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Fafe vs Arouca Result & Analysis

Date: 23/11/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Fafe
Fafe
Vs
29%
26%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arouca
Arouca
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fafe win✓ Hit
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arouca win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FafeFafe

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L10W10WH·AMA08/09A·ORI21/09H·MOR19/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.331.002.001.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (2)1.002.001.004.001.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AroucaArouca

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-533D11D02L21W04L11D21W05L02L34LH·RIO23/08A·GUI30/08H·CAS14/09A·NAC20/09H·FC 29/09H·FAM05/10A·POR18/10A·BEN25/10H·MOR02/11A·EST07/11← Primeira LigaTaça de Portugal →
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.771.201.471.472.07
vs Stronger (9)0.892.890.003.001.142.86
vs Similar (19)1.321.321.171.251.571.43
vs Weaker (2)3.501.004.001.003.001.00
Clean sheet %13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Fafe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
7.7%
0-2
7.3%
2-1 ✓
7.2%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
1-0
5.7%
Fafe goals ↓
Arouca goals →
01234
06.5%7.7%7.3%4.0%1.7%
15.7%12%9.3%5.1%2.1%
24.4%7.2%6.0%3.3%1.4%
31.9%3.1%2.5%1.4%0.6%
40.6%1.0%0.8%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fafe goals (down), columns = Arouca goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Benfica
2.71
Sporting CP
2.43
Rebordosa
2.40
Anadia
2.33
Santa Clara
2.33
Alverca
2.33
Amarante
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
SC Braga
2.25
GIL Vicente
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Leixoes
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Torreense
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Varzim
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Operário
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
Moreirense
2.00
Chaves
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
Farense
2.00
Cinfães
1.75
Brito
1.75
Lusitânia
1.75
Vila Real
1.75
O Elvas
1.60
FC Porto
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Amora
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
Arouca
1.50
Academica
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Sanjoanense
1.33
Caldas
1.33
Rio Ave
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Atlético Malveira
1.02
Vila Meã
1.02
Portalegrense
1.02
Florgrade
1.02
Correlhã
1.02
Vitória de Sernache
1.02
Nazarenos
1.02
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.02
Valenciano
1.02
Castro Daire
1.02
Rebordelo
1.02
Espinho
1.02
Uniao Nogueirense
1.02
Naval 1893
1.02
Portimonense B
1.02
AD Fornos Algodres
1.02
Resende
1.02
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.02
Silves
1.02
Vidago
1.02
Vila Caíz
1.02
Charneca Caparica
1.02
Oriental Lisboa
1.02
Angrense
1.02
Ançã
1.02
Sourense
1.02
Celoricense
1.02
AD Portomosense
1.02
Alcochetense
1.02
Fayal
1.02
Gouveia
1.02
Samora Correir
1.02
Estrela Calheta
1.02
Ribeira Brava
1.02
Aparecida GO
1.02
Mirandela
1.02
SC Celoricense
1.02
Almodôvar
1.02
Mosteirense
1.02
Águias do Moradal
1.02
Urzelinense
1.02
Celeirós
1.02
Quarteirense
1.02
AR São Martinho
1.02
Carregal
1.02
Juventude Évora
1.02
Pontassolense
1.02
Fazendense
1.02
AD Marco 09
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Leça
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Estoril
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Estrela
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Vizela
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Monção
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Portel
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Nacional
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Tondela
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Fafe is 1.50 points worse than Arouca in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.29
Amarante
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Comércio Indústria
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Arouca
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
Anadia
2.67
Alverca
2.67
Vilaverdense
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Sanjoanense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
Farense
2.33
Cinfães
2.25
Sporting CP
2.14
FC Porto
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Leça
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
AVS
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
Varzim
1.67
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
SC Braga
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Rio Ave
1.50
Moreirense
1.33
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
Atlético Malveira
1.27
Vila Meã
1.27
Portalegrense
1.27
Florgrade
1.27
Correlhã
1.27
Vitória de Sernache
1.27
Nazarenos
1.27
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.27
Valenciano
1.27
Castro Daire
1.27
Rebordelo
1.27
Espinho
1.27
Uniao Nogueirense
1.27
Naval 1893
1.27
Portimonense B
1.27
AD Fornos Algodres
1.27
Resende
1.27
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.27
Silves
1.27
Vidago
1.27
Vila Caíz
1.27
Charneca Caparica
1.27
Oriental Lisboa
1.27
Angrense
1.27
Ançã
1.27
Sourense
1.27
Celoricense
1.27
AD Portomosense
1.27
Alcochetense
1.27
Fayal
1.27
Gouveia
1.27
Samora Correir
1.27
Estrela Calheta
1.27
Ribeira Brava
1.27
Aparecida GO
1.27
Mirandela
1.27
SC Celoricense
1.27
Almodôvar
1.27
Mosteirense
1.27
Águias do Moradal
1.27
Urzelinense
1.27
Celeirós
1.27
Quarteirense
1.27
AR São Martinho
1.27
Carregal
1.27
Juventude Évora
1.27
Pontassolense
1.27
Fazendense
1.27
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
GIL Vicente
1.25
O Elvas
1.20
Tirsense
1.14
Leixoes
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Monção
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Operário
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Tondela
1.00
Academica
1.00
Brito
0.75
Vila Real
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Amora
0.50
Estrela
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Portel
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Estoril
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Fafe is 2.00 goals worse than Arouca in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 3.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Operário
0.00
Estoril
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Benfica
0.29
Santa Clara
0.33
FC Serpa
0.50
Atlético CP
0.50
Brito
0.50
Alpendorada
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Academica
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
FC Porto
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Torreense
1.00
Machico
1.00
Anadia
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
Louletano
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Portel
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Arouca
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
Chaves
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Sanjoanense
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Alverca
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Rio Ave
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Atlético Malveira
1.79
Vila Meã
1.79
Portalegrense
1.79
Florgrade
1.79
Correlhã
1.79
Vitória de Sernache
1.79
Nazarenos
1.79
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.79
Valenciano
1.79
Castro Daire
1.79
Rebordelo
1.79
Espinho
1.79
Uniao Nogueirense
1.79
Naval 1893
1.79
Portimonense B
1.79
AD Fornos Algodres
1.79
Resende
1.79
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.79
Silves
1.79
Vidago
1.79
Vila Caíz
1.79
Charneca Caparica
1.79
Oriental Lisboa
1.79
Angrense
1.79
Ançã
1.79
Sourense
1.79
Celoricense
1.79
AD Portomosense
1.79
Alcochetense
1.79
Fayal
1.79
Gouveia
1.79
Samora Correir
1.79
Estrela Calheta
1.79
Ribeira Brava
1.79
Aparecida GO
1.79
Mirandela
1.79
SC Celoricense
1.79
Almodôvar
1.79
Mosteirense
1.79
Águias do Moradal
1.79
Urzelinense
1.79
Celeirós
1.79
Quarteirense
1.79
AR São Martinho
1.79
Carregal
1.79
Juventude Évora
1.79
Pontassolense
1.79
Fazendense
1.79
Amarante
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Leça
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Monção
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Tondela
2.00
Farense
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Amora
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Trofense
3.00
Paredes
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Vizela
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Estrela
4.00
Valpaços
5.00
Fafe is 3.00 goals worse than Arouca in terms of goals conceded per game (4.00 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

FafeFafe

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AroucaArouca

For 3.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.5

🚩 Corners

1502105219411585376224216127101513813467A·ESTH·MORA·BENH·FAMH·FC A·NACH·CASA·GUIH·RIOA·SPO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.9

🟨 Cards

90133222615433274432114547969852A·ESTH·MORA·BENH·FAMH·FC A·NACH·CASA·GUIH·RIOA·SPO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 27.3

⚠️ Fouls

39013911111813221213818101821171513177722223134212839323014A·ESTH·MORA·BENH·FAMH·FC A·NACH·CASA·GUIH·RIOA·SPO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FafeFafe

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (3)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (1)---0.00.0----
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AroucaArouca

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.210.410.15.25.25.128.028.827.0
vs Stronger (16)10.611.010.35.46.34.823.825.122.8
vs Similar (32)10.19.910.24.84.94.730.230.230.1
vs Weaker (2)9.513.06.08.03.013.029.032.026.0
% over line55%62%48%74%68%80%85%92%78%
% under line45%38%52%26%32%20%15%8%22%
This opponent (Fafe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Portimonense
12.2
Penafiel
11.6
Oliveirense
11.5
União de Leiria
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
Torreense
10.8
Farense
10.7
Vizela
10.6
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Chaves
10.5
Famalicao
10.4
Nacional
10.4
Rio Ave
10.2
Arouca
10.1
Academico Viseu
10.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.0
Guimaraes
9.9
Feirense
9.7
Benfica
9.6
Estrela
9.6
Leixoes
9.5
Felgueiras 1932
9.5
Sporting CP
9.5
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Casa Pia
9.3
Tondela
9.2
Maritimo
9.1
FC Porto
9.1
SC Braga
9.0
Estoril
8.9
AVS
8.7
Pacos Ferreira
8.7
GIL Vicente
8.6
Mafra
8.5
Moreirense
8.3
Santa Clara
8.2
Alverca
8.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
Santa Clara
6.4
Felgueiras 1932
6.4
Pacos Ferreira
6.2
FC Porto
6.0
Sporting CP
5.8
Oliveirense
5.7
Leixoes
5.7
Famalicao
5.7
Casa Pia
5.7
União de Leiria
5.7
Vizela
5.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.6
Chaves
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.5
Torreense
5.5
Guimaraes
5.5
Maritimo
5.5
Arouca
5.5
SC Covilha
5.4
AVS
5.4
Estrela
5.3
Feirense
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.2
Penafiel
5.1
Nacional
5.1
Rio Ave
5.0
Tondela
5.0
Academico Viseu
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.9
Vilaverdense
4.8
Alverca
4.8
SC Braga
4.6
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
Estoril
4.5
Mafra
3.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
31.2
Estrela
30.7
Santa Clara
29.9
Moreirense
29.7
Vilaverdense
28.5
Estoril
28.4
Farense
28.2
SC Covilha
28.2
Guimaraes
28.2
Rio Ave
28.2
GIL Vicente
27.7
Casa Pia
27.7
AVS
27.6
Arouca
27.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
27.5
Nacional
27.4
Sporting CP
26.5
FC Porto
26.4
SC Braga
25.5
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Benfica
24.5
Tondela
20.2
Leixoes
18.2
Pacos Ferreira
18.0
Portimonense
17.3
Oliveirense
16.6
Academico Viseu
16.4
União de Leiria
16.4
Vizela
15.9
Alverca
15.5
Feirense
15.4
Maritimo
15.0
Mafra
14.9
Chaves
14.3
Penafiel
13.4
Felgueiras 1932
13.0
Torreense
10.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.6%
Under 9.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.2%
Under 3.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.4%
Under 21.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fafe or Draw✓ Hit
54.9%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
45%
covers Fafe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fafe or Arouca✓ Hit
73.6%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
45%
covers Fafe + Arouca
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arouca✗ Miss
71.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
45%
covers Draw + Arouca
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fafe over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.2%
Under
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Fafe, so a minus line means Fafe give that many goals of a start and Arouca receive them. At -1, Fafe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fafe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fafe)Actual: Arouca
Fafe -2
4.2%
Draw -2
8.4%
Arouca +2
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fafe)Actual: Draw
Fafe -1
12.6%
Draw -1
15.9%
Arouca +1
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fafe)Actual: Fafe
Fafe +1
54.9%
Draw +1
20.9%
Arouca -1
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fafe)Actual: Fafe
Fafe +2
75.9%
Draw +2
14.0%
Arouca -2
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FafeFafe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00DA·ORI21/09H·MOR19/10
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.000.000.001.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %100% (+69pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AroucaArouca

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D01L00D01L00D00D03L02L22DH·RIO23/08A·GUI30/08H·CAS14/09A·NAC20/09H·FC 29/09H·FAM05/10A·POR18/10A·BEN25/10H·MOR02/11A·EST07/11← Primeira LigaTaça de Portugal →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.400.530.531.13
vs Stronger (9)0.331.560.001.000.431.71
vs Similar (19)0.370.530.250.420.570.71
vs Weaker (2)2.000.503.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Fafe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fafe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FafeFafe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D10WA·ORI21/09H·MOR19/10
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.001.000.000.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %100% (+69pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AroucaArouca

