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Famalicao vs Alverca Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 19:30
Final 1-0
Famalicao
Famalicao
Vs
58%
26%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Alverca
Alverca
Portugal: Primeira Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Famalicao a 58% win probability against Alverca in the Portugal: Primeira Liga on 2026-05-16, with 26% for the draw and 16% for Alverca. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (13.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (86%), Under 3.5 (77%), Over 3.5 cards (76%), Over 1.5 (71%).

Results analysis

Famalicao finished 1-0 against Alverca (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 58% home win, 26% draw and 16% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (77%). Missed: Over 21.5 fouls (86%), Over 3.5 cards (76%), Over 1.5 (71%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Famalicao win✓ Hit
57.9%
Avg Implied 57.9% · @ 1.59
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.93
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alverca win✗ Miss
15.8%
Avg Implied 18.7% · @ 4.92
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FamalicaoFamalicao

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W21W10W22D11D22D10W22D00DA·RIO01/03H·ARO06/03A·GUI14/03H·NAC21/03A·FC 04/04H·MOR10/04A·SC 19/04A·EST26/04H·BEN02/05A·EST11/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.971.640.860.881.06
vs Stronger (8)1.001.621.001.751.001.50
vs Similar (9)0.891.111.000.330.831.50
vs Weaker (13)1.620.462.290.570.830.33
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlvercaAlverca

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D22D14L21W31W01L21W01L11DA·GUI28/02H·AVS07/03A·GIL14/03H·SPO22/03A·RIO04/04H·CAS12/04A·NAC18/04H·ARO24/04A·FC 02/05H·EST10/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.471.121.251.001.71
vs Stronger (7)0.432.710.673.000.252.50
vs Similar (10)1.301.301.171.171.501.50
vs Weaker (13)1.230.921.290.571.171.33
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.9%
@ 1.65-12.2%
Under 2.5
56.1%
@ 2.11+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.5%
No
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
13.5%
1-1
12.3%
2-0
12.2%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.8%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.2%
Famalicao goals ↓
Alverca goals →
01234
09.9%5.6%2.6%0.7%0.1%
114%12%4.3%1.1%0.2%
212%9.3%3.6%0.9%0.2%
36.8%5.2%2.0%0.5%0.1%
42.8%2.2%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Famalicao goals (down), columns = Alverca goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.24
Arouca
1.24
Alverca
1.15
Estoril
1.15
Santa Clara
1.06
Rio Ave
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Tondela
0.82
AVS
0.62
Torreense
0.50
Famalicao is 0.50 points better than Alverca in terms of average points per game (1.65 vs 1.15).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
GIL Vicente
1.38
Arouca
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Alverca
1.03
Rio Ave
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
AVS
0.79
Tondela
0.79
Torreense
0.00
Famalicao is 0.21 goals better than Alverca in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
Torreense
1.00
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Casa Pia
1.58
Tondela
1.62
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
AVS
1.97
Famalicao is 0.68 goals better than Alverca in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Torreense
60%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Tondela
44%
Casa Pia
41%
AVS
39%
Famalicao is 6.5 percentage points better than Alverca in terms of average possession (51% vs 45%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

FamalicaoFamalicao

For 6.6 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.6

🚩 Corners

140103644925133476113515513101371371314610A·ESTH·BENA·ESTA·SC H·MORA·FC H·NACA·GUIH·AROA·RIO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.4

🟨 Cards

110132325256453311112445271196226A·ESTH·BENA·ESTA·SC H·MORA·FC H·NACA·GUIH·AROA·RIO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 16.9 · Total 30.2

⚠️ Fouls

35091620141119111015151420131813221216151925343021303431352834A·ESTH·BENA·ESTA·SC H·MORA·FC H·NACA·GUIH·AROA·RIO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AlvercaAlverca

For 6.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.3

🚩 Corners

20044456384911483173811899122012410811H·ESTA·FC H·AROA·NACH·CASA·RIOH·SPOA·GILH·AVSA·GUI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

6032416121212131321225563334434H·ESTA·FC H·AROA·NACA·RIOH·SPOA·GILH·AVSA·GUIH·SAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 13.8 · Total 24.9

⚠️ Fouls

40020151921812151510156713981571351635402030251322232021H·ESTA·FC H·AROA·NACH·CASA·RIOH·SPOA·GILH·AVSA·GUI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FamalicaoFamalicao

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.410.310.55.45.35.532.432.832.1
vs Stronger (12)10.110.49.95.45.65.330.634.028.1
vs Similar (16)10.010.010.05.55.85.234.334.234.4
vs Weaker (22)11.010.511.45.44.95.932.131.233.0
% over line52%54%50%76%83%69%96%100%92%
% under line48%46%50%24%17%31%4%0%8%
This opponent (Alverca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlvercaAlverca

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.98.09.94.13.74.622.323.521.1
vs Stronger (8)7.25.59.04.44.84.025.123.227.0
vs Similar (15)8.16.89.64.64.25.224.826.122.8
vs Weaker (27)10.410.110.63.72.94.519.921.718.4
% over line46%28%65%58%54%62%60%62%57%
% under line54%72%35%42%46%38%40%38%43%
This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.4
Nacional
10.4
Rio Ave
10.2
Torreense
10.0
Benfica
10.0
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.6
Tondela
9.6
Arouca
9.2
GIL Vicente
9.2
AVS
9.2
Estrela
9.0
Guimaraes
9.0
Alverca
8.9
Santa Clara
8.8
Estoril
8.7
FC Porto
8.6
Moreirense
8.2
SC Braga
8.2

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.2
Casa Pia
5.8
FC Porto
5.6
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.5
Nacional
5.5
Famalicao
5.4
Torreense
5.4
Benfica
5.3
Sporting CP
5.3
AVS
5.3
Guimaraes
5.3
Rio Ave
5.2
Tondela
5.2
Moreirense
5.1
GIL Vicente
5.0
Alverca
4.9
SC Braga
4.8
Estoril
4.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.4
Estrela
30.5
Santa Clara
30.2
Moreirense
29.6
Guimaraes
29.4
Casa Pia
29.1
GIL Vicente
28.0
Rio Ave
27.5
Estoril
27.5
Nacional
27.3
Arouca
26.7
FC Porto
26.4
Benfica
26.4
AVS
26.3
Sporting CP
25.7
Tondela
24.6
SC Braga
23.9
Alverca
22.3
Torreense
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.8%
Under 9.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
76.4%
Under 3.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
86.5%
Under 21.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 21.5 fouls86.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.577.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards76.4%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.571.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (22)
€460m
BEN (19)
€288m
SB (35)
€215m
FAM (27)
€109m
GUI (34)
€73m
GV (30)
€61m
EST (26)
€57m
RA (36)
€53m
ALV (32)
€52m
SC (31)
€46m
CP (34)
€34m
ARO (33)
€32m
EST (39)
€29m
MOR (25)
€28m
NAC (32)
€27m
TON (32)
€25m
TOR (32)
€20m
AVS (34)
€19m
Famalicao's squad is €57m more valuable than Alverca's (€109m vs €52m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (7)
€190m
BEN (6)
€105m
SB (13)
€100m
FAM (11)
€51m
GV (14)
€37m
GUI (12)
€34m
EST (8)
€25m
RA (12)
€21m
ALV (11)
€18m
SC (11)
€17m
NAC (11)
€12m
ARO (11)
€12m
MOR (8)
€10m
CP (11)
€9m
TON (12)
€7m
EST (15)
€7m
TOR (13)
€6m
AVS (12)
€6m
Famalicao's attack is €34m more valuable than Alverca's (€51m vs €18m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEN (6)
€93m
SC (4)
€72m
SB (9)
€46m
GUI (8)
€26m
FAM (5)
€17m
ALV (9)
€13m
CP (7)
€10m
EST (5)
€10m
SC (6)
€10m
ARO (7)
€9m
MOR (6)
€8m
AVS (7)
€7m
EST (7)
€7m
RA (7)
€5m
GV (4)
€5m
TOR (6)
€5m
NAC (8)
€4m
TON (6)
€3m
Famalicao's midfield is €4m more valuable than Alverca's (€17m vs €13m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (11)
€198m
BEN (7)
€90m
SB (13)
€69m
FAM (11)
€41m
RA (17)
€26m
ALV (12)
€22m
EST (13)
€22m
GV (12)
€19m
SC (14)
€19m
EST (17)
€15m
CP (16)
€15m
TON (14)
€15m
GUI (14)
€13m
ARO (15)
€11m
MOR (11)
€10m
NAC (13)
€10m
TOR (13)
€9m
AVS (15)
€7m
Famalicao's defence is €19m more valuable than Alverca's (€41m vs €22m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Famalicao vs Alverca · H/A from FAM
DateH/AGameScore
04/01/26AAlverca Vs FAM1-0

