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FA Šiauliai II vs Garliava Result & Analysis

Date: 07/10/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 3-3
FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
Vs
31%
25%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Garliava
Garliava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FA Šiauliai II will host Garliava in a match that the model projects as an away win, with a 45% chance for Garliava, a 31% chance for FA Šiauliai II, and a 25% chance of a draw. The expected total of goals is 3.3, pointing to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 10.8% probability. FA Šiauliai II, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 2.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded, while Garliava, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries an 85.4% probability. The match is expected to see 3 goals in total, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. The suggested pick list contains only the Over 1.5 selection, and no other outcomes are presented.

Results analysis

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win with a 45% probability, failed to materialise. Instead the match finished 3-3, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The game was a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total of three goals hit the 22% probability mark. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5, proved correct, reaching 85.4% confidence and indeed being hit. FA Šiauliai II, fresh from a defeat, could not keep up with Garliava, who were coming off five straight losses, and both sides managed three goals each. The result underscores the unpredictability of this Lithuanian fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FA Šiauliai II win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Garliava win✗ Miss
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Last 10 – goals for & against
100-1001L50W12L32W03L32W010L22D12L22DH·BAB30/06A·ŠIL29/07A·BE105/08H·NEV12/08A·NEP20/08H·JON26/08A·TRA30/08H·TRA16/09A·MIN23/09H·KAU02/10
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.232.001.351.761.082.31
vs Stronger (18)1.441.941.421.751.502.33
vs Similar (8)0.501.880.330.670.602.60
vs Weaker (4)1.752.502.503.501.001.50
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D34L31W03L11D01L12L11D11D20WH·BFA01/07H·BAB29/07A·ŠIL05/08H·BE112/08A·NEV18/08H·NEP25/08A·JON01/09H·TRA16/09A·TRA23/09H·MIN30/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.231.071.131.601.33
vs Stronger (27)1.301.191.071.131.581.25
vs Similar (3)1.671.67--1.671.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.6%
Under 2.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.5%
Under 3.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.1%
No
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.4%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.0%
0-1
5.6%
1-3
5.5%
0-0
4.6%
FA Šiauliai II goals ↓
Garliava goals →
01234
04.6%5.6%6.0%3.7%1.7%
14.4%11%9.0%5.5%2.5%
24.0%7.4%6.7%4.1%1.9%
32.0%3.7%3.4%2.0%0.9%
40.7%1.4%1.3%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FA Šiauliai II goals (down), columns = Garliava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
FA Šiauliai II is 0.23 points worse than Garliava in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
FA Šiauliai II is 0.13 goals better than Garliava in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.43).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
FA Šiauliai II is 0.97 goals worse than Garliava in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 1.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D20W10W11D00D11D05L11D02L10WH·BAB30/06A·ŠIL29/07A·BE105/08H·NEV12/08A·NEP20/08H·JON26/08A·TRA30/08H·TRA16/09A·MIN23/09H·KAU02/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.900.710.820.381.00
vs Stronger (18)0.670.890.670.830.671.00
vs Similar (8)0.120.880.000.330.201.20
vs Weaker (4)1.001.002.001.500.000.50
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W20W01L11D01L11D01L10W00DH·BFA01/07H·BAB29/07A·ŠIL05/08H·BE112/08A·NEV18/08H·NEP25/08A·JON01/09H·TRA16/09A·TRA23/09H·MIN30/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.430.530.330.730.53
vs Stronger (27)0.630.410.530.330.750.50
vs Similar (3)0.670.67--0.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L30W02L21W03L21W05L11D10W12LH·BAB30/06A·ŠIL29/07A·BE105/08H·NEV12/08A·NEP20/08H·JON26/08A·TRA30/08H·TRA16/09A·MIN23/09H·KAU02/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.100.650.940.691.31
vs Stronger (18)0.781.060.750.920.831.33
vs Similar (8)0.381.000.330.330.401.40
vs Weaker (4)0.751.500.502.001.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W24L11D02L00D00D01L10W01L20WH·BFA01/07H·BAB29/07A·ŠIL05/08H·BE112/08A·NEV18/08H·NEP25/08A·JON01/09H·TRA16/09A·TRA23/09H·MIN30/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.530.800.870.80
vs Stronger (27)0.670.780.530.800.830.75
vs Similar (3)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Garliava have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Garliava have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Garliava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Garliava have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
FŠI wins
0
Draws
2
GAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FA Šiauliai II vs Garliava · H/A from FŠI
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/23AGarliava Vs FŠI3-0
09/07/22HFŠI Vs Garliava0-3

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/10/23HFŠI Vs Kauno Žalgiris II2-2
23/09/23AMinija Vs FŠI2-1
16/09/23HFŠI Vs Trakai II2-2
30/08/23ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs FŠI10-0
26/08/23HFŠI Vs Jonava3-2
20/08/23ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs FŠI3-0
12/08/23HFŠI Vs Nevėžis3-2
05/08/23ABe1 NFA Vs FŠI2-1
29/07/23AŠilas Vs FŠI0-5
30/06/23HFŠI Vs Babrungas0-1

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23HGAR Vs Minija2-0
23/09/23ATrakai II Vs GAR1-1
16/09/23HGAR Vs TransINVEST Vilnius1-1
01/09/23AJonava Vs GAR2-1
25/08/23HGAR Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-1
18/08/23ANevėžis Vs GAR1-1
12/08/23HGAR Vs Be1 NFA0-3
05/08/23AŠilas Vs GAR1-3
29/07/23HGAR Vs Babrungas3-4
01/07/23HGAR Vs BFA1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLD0.92
HomeLWWDD0.92
AwayWLLLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%24%28%
AVG goals3.243.123.36
Over 1.5 %84%76%92%
Over 2.5 %64%64%64%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.181.241.12
Conceded2.061.882.24
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet10%4%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Garliava
Garliava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDW1.22
HomeLLLDW1.29
AwayLWDLD1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals2.782.463.08
Over 1.5 %80%79%81%
Over 2.5 %46%38%54%
Over 3.5 %28%17%38%
Scored1.261.171.35
Conceded1.521.291.73
BTTS52%46%58%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius2967
72%
2.3
8029+51
3.8
90%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.0
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA2953
55%
1.8
4830+18
2.7
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3051
50%
1.7
6049+11
3.6
93%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda2948
45%
1.7
5433+21
3.0
76%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5NevėžisNevėžis2948
45%
1.7
4432+12
2.6
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6MinijaMinija2948
48%
1.7
4237+5
2.7
83%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Trakai IITrakai II2943
41%
1.5
4633+13
2.7
83%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
8GarliavaGarliava3040
30%
1.3
4337+6
2.7
80%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9EkranasEkranas3039
37%
1.3
4249-7
3.0
77%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10BFABFA3038
33%
1.3
4041-1
2.7
80%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11ŠilasŠilas2335
48%
1.5
2743-16
3.0
78%
57%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3033
30%
1.1
4766-19
3.8
90%
77%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
13Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3032
27%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
14Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3031
27%
1.0
4559-14
3.5
83%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
15Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3028
23%
0.9
4666-20
3.7
90%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.2
-
16JonavaJonava2912
10%
0.4
2576-51
3.5
93%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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