87
1.33
1.60
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.73
1.23
1.87
1.33
1.60
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
@ 1.20-3.7%
Under 1.5
25.8%
@ 4.21+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.37
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.7%
@ 1.67-8.4%
Under 2.5
52.3%
@ 2.13+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Bet365
2.15
Betfair
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
@ 2.65-9.1%
Under 3.5
74.0%
@ 1.43+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.77
Betfair
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Betano
2.65
Under
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.8%
@ 1.59-4.5%
No
46.2%
@ 2.22+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Unibet
1.58
No
Betfair
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.9%@ 6.71+7.2%
0-0
8.8%@ 12.10+5.1%
1-0
8.7%@ 11.68+4.8%
0-1
8.4%@ 8.25+2.9%
2-1
8.3%@ 10.98+4.2%
1-2
8.0%@ 7.76+2.2%
2-0
6.5%@ 18.27+4.0%
0-2
6.1%@ 9.73+1.5%
Exeter goals ↓
Barnet goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
8.4%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
1
8.7%
14%
8.0%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.5%
8.3%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.8%
3.6%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Exeter goals (down), columns = Barnet goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Exeter is 0.07 points worse than Barnet in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Exeter is 0.05 goals worse than Barnet in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Exeter is 0.03 goals better than Barnet in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Exeter
For 5.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barnet
For 7.2 · Against 4.1 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 13.5 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Exeter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.3
10.3
3.3
3.0
3.6
22.0
22.3
21.7
vs Stronger (12)
9.2
8.4
9.9
3.2
2.6
3.6
21.5
21.4
21.6
vs Similar (36)
10.6
10.8
10.3
3.4
3.1
3.7
22.2
22.6
21.8
vs Weaker (2)
12.0
-
12.0
2.5
-
2.5
22.0
-
22.0
% over line
58%
68%
50%
52%
43%
59%
60%
55%
65%
% under line
42%
32%
50%
48%
57%
41%
40%
45%
35%
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.5
3.6
3.4
3.7
24.0
23.9
24.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
10.4
10.2
10.5
3.6
3.4
3.7
24.0
23.9
24.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
54%
60%
52%
46%
58%
67%
58%
76%
% under line
43%
46%
40%
48%
54%
42%
33%
42%
24%
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
York
12.0
Crawley Town
11.9
Swindon
11.4
Walsall
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Exeter
10.3
Northampton
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Crewe
9.5
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Rotherham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
York
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.2
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Salford
24.7
Rochdale
24.2
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Grimsby
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.9
Walsall
22.9
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Northampton
22.1
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Swindon
20.4
York
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.3%
@ 1.51-2.5%
Under 9.5
41.7%
@ 2.35+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.56
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.41
Marathonbet
2.36
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.31
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.8%
Under 3.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.3%
Under 21.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Exeter or Draw✓ Hit
65.4%
Avg Implied 50.7% · @ 1.84
Edge
+14.7%
36%
29%
35%
covers Exeter + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Exeter or Barnet✗ Miss
71.0%
Avg Implied 75.1% · @ 1.24
Edge
-4.1%
36%
29%
35%
covers Exeter + Barnet
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.24
Draw or Barnet✓ Hit
63.6%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.26
Edge
-10.6%
36%
29%
35%
covers Draw + Barnet
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Exeter over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.0%
@ 1.34+3.7%
Under
27.0%
@ 3.03-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.07
Unibet
3.00
Exeter over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.7%
@ 2.67+2.9%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.43-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.86
BetVictor
2.75
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.69
Betano
2.67
Under
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Exeter over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 6.57+0.4%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.08-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
BetVictor
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Exeter over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 15.67-1.7%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.02+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Barnet over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.0%
@ 1.15-8.8%
Under
28.0%
@ 4.83+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.20
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Barnet over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.3%
@ 1.80-15.4%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.93+15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Unibet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Barnet over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 3.49-13.0%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.26+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Barnet over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 7.48-8.5%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.07+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.20
1xBet
6.60
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Exeter, so a minus line means Exeter give that many goals of a start and Barnet receive them. At -1, Exeter must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Exeter win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Exeter)Actual: Barnet
Exeter -2
5.9%
@ 17.67+0.7%
Draw -2
10.9%
@ 9.77+1.5%
Barnet +2
83.1%
@ 1.08-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
18.00
Superbet
16.00
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
9.30
Away
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Exeter)Actual: Barnet
Exeter -1
16.9%
@ 7.23+4.5%
Draw -1
19.5%
@ 5.22+2.4%
Barnet +1
63.6%
@ 1.27-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.90
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Handicap +1 (Exeter)Actual: Exeter
Exeter +1
65.4%
@ 1.82+16.2%
Draw +1
18.9%
@ 3.74-5.0%
Barnet -1
15.7%
@ 3.34-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.60
Away
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.35
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Handicap +2 (Exeter)Actual: Exeter
Exeter +2
84.3%
@ 1.26+13.5%
Draw +2
10.3%
@ 5.50-6.0%
Barnet -2
5.4%
@ 6.97-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
6.90
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Exeter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.29
0.64
0.38
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.50
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.62
0.30
0.40