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L00D01L21W03L11D21W02L00D12LH·RIO23/08A·GUI30/08H·CAS14/09A·NAC20/09H·FC 29/09H·FAM05/10A·POR18/10A·BEN25/10H·MOR02/11A·EST07/11← Primeira LigaTaça de Portugal →
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.930.800.930.930.93
vs Stronger (9)0.561.330.002.000.711.14
vs Similar (19)0.950.790.920.831.000.71
vs Weaker (2)1.500.501.000.002.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Fafe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fafe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.598.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.597.0%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals95.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.592.3%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals91.4%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap87.4%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals86.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.582.6%-------✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals80.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.580.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls79.6%--------
Under 11.5 corners77.7%--------
Over 2.5 cards77.4%--------
Under 5.5 cards77.2%--------
Away under 2.5 goals77.0%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap75.9%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away73.6%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals72.2%-------✓ Hit
Draw or Away71.5%-------✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap71.5%-------✗ Miss

🎽 13. Player market rates

Arouca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Barbero26%
Alfonso Trezza25%
Hyun-ju Lee23%
Naïs Djouahra15%
Taichi Fukui12%
Tiago Esgaio10%
Espen Van Ee8%
Jose Fontán7%
Bas Kuipers6%
Boris Popović6%
Dylan Nandín5%
Miguel Puche4%
Pablo Gozálbez4%
Javi Sánchez0%
David Simão0%
Nico Mantl0%
João Valido0%
Alex Pinto0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Amadou Dante0%
Arnau Solà0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Matías Rocha0%
Fally Mayulu0%
Diogo Monteiro0%
Pedro Santos0%
Yellu Santiago0%
Omar Fayed0%
Mateo Flores0%
José Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Omar Fayed50%
Javi Sánchez40%
Matías Rocha36%
Tiago Esgaio34%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena31%
Alex Pinto29%
Espen Van Ee27%
Jose Fontán27%
David Simão25%
Pedro Santos25%
Hyun-ju Lee23%
Bas Kuipers18%
Boris Popović18%
Mateo Flores17%
Ivan Barbero16%
Miguel Puche15%
Pablo Gozálbez14%
Diogo Monteiro12%
Arnau Solà10%
Dylan Nandín10%
Alfonso Trezza6%
Taichi Fukui6%
Naïs Djouahra6%
Brian Mansilla5%
Nico Mantl0%
João Valido0%
Amadou Dante0%
Fally Mayulu0%
Yellu Santiago0%
José Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tiago Esgaio17%
Bas Kuipers12%
Arnau Solà10%
Jose Fontán10%
Hyun-ju Lee10%
Dylan Nandín10%
Taichi Fukui9%
Naïs Djouahra9%
Pablo Gozálbez7%
Javi Sánchez7%
Ivan Barbero6%
Alfonso Trezza6%
Espen Van Ee4%
Miguel Puche4%
David Simão0%
Nico Mantl0%
João Valido0%
Alex Pinto0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Amadou Dante0%
Boris Popović0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Matías Rocha0%
Fally Mayulu0%
Diogo Monteiro0%
Pedro Santos0%
Yellu Santiago0%
Omar Fayed0%
Mateo Flores0%
José Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Barbero13%
Alfonso Trezza12%
Hyun-ju Lee7%
Dylan Nandín5%
Espen Van Ee4%
Naïs Djouahra3%
Javi Sánchez0%
David Simão0%
Nico Mantl0%
João Valido0%
Alex Pinto0%
Bas Kuipers0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Amadou Dante0%
Miguel Puche0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Arnau Solà0%
Boris Popović0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Matías Rocha0%
Fally Mayulu0%
Diogo Monteiro0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Yellu Santiago0%
Omar Fayed0%
Mateo Flores0%
José Silva0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
AMA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
MOR (5)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
ACA (4)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
FAF wins
0
Draws
0
ARO wins

Head-to-head

Fafe vs Arouca · H/A from FAF
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

FafeFafe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/25HFAF Vs Moreirense1-0
21/09/25AOriental Lisboa Vs FAF0-1
08/09/24HFAF Vs Amarante1-4

AroucaArouca

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/11/25AEstoril Vs ARO4-3
02/11/25HARO Vs Moreirense0-2
25/10/25ABenfica Vs ARO5-0
18/10/25APortimonense Vs ARO1-2
05/10/25HARO Vs Famalicao1-1
29/09/25HARO Vs FC Porto0-4
20/09/25ANacional Vs ARO1-2
14/09/25HARO Vs Casa Pia0-2
30/08/25AGuimaraes Vs ARO1-1
23/08/25HARO Vs Rio Ave3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Fafe
Fafe
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWW2.00
HomeLW1.50
AwayW3.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%50%100%
AVG goals2.333.001.00
Over 1.5 %33%50%0%
Over 2.5 %33%50%0%
Over 3.5 %33%50%0%
Scored1.001.001.00
Conceded1.332.000.00
BTTS33%50%0%
Clean Sheet67%50%100%
Corners---
Cards---
Arouca
Arouca
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.06
HomeDLLDL1.04
AwayDWWLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%24%28%
AVG goals2.942.483.40
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %56%40%72%
Over 3.5 %38%24%52%
Scored1.141.001.28
Conceded1.801.482.12
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners10.2310.3810.09
Cards5.495.465.52

🏆 17. League Table

Arouca plays in Portugal - Primeira Liga
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC PortoFC Porto3488
82%
2.6
6618+48
2.5
71%
56%
24%
8.6
35%
5.5
82%
26.4
71%
467
2141051481.90.5
55%
2Sporting CPSporting CP3482
74%
2.4
8924+65
3.3
91%
71%
35%
9.9
53%
5.2
62%
25.9
79%
414
146911762.60.7
62%
3BenficaBenfica3480
68%
2.4
7425+49
2.9
88%
71%
32%
10.0
56%
5.3
73%
26.8
74%
357
172771082.20.7
58%
4SC BragaSC Braga3459
47%
1.7
6436+28
2.9
76%
68%
38%
8.4
32%
5.0
79%
23.5
62%
165
4156681.91.1
63%
5FamalicaoFamalicao3456
44%
1.6
4229+13
2.1
53%
38%
24%
10.4
56%
5.1
68%
32.1
94%
57
1620221.20.9
51%
6GIL VicenteGIL Vicente3450
38%
1.5
4738+9
2.5
76%
53%
26%
9.5
50%
5.1
67%
28.2
85%
29
118111.41.1
50%
7MoreirenseMoreirense3443
35%
1.3
3749-12
2.5
74%
50%
21%
8.4
35%
4.9
68%
29.2
94%
22
5891.11.4
50%
8GuimaraesGuimaraes3442
35%
1.2
3951-12
2.6
76%
44%
24%
8.4
38%
5.2
74%
29.6
88%
46
2211121.11.5
51%
9AroucaArouca3442
35%
1.2
4764-17
3.3
79%
68%
50%
9.0
44%
5.7
79%
25.9
79%
28
11881.41.9
50%
10EstorilEstoril3439
29%
1.1
5457-3
3.3
76%
62%
53%
9.3
41%
4.9
88%
25.8
82%
42
248101.61.7
53%
11AlvercaAlverca3439
29%
1.1
3552-17
2.6
76%
50%
24%
8.9
44%
4.9
64%
26.4
71%
39
156181.01.5
45%
12Santa ClaraSanta Clara3436
26%
1.1
3241-9
2.1
56%
35%
15%
9.0
50%
6.1
85%
29.5
94%
27
96120.91.2
48%
13Rio AveRio Ave3436
24%
1.1
3557-22
2.7
82%
59%
29%
10.8
68%
5.2
62%
27.4
79%
37
88211.01.7
47%
14NacionalNacional3434
26%
1.0
3745-8
2.4
74%
41%
18%
10.8
68%
5.7
74%
27.2
88%
20
6591.11.3
46%
15Casa PiaCasa Pia3634
19%
0.9
3357-24
2.5
75%
42%
28%
10.0
50%
5.6
83%
29.8
92%
27
96120.91.6
41%
16EstrelaEstrela3430
18%
0.9
3856-18
2.8
74%
53%
38%
9.1
35%
5.6
82%
29.7
97%
20
63111.11.6
47%
17TondelaTondela3428
18%
0.8
2755-28
2.4
68%
50%
29%
9.8
50%
5.4
71%
26.8
82%
10
2160.81.6
44%
18AVSAVS3421
9%
0.6
2767-40
2.8
79%
59%
38%
9.5
47%
5.0
67%
24.7
71%
7
3230.82.0
39%
19TorreenseTorreense21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
11.5
50%
6.5
100%
25.5
100%
19
72100.01.0
60%
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →

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