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Fafe vs SC Braga Result & Analysis

Date: 14/01/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 2-1
Fafe
Fafe
Vs
13%
23%
64%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
SC Braga
SC Braga
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model points to an away win as the clear favourite, rating SC Braga’s 64% chance of triumph against Fafe’s 13% home advantage. Braga’s strong away form - averaging 2.27 goals scored and only 0.82 conceded against weaker opposition - explains the high probability, while Fafe’s recent 0-2 loss to Torreense dampens their confidence. The expected total goals sit at 2.8, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, a 12.3% chance that Braga will secure a clean-sheet victory. Home side Fafe has a 13% win rate, a 23% draw probability, and a 64% chance of an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 99.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.1%, Under 6.5 at 97.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 97.1%, Away +2 handicap at 95.9% (edge 95.9%), Home under 2.5 goals at 95.4%, Under 5.5 at 93.7%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 93.0%.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Fafe edged SC Braga 2-1, a result that shocked the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win with a 64% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong. Fafe’s recent form, a win-draw-win-win-win streak, had been promising, yet the away side’s unbeaten run of five games, including a 2-0 win over Austria Vienna, had seemed to secure the victory. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Away +2 handicap (95.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (95.4%) and Under 5.5 (93.7%). Each probability was expressed in percentage terms and no other figures were repeated.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fafe win✓ Hit
13.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SC Braga win✗ Miss
64.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FafeFafe

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L10W10W21W10WH·AMA08/09A·ORI21/09H·MOR19/10H·ARO23/11A·LUS27/12
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.001.331.671.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.250.251.500.501.000.00
vs Weaker (1)1.004.001.004.00--
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SC BragaSC Braga

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W11D40W21W10W10W01L30W22D33DH·NAC23/11A·RAN27/11A·ARO01/12A·FAM06/12A·NIC11/12H·SAN15/12A·EST19/12A·CAL23/12H·BEN28/12A·EST03/01
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.070.902.211.001.940.81
vs Stronger (3)1.331.672.002.001.001.50
vs Similar (6)1.670.832.001.331.330.33
vs Weaker (21)2.290.812.300.802.270.82
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Fafe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.4%
Under 2.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.2%
Under 3.5
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.3%
0-1
11.4%
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.7%
0-3
8.2%
0-0
7.2%
1-3
6.4%
0-4
4.0%
Fafe goals ↓
SC Braga goals →
01234
07.2%11%12%8.2%4.0%
13.9%11%9.7%6.4%3.2%
21.9%3.8%3.8%2.5%1.3%
30.5%1.0%1.0%0.7%0.3%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fafe goals (down), columns = SC Braga goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sporting CP
3.00
Benfica
2.57
Rebordosa
2.40
Alverca
2.33
Amarante
2.25
GIL Vicente
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
Cinfães
2.25
Lusitânia
2.25
SC Braga
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Moreirense
2.00
Chaves
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Leixoes
2.00
Farense
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Anadia
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Varzim
2.00
O Elvas
2.00
Operário
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Santa Clara
2.00
Brito
1.75
Vila Real
1.75
Rio Ave
1.67
Estrela
1.50
FC Porto
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
Academica
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Atlético CP
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Alpendorada
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Amora
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
Arouca
1.50
Sanjoanense
1.33
Caldas
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Atlético Malveira
1.02
Vila Meã
1.02
Portalegrense
1.02
Correlhã
1.02
Vitória de Sernache
1.02
Florgrade
1.02
Nazarenos
1.02
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.02
Valenciano
1.02
Castro Daire
1.02
Uniao Nogueirense
1.02
Espinho
1.02
Naval 1893
1.02
Rebordelo
1.02
Portimonense B
1.02
Ançã
1.02
Resende
1.02
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.02
Silves
1.02
Vidago
1.02
AD Fornos Algodres
1.02
Vila Caíz
1.02
Angrense
1.02
Charneca Caparica
1.02
Oriental Lisboa
1.02
Sourense
1.02
Celoricense
1.02
AD Portomosense
1.02
Alcochetense
1.02
Fayal
1.02
Gouveia
1.02
Samora Correir
1.02
Ribeira Brava
1.02
Aparecida GO
1.02
Mirandela
1.02
Estrela Calheta
1.02
SC Celoricense
1.02
Almodôvar
1.02
Mosteirense
1.02
Águias do Moradal
1.02
Urzelinense
1.02
Celeirós
1.02
Quarteirense
1.02
AR São Martinho
1.02
Carregal
1.02
Juventude Évora
1.02
Fazendense
1.02
Pontassolense
1.02
Academico Viseu
1.00
Estoril
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Leça
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Nacional
0.00
Trofense
0.00
Vizela
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Tondela
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Monção
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Portel
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Fafe is 2.25 points worse than SC Braga in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.29
Amarante
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Comércio Indústria
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Arouca
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
Alverca
2.67
Anadia
2.67
Sporting CP
2.57
Vilaverdense
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
Cinfães
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Farense
2.33
Sanjoanense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
FC Porto
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
AVS
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Leça
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Rio Ave
1.83
Lusitânia
1.75
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
Varzim
1.67
Estrela
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
SC Braga
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
O Elvas
1.40
Moreirense
1.33
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
Atlético Malveira
1.29
Vila Meã
1.29
Portalegrense
1.29
Correlhã
1.29
Vitória de Sernache
1.29
Florgrade
1.29
Nazarenos
1.29
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.29
Valenciano
1.29
Castro Daire
1.29
Uniao Nogueirense
1.29
Espinho
1.29
Naval 1893
1.29
Rebordelo
1.29
Portimonense B
1.29
Ançã
1.29
Resende
1.29
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.29
Silves
1.29
Vidago
1.29
AD Fornos Algodres
1.29
Vila Caíz
1.29
Angrense
1.29
Charneca Caparica
1.29
Oriental Lisboa
1.29
Sourense
1.29
Celoricense
1.29
AD Portomosense
1.29
Alcochetense
1.29
Fayal
1.29
Gouveia
1.29
Samora Correir
1.29
Ribeira Brava
1.29
Aparecida GO
1.29
Mirandela
1.29
Estrela Calheta
1.29
SC Celoricense
1.29
Almodôvar
1.29
Mosteirense
1.29
Águias do Moradal
1.29
Urzelinense
1.29
Celeirós
1.29
Quarteirense
1.29
AR São Martinho
1.29
Carregal
1.29
Juventude Évora
1.29
Fazendense
1.29
Pontassolense
1.29
GIL Vicente
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Tirsense
1.14
Academico Viseu
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Academica
1.00
Tondela
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Monção
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Operário
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Brito
0.75
Vila Real
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Amora
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Estoril
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Portel
0.00
Peniche
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Fafe is 0.50 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Estoril
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Operário
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Academica
0.50
FC Serpa
0.50
Brito
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Benfica
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
Santa Clara
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
Academico Viseu
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
FC Porto
1.00
Chaves
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Feirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
Machico
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
Louletano
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Alpendorada
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Portel
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Arouca
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Alverca
1.33
Sanjoanense
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Rio Ave
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Atlético CP
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Anadia
1.67
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Atlético Malveira
1.82
Vila Meã
1.82
Portalegrense
1.82
Correlhã
1.82
Vitória de Sernache
1.82
Florgrade
1.82
Nazarenos
1.82
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.82
Valenciano
1.82
Castro Daire
1.82
Uniao Nogueirense
1.82
Espinho
1.82
Naval 1893
1.82
Rebordelo
1.82
Portimonense B
1.82
Ançã
1.82
Resende
1.82
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.82
Silves
1.82
Vidago
1.82
AD Fornos Algodres
1.82
Vila Caíz
1.82
Angrense
1.82
Charneca Caparica
1.82
Oriental Lisboa
1.82
Sourense
1.82
Celoricense
1.82
AD Portomosense
1.82
Alcochetense
1.82
Fayal
1.82
Gouveia
1.82
Samora Correir
1.82
Ribeira Brava
1.82
Aparecida GO
1.82
Mirandela
1.82
Estrela Calheta
1.82
SC Celoricense
1.82
Almodôvar
1.82
Mosteirense
1.82
Águias do Moradal
1.82
Urzelinense
1.82
Celeirós
1.82
Quarteirense
1.82
AR São Martinho
1.82
Carregal
1.82
Juventude Évora
1.82
Fazendense
1.82
Pontassolense
1.82
Amarante
2.00
Farense
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Tondela
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Leça
2.00
Monção
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Amora
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Trofense
3.00
Paredes
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Estrela
4.00
Vizela
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Valpaços
5.00
Fafe is 3.25 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals conceded per game (4.00 vs 0.75).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

FafeFafe

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SC BragaSC Braga

For 5.3 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.6

🚩 Corners

14075155951379363853921261461012611811A·ESTH·BENA·ESTH·SANA·NICA·FAMA·AROA·RANH·MORH·GEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.3

🟨 Cards

9012522513243155432213774645953A·ESTH·BENA·ESTH·SANA·NICA·FAMA·AROA·RANH·MORH·GEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.8 · Total 24.8

⚠️ Fouls

380814149812101515819109111820131561422232025232920382820A·ESTH·BENA·ESTH·SANA·NICA·FAMA·AROA·RANH·MORH·GEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FafeFafe

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (5)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (4)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (1)---0.00.0----
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SC BragaSC Braga

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.19.19.04.03.64.325.023.126.9
vs Stronger (7)7.29.35.06.47.06.027.825.330.3
vs Similar (9)9.78.811.03.82.25.825.122.828.3
vs Weaker (34)9.39.29.43.53.43.624.422.825.9
% over line45%43%48%54%54%54%69%52%86%
% under line55%57%52%46%46%46%31%48%14%
This opponent (Fafe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Penafiel
12.2
Portimonense
11.4
Vizela
10.9
Farense
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
Academico Viseu
10.7
União de Leiria
10.7
Chaves
10.7
Famalicao
10.6
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Nacional
10.3
Oliveirense
10.3
Arouca
10.2
Felgueiras 1932
10.2
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.0
Rio Ave
10.0
Torreense
9.7
Guimaraes
9.6
Benfica
9.6
Casa Pia
9.4
Tondela
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Sporting CP
9.3
Estrela
9.3
Feirense
9.2
GIL Vicente
9.2
Estoril
9.1
SC Braga
9.0
Leixoes
9.0
Pacos Ferreira
9.0
AVS
9.0
Maritimo
8.8
FC Porto
8.6
Mafra
8.5
Santa Clara
8.5
Moreirense
8.2
Alverca
8.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
Santa Clara
6.5
Pacos Ferreira
6.4
Felgueiras 1932
6.3
Chaves
6.1
Vizela
6.0
Leixoes
6.0
Oliveirense
6.0
Torreense
5.8
FC Porto
5.8
Farense
5.8
Sporting CP
5.7
Maritimo
5.7
Famalicao
5.6
Casa Pia
5.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.6
Feirense
5.6
Guimaraes
5.5
União de Leiria
5.5
Nacional
5.4
SC Covilha
5.4
Portimonense
5.4
Arouca
5.4
Academico Viseu
5.3
Estrela
5.3
AVS
5.3
Penafiel
5.2
Rio Ave
5.2
GIL Vicente
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Tondela
5.0
Benfica
5.0
Vilaverdense
4.8
Alverca
4.8
SC Braga
4.7
Estoril
4.5
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
Mafra
3.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
31.9
Estrela
31.2
Moreirense
30.4
Santa Clara
30.2
Lusitânia Lourosa
29.5
Farense
29.4
Guimaraes
28.7
Estoril
28.6
Vilaverdense
28.5
Casa Pia
28.3
Rio Ave
28.3
SC Covilha
28.2
GIL Vicente
28.2
Arouca
27.5
Nacional
27.4
AVS
27.4
FC Porto
26.9
Sporting CP
26.9
Benfica
25.5
SC Braga
25.1
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Leixoes
20.5
Tondela
20.3
Pacos Ferreira
18.4
Academico Viseu
17.9
União de Leiria
17.8
Alverca
17.4
Oliveirense
17.4
Portimonense
15.8
Maritimo
15.7
Feirense
15.4
Felgueiras 1932
14.9
Mafra
14.9
Penafiel
14.3
Vizela
14.0
Chaves
13.0
Torreense
12.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
66.0%
Under 9.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.9%
Under 3.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
93.0%
Under 21.5
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fafe or Draw✓ Hit
35.5%
Avg Implied -
13%
23%
64%
covers Fafe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fafe or SC Braga✓ Hit
77.5%
Avg Implied -
13%
23%
64%
covers Fafe + SC Braga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or SC Braga✗ Miss
87.0%
Avg Implied -
13%
23%
64%
covers Draw + SC Braga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fafe over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
54.5%
Under
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.3%
Under
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
59.0%
Under
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Fafe, so a minus line means Fafe give that many goals of a start and SC Braga receive them. At -1, Fafe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fafe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fafe)Actual: SC Braga
Fafe -2
0.9%
Draw -2
3.2%
SC Braga +2
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fafe)Actual: Draw
Fafe -1
4.1%
Draw -1
8.9%
SC Braga +1
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fafe)Actual: Fafe
Fafe +1
35.5%
Draw +1
24.0%
SC Braga -1
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fafe)Actual: Fafe
Fafe +2
59.5%
Draw +2
20.1%
SC Braga -2
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FafeFafe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00D01L00DA·ORI21/09H·MOR19/10H·ARO23/11A·LUS27/12
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.250.250.000.500.500.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.250.250.000.500.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %75% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SC BragaSC Braga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L30W11D10W10W01L00D21W11DH·NAC23/11A·RAN27/11A·ARO01/12A·FAM06/12A·NIC11/12H·SAN15/12A·EST19/12A·CAL23/12H·BEN28/12A·EST03/01
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.531.360.430.940.62
vs Stronger (3)0.671.002.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (6)0.670.330.670.330.670.33
vs Weaker (21)1.330.521.500.401.180.64
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Fafe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fafe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FafeFafe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W20W10WA·ORI21/09H·MOR19/10H·ARO23/11A·LUS27/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.001.500.000.500.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.000.001.500.000.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %100% (+71pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SC BragaSC Braga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W10W10W00D00D00D30W01L22DH·NAC23/11A·RAN27/11A·ARO01/12A·FAM06/12A·NIC11/12H·SAN15/12A·EST19/12A·CAL23/12H·BEN28/12A·EST03/01
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.370.860.571.000.19
vs Stronger (3)0.670.670.001.001.000.50
vs Similar (6)1.000.501.331.000.670.00
vs Weaker (21)0.950.290.800.401.090.18
Clean sheet %77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Fafe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fafe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fafe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.2%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals99.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.597.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls97.1%--------
Away +2 handicap95.9%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals95.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.593.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls93.0%--------
Draw or Away87.0%-------✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap87.0%-------✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals86.3%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals86.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls85.9%--------
Under 4.585.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards82.1%--------
Home under 1.5 goals81.3%-------✗ Miss
Home or Away77.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.577.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners76.8%--------
Over 25.5 fouls75.3%--------
Under 5.5 cards71.1%--------

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (22)
€460m
BEN (19)
€288m
SB (35)
€215m
FAM (27)
€109m
GUI (34)
€73m
GV (30)
€61m
EST (26)
€57m
RA (36)
€53m
ALV (32)
€52m
SC (31)
€46m
CP (34)
€34m
ARO (33)
€32m
EST (39)
€29m
MOR (25)
€28m
NAC (32)
€27m
TON (32)
€25m
TOR (32)
€20m
AVS (34)
€19m
AV (35)
€18m
MAR (26)
€15m
VIZ (31)
€12m
UDL (30)
€12m
FAR (32)
€11m
FEI (33)
€11m
POR (31)
€10m
CHA (29)
€9m
LEI (32)
€8m
F1 (28)
€8m
PEN (29)
€7m
OLI (30)
€7m
LL (27)
€6m
PF (24)
€6m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (7)
€190m
BEN (6)
€105m
SB (13)
€100m
FAM (11)
€51m
GV (14)
€37m
GUI (12)
€34m
EST (8)
€25m
RA (12)
€21m
ALV (11)
€18m
SC (11)
€17m
NAC (11)
€12m
ARO (11)
€12m
MOR (8)
€10m
CP (11)
€9m
AV (15)
€8m
TON (12)
€7m
EST (15)
€7m
TOR (13)
€6m
MAR (10)
€6m
AVS (12)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
POR (9)
€5m
FEI (12)
€4m
CHA (10)
€4m
UDL (7)
€3m
FAR (13)
€3m
OLI (11)
€3m
PF (10)
€3m
LEI (12)
€3m
F1 (9)
€2m
PEN (9)
€2m
LL (10)
€2m
ACA (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEN (6)
€93m
SC (4)
€72m
SB (9)
€46m
GUI (8)
€26m
FAM (5)
€17m
ALV (9)
€13m
CP (7)
€10m
EST (5)
€10m
SC (6)
€10m
ARO (7)
€9m
MOR (6)
€8m
AVS (7)
€7m
EST (7)
€7m
RA (7)
€5m
GV (4)
€5m
TOR (6)
€5m
NAC (8)
€4m
TON (6)
€3m
UDL (9)
€3m
FEI (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
AV (6)
€2m
POR (8)
€2m
CHA (8)
€2m
FAR (5)
€2m
PEN (7)
€2m
LEI (6)
€2m
F1 (5)
€2m
VIZ (3)
€2m
LL (5)
€1m
OLI (6)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (11)
€198m
BEN (7)
€90m
SB (13)
€69m
FAM (11)
€41m
RA (17)
€26m
ALV (12)
€22m
EST (13)
€22m
GV (12)
€19m
SC (14)
€19m
EST (17)
€15m
CP (16)
€15m
TON (14)
€15m
GUI (14)
€13m
ARO (15)
€11m
MOR (11)
€10m
NAC (13)
€10m
TOR (13)
€9m
AV (14)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
AVS (15)
€7m
FAR (14)
€6m
UDL (14)
€6m
VIZ (15)
€5m
FEI (14)
€4m
POR (14)
€4m
CHA (11)
€4m
F1 (14)
€4m
LEI (14)
€3m
PEN (13)
€3m
OLI (13)
€3m
LL (12)
€3m
PF (12)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
FAF wins
0
Draws
0
SB wins

Head-to-head

Fafe vs SC Braga · H/A from FAF
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

FafeFafe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/12/25ALusitano Évora 1911 Vs FAF0-1
23/11/25HFAF Vs Arouca2-1
19/10/25HFAF Vs Moreirense1-0
21/09/25AOriental Lisboa Vs FAF0-1
08/09/24HFAF Vs Amarante1-4

SC BragaSC Braga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/01/26AEstrela Vs SB3-3
28/12/25HSB Vs Benfica2-2
23/12/25ACaldas Vs SB0-3
19/12/25AEstoril Vs SB1-0
15/12/25HSB Vs Santa Clara1-0
11/12/25ANice Vs SB0-1
06/12/25AFamalicao Vs SB1-2
01/12/25AArouca Vs SB0-4
27/11/25ARangers Vs SB1-1
23/11/25HSB Vs Nacional4-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Fafe
Fafe
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW2.40
HomeLWW2.00
AwayWW3.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %80%67%100%
AVG goals2.203.001.00
Over 1.5 %40%67%0%
Over 2.5 %40%67%0%
Over 3.5 %20%33%0%
Scored1.201.331.00
Conceded1.001.670.00
BTTS40%67%0%
Clean Sheet60%33%100%
Corners---
Cards---
SC Braga
SC Braga
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDD2.00
HomeLWWWD2.29
AwayWWLWD1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%71%46%
AVG goals2.542.752.35
Over 1.5 %70%67%73%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %22%29%15%
Scored1.762.001.54
Conceded0.780.750.81
BTTS46%42%50%
Clean Sheet46%50%42%
Corners9.079.149.00
Cards4.403.785.05

🏆 16. League Table

SC Braga plays in Portugal - Primeira Liga
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC PortoFC Porto3488
82%
2.6
6618+48
2.5
71%
56%
24%
8.6
35%
5.5
82%
26.4
71%
0
0001.90.5
55%
2Sporting CPSporting CP3482
74%
2.4
8924+65
3.3
91%
71%
35%
9.9
53%
5.2
62%
25.9
79%
460
190721982.60.7
62%
3BenficaBenfica3480
68%
2.4
7425+49
2.9
88%
71%
32%
10.0
56%
5.3
73%
26.8
74%
288
10593902.20.7
58%
4SC BragaSC Braga3459
47%
1.7
6436+28
2.9
76%
68%
38%
8.4
32%
5.0
79%
23.5
62%
215
10046691.91.1
63%
5FamalicaoFamalicao3456
44%
1.6
4229+13
2.1
53%
38%
24%
10.4
56%
5.1
68%
32.1
94%
109
5117411.20.9
51%
6GIL VicenteGIL Vicente3450
38%
1.5
4738+9
2.5
76%
53%
26%
9.5
50%
5.1
67%
28.2
85%
61
375191.41.1
50%
7MoreirenseMoreirense3443
35%
1.3
3749-12
2.5
74%
50%
21%
8.4
35%
4.9
68%
29.2
94%
28
108101.11.4
50%
8GuimaraesGuimaraes3442
35%
1.2
3951-12
2.6
76%
44%
24%
8.4
38%
5.2
74%
29.6
88%
73
3426131.11.5
51%
9AroucaArouca3442
35%
1.2
4764-17
3.3
79%
68%
50%
9.0
44%
5.7
79%
25.9
79%
32
129111.41.9
50%
10EstorilEstoril3439
29%
1.1
5457-3
3.3
76%
62%
53%
9.3
41%
4.9
88%
25.8
82%
57
2510221.61.7
53%
11AlvercaAlverca3439
29%
1.1
3552-17
2.6
76%
50%
24%
8.9
44%
4.9
64%
26.4
71%
52
1813221.01.5
45%
12Santa ClaraSanta Clara3436
26%
1.1
3241-9
2.1
56%
35%
15%
9.0
50%
6.1
85%
29.5
94%
46
1710190.91.2
48%
13Rio AveRio Ave3436
24%
1.1
3557-22
2.7
82%
59%
29%
10.8
68%
5.2
62%
27.4
79%
53
215261.01.7
47%
14NacionalNacional3434
26%
1.0
3745-8
2.4
74%
41%
18%
10.8
68%
5.7
74%
27.2
88%
27
124101.11.3
46%
15Casa PiaCasa Pia3634
19%
0.9
3357-24
2.5
75%
42%
28%
10.0
50%
5.6
83%
29.8
92%
34
910150.91.6
41%
16EstrelaEstrela3430
18%
0.9
3856-18
2.8
74%
53%
38%
9.1
35%
5.6
82%
29.7
97%
29
77151.11.6
47%
17TondelaTondela3428
18%
0.8
2755-28
2.4
68%
50%
29%
9.8
50%
5.4
71%
26.8
82%
25
73150.81.6
44%
18AVSAVS3421
9%
0.6
2767-40
2.8
79%
59%
38%
9.5
47%
5.0
67%
24.7
71%
19
6770.82.0
39%
19TorreenseTorreense21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
11.5
50%
6.5
100%
25.5
100%
20
6590.01.0
60%
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →

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