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
1.07
0.53
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.80
0.50
1.07
0.53
0.53
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
70.7%
@ 1.29-1.2%
Under 0.5
29.3%
@ 3.31+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.9%
@ 2.41-3.6%
Under 1.5
65.1%
@ 1.51+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.44
Unibet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.41
Under
William Hil
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Betano
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 5.70-3.4%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.11+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.70
Under
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Exeter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.7%
@ 2.20+5.6%
Under
52.3%
@ 1.60-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.26
Superbet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
1xBet
1.61
Unibet
1.61
Superbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Exeter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.2%
@ 7.34+1.6%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.06-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
Superbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Betano
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Exeter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 22.50-0.4%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.01+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
29.00
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Barnet over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.1%
@ 1.73-11.7%
Under
57.9%
@ 2.01+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Barnet over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 4.56-12.7%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.16+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
Betano
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
1xBet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Barnet over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 11.67-6.8%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.02+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Exeter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.86
0.86
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
2.12
1.00
1.75
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.52
0.80
0.50
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.80
0.80
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.93
0.73
0.80
0.80
1.07
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.7%
@ 1.18-3.2%
Under 0.5
24.3%
@ 4.42+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Under
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Betano
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.3%
@ 1.89-8.0%
Under 1.5
58.7%
@ 1.83+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.88
Under
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.85
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.2%
@ 3.79-8.4%
Under 2.5
83.8%
@ 1.23+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
1xBet
3.88
Marathonbet
3.88
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Exeter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.3%
@ 1.86+5.6%
Under
44.7%
@ 1.84-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.80
Exeter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.5%
@ 5.34+2.1%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.12-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.95
1xBet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.20
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
Exeter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 15.00-0.8%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.01+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Barnet over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.2%
@ 1.50-14.7%
Under
52.8%
@ 2.43+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.43
Superbet
2.40
Barnet over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 3.37-15.6%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.28+15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.55
Superbet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Barnet over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 8.43-8.4%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.04+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Superbet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.3%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.1%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
+15.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.0%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.11
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.4%
1.26
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
+13.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.3%
1.26
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
+13.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.18
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.15
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.0%
1.43
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.0%
1.34
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.0%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
-8.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.0%
1.24
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.24
-4.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.29
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.3%
1.30
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
-0.0%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Exeter
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Fitzwater50%
Reece Cole25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Josh Gordon0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charlie Cummins50%
Vincent Harper33%
Reece Cole25%
Gwion Edwards25%
J. Fitzwater25%
Josh Gordon25%
Ethan Sutherland25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
E. James0%
George Birch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrew Oluwabori33%
Gwion Edwards25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Reece Cole0%
J. Fitzwater0%
Josh Gordon0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reece Cole25%
Josh Gordon25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Gwion Edwards0%
J. Fitzwater0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Barnet
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Lakin50%
K. Tshimanga50%
J. Reeves33%
Tom Knowles25%
I. Kanu25%
Brandon Comley0%
W. Wright0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brandon Comley33%
Tom Knowles25%
I. Kanu25%
C. Lakin25%
M. Cox25%
Z. Williams25%
W. Wright0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
K. Tshimanga0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Tshimanga50%
C. Lakin25%
Brandon Comley0%
Tom Knowles0%
W. Wright0%
I. Kanu0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Lakin25%
Brandon Comley0%
Tom Knowles0%
W. Wright0%
I. Kanu0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
K. Tshimanga0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Exeter and Barnet have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Exeter and Barnet have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Exeter and Barnet have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Exeter's defence is €2m less valuable than Barnet's (€1m vs €3m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale