The contest between FA Šiauliai II and Be1 NFA is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home odds sit at 34%, a draw at 26% and the visitors at 40%. The expected total is 3.1 goals, but the most likely aggregate is 2, a 22% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11.7% probability. FA Šiauliai II, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. Be1 NFA, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.1% chance. Recent form shows FA Šiauliai II coming off a defeat, while Be1 NFA is on a three-game winning streak. The match remains finely balanced, but the data tilt the scales toward the visitors.
Results analysis
The win extends Be1 NFA’s three-game winning run, while FA Šiauliai II come off a defeat. The model’s pre-match favourite was an Away win at 40%, and it proved correct as the final score read 0-2, an away victory. The model also selected Over 1.5 goals, a pick that hit, with an 83.1% probability. No other selections were listed. The match finished with the favoured result and the model’s chosen outcome, confirming the prediction’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FA Šiauliai II win✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA win✓ Hit
39.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FA Šiauliai II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
2.33
1.21
1.93
2.19
2.69
vs Stronger (12)
1.75
1.92
1.25
1.88
2.75
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
2.80
1.50
2.00
0.83
3.33
vs Weaker (8)
2.50
2.38
0.50
2.00
3.17
2.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.27
1.69
0.85
1.00
1.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.56
1.25
1.50
0.40
1.60
vs Weaker (21)
1.52
1.14
1.89
0.56
1.25
1.58
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.7%
Under 2.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.7%
No
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
6.0%
0-2 ✓
5.8%
1-0
5.5%
0-0
5.4%
FA Šiauliai II goals ↓
Be1 NFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
6.0%
5.8%
3.1%
1.3%
1
5.5%
12%
8.7%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.9%
8.0%
6.6%
3.6%
1.5%
3
2.5%
4.0%
3.3%
1.8%
0.7%
4
0.9%
1.5%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FA Šiauliai II goals (down), columns = Be1 NFA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
FA Šiauliai II is 0.06 points worse than Be1 NFA in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
FA Šiauliai II is 0.33 goals better than Be1 NFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
FA Šiauliai II is 0.58 goals worse than Be1 NFA in terms of goals conceded per game (2.28 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FA Šiauliai II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.14
0.81
1.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
0.38
0.88
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.33
1.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.62
0.00
1.50
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.50
0.43
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.78
0.25
1.00
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
0.62
0.52
0.60
0.20
0.64
0.82
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FA Šiauliai II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.00
0.71
0.79
1.38
1.19
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
0.92
0.88
1.00
1.50
0.75
vs Similar (10)
0.50
1.30
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.83
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
2.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
1.21
0.36
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.78
1.00
0.50
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.62
1.30
0.30
0.45
0.91
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
TransINVEST Vilnius
Neptūną Klaipėda
Tauras
Babrungas
BFA
Atmosfera
Žalgiris II
Jonava
Minija
Hegelmann II
Ekranas
Kauno Žalgiris II
Nevėžis
Panevėžys II
Sveikata