This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.93
1.44
1.00
1.14
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.23
1.09
1.42
1.25
1.00
0.90
vs Weaker (8)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.25
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.0%
@ 2.27-0.5%
Under 2.5
59.0%
@ 1.61+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.1%
No
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
12.1%
0-0
11.1%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.5%
Exeter goals ↓
Port Vale goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.1%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.1%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.2%
8.7%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.2%
4.0%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Exeter goals (down), columns = Port Vale goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Plymouth
2.20
Ipswich
2.13
Sheffield Weds
2.09
Barnsley
1.87
Bolton
1.76
Peterboro
1.67
Derby
1.65
Portsmouth
1.52
Wycombe
1.50
Lincoln
1.35
Charlton
1.35
Shrewsbury
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Exeter
1.22
Burton
1.22
Cheltenham
1.17
Bristol Rvs
1.15
Port Vale
1.07
Oxford
1.02
Cambridge
1.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Accrington
0.96
Morecambe
0.96
Forest Green
0.59
Exeter is 0.15 points better than Port Vale in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ipswich
2.20
Plymouth
1.78
Sheffield Weds
1.76
Barnsley
1.74
Peterboro
1.63
Charlton
1.52
Derby
1.46
Exeter
1.39
Bolton
1.35
Portsmouth
1.33
Wycombe
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.26
Burton
1.24
Fleetwood Town
1.15
Shrewsbury
1.13
Oxford
1.07
Port Vale
1.04
Lincoln
1.02
Morecambe
1.02
Cheltenham
0.98
Milton Keynes Dons
0.96
Cambridge
0.89
Accrington
0.87
Forest Green
0.67
Exeter is 0.35 goals better than Port Vale in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ipswich
0.76
Bolton
0.78
Sheffield Weds
0.80
Derby
1.00
Lincoln
1.02
Barnsley
1.02
Plymouth
1.02
Portsmouth
1.09
Fleetwood Town
1.11
Wycombe
1.11
Peterboro
1.17
Oxford
1.22
Shrewsbury
1.33
Cheltenham
1.33
Charlton
1.43
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Cambridge
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Port Vale
1.54
Bristol Rvs
1.59
Accrington
1.67
Morecambe
1.70
Burton
1.72
Forest Green
1.93
Exeter is 0.07 goals better than Port Vale in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ipswich
59%
Bolton
57%
Portsmouth
55%
Derby
55%
Plymouth
54%
Peterboro
54%
Charlton
54%
Oxford
53%
Sheffield Weds
53%
Milton Keynes Dons
53%
Port Vale
52%
Exeter
52%
Barnsley
49%
Fleetwood Town
49%
Accrington
47%
Forest Green
47%
Wycombe
46%
Cambridge
46%
Burton
45%
Cheltenham
43%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
42%
Morecambe
42%
Exeter is 0.4 percentage points worse than Port Vale in terms of average possession (52% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Exeter
For 6.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 9.4 · Total 19.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Port Vale
For 5.9 · Against 6.2 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Exeter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.7
11.3
2.8
2.7
3.0
19.7
20.2
19.2
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
-
10.0
7.0
-
7.0
25.0
-
25.0
vs Similar (35)
10.7
10.4
11.1
2.9
2.8
3.0
20.3
20.8
19.6
vs Weaker (14)
11.8
11.6
12.0
2.3
2.3
2.3
17.9
18.6
17.3
% over line
66%
56%
76%
34%
28%
40%
30%
32%
28%
% under line
34%
44%
24%
66%
72%
60%
70%
68%
72%
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.9
9.5
3.4
3.0
3.9
22.8
23.0
22.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
8.9
8.5
9.4
3.8
3.2
4.4
23.5
23.3
23.8
vs Weaker (14)
10.0
10.0
10.0
2.6
2.6
2.7
21.1
22.4
19.7
% over line
48%
46%
50%
42%
35%
50%
58%
58%
58%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
58%
65%
50%
42%
42%
42%
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Burton
12.0
Sheffield Weds
11.0
Exeter
11.0
Forest Green
10.7
Lincoln
10.7
Morecambe
10.5
Accrington
10.4
Portsmouth
10.4
Oxford
10.3
Plymouth
10.3
Bristol Rvs
10.3
Ipswich
10.2
Charlton
10.1
Cambridge
10.0
Bolton
10.0
Cheltenham
10.0
Shrewsbury
9.9
Wycombe
9.7
Fleetwood Town
9.7
Peterboro
9.7
Barnsley
9.7
Milton Keynes Dons
9.5
Derby
9.3
Port Vale
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.7
Charlton
4.1
Derby
4.1
Accrington
4.0
Lincoln
3.7
Oxford
3.7
Ipswich
3.7
Forest Green
3.6
Portsmouth
3.6
Fleetwood Town
3.6
Bolton
3.5
Peterboro
3.5
Sheffield Weds
3.5
Milton Keynes Dons
3.5
Wycombe
3.4
Port Vale
3.4
Cambridge
3.4
Plymouth
3.3
Shrewsbury
3.3
Burton
3.3
Cheltenham
3.2
Barnsley
3.2
Exeter
2.8
Morecambe
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bristol Rvs
25.1
Accrington
25.0
Charlton
24.3
Portsmouth
24.2
Forest Green
23.2
Wycombe
23.1
Port Vale
22.8
Lincoln
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.7
Peterboro
22.5
Bolton
22.2
Milton Keynes Dons
22.2
Sheffield Weds
21.8
Derby
21.6
Oxford
21.5
Barnsley
21.4
Shrewsbury
21.4
Ipswich
21.3
Burton
21.1
Cambridge
21.0
Cheltenham
20.7
Plymouth
20.6
Morecambe
19.9
Exeter
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.2%
Under 9.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
65.5%
Under 3.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
67.8%
Under 21.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Exeter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.71
0.57
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.55
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.94
0.69
0.50
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.55
0.92
0.92
0.40
0.10
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Exeter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Exeter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.79
0.21
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.32
0.50
0.20
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.38
1.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.50
0.31
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.33
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Exeter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Exeter · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Fitzwater50%
Reece Cole25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Josh Gordon0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charlie Cummins50%
Vincent Harper33%
Reece Cole25%
Gwion Edwards25%
J. Fitzwater25%
Josh Gordon25%
Ethan Sutherland25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
E. James0%
George Birch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrew Oluwabori33%
Gwion Edwards25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Reece Cole0%
J. Fitzwater0%
Josh Gordon0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reece Cole25%
Josh Gordon25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Gwion Edwards0%
J. Fitzwater0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Port Vale · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Garrity33%
C. Humphreys25%
Kyle Dempsey25%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (31)
€280m
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
WYC (24)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
PET (23)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
Exeter's squad is €4m less valuable than Port Vale's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (11)
€130m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Exeter and Port Vale have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (7)
€66m
DER (6)
€14m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Exeter's midfield is €1m less valuable than Port Vale's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (13)
€85m
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
FG (2)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Exeter's defence is €2m less valuable than Port Vale's (€1m vs €3m).
England: League One 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Plymouth
Ipswich
Sheffield Weds
Barnsley
Bolton
Peterboro
Derby
Portsmouth
Wycombe
Charlton
Lincoln
Shrewsbury
Fleetwood Town
Burton
Cheltenham
Bristol Rvs
Oxford
Cambridge
Milton Keynes Dons
Morecambe
Accrington
Forest Green