FamalicaoFamalicao

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/26AEstrela Vs FAM0-0
02/05/26HFAM Vs Benfica2-2
26/04/26AEstoril Vs FAM0-1
19/04/26ASC Braga Vs FAM2-2
10/04/26HFAM Vs Moreirense1-1
04/04/26AFC Porto Vs FAM2-2
21/03/26HFAM Vs Nacional1-0
14/03/26AGuimaraes Vs FAM1-2
06/03/26HFAM Vs Arouca1-0
01/03/26ARio Ave Vs FAM0-0

AlvercaAlverca

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HALV Vs Estoril1-1
02/05/26AFC Porto Vs ALV1-0
24/04/26HALV Vs Arouca2-1
18/04/26ANacional Vs ALV1-0
12/04/26HALV Vs Casa Pia3-1
04/04/26ARio Ave Vs ALV1-2
22/03/26HALV Vs Sporting CP1-4
14/03/26AGIL Vicente Vs ALV2-2
07/03/26HALV Vs AVS0-0
28/02/26AGuimaraes Vs ALV1-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Famalicao
Famalicao
Portugal: Primeira Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWDD1.60
HomeWWWDD1.92
AwayWDDWD1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%54%35%
AVG goals2.262.252.27
Over 1.5 %64%67%62%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %22%21%23%
Scored1.301.621.00
Conceded0.960.621.27
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet46%58%35%
Corners10.4410.3310.54
Cards5.445.335.54
Alverca
Alverca
Portugal: Primeira Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLD1.54
HomeDLWWD1.88
AwayDDWLL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%54%29%
AVG goals2.602.502.71
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %26%23%29%
Scored1.341.461.21
Conceded1.261.041.50
BTTS54%46%62%
Clean Sheet30%42%17%
Corners8.948.009.94
Cards4.884.325.50

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC PortoFC Porto3488
82%
2.6
6618+48
2.5
71%
56%
24%
8.6
35%
5.5
82%
26.4
71%
0
0001.90.5
55%
2Sporting CPSporting CP3482
74%
2.4
8924+65
3.3
91%
71%
35%
9.9
53%
5.2
62%
25.9
79%
460
190721982.60.7
62%
3BenficaBenfica3480
68%
2.4
7425+49
2.9
88%
71%
32%
10.0
56%
5.3
73%
26.8
74%
288
10593902.20.7
58%
4SC BragaSC Braga3459
47%
1.7
6436+28
2.9
76%
68%
38%
8.4
32%
5.0
79%
23.5
62%
215
10046691.91.1
63%
5FamalicaoFamalicao3456
44%
1.6
4229+13
2.1
53%
38%
24%
10.4
56%
5.1
68%
32.1
94%
109
5117411.20.9
51%
6GIL VicenteGIL Vicente3450
38%
1.5
4738+9
2.5
76%
53%
26%
9.5
50%
5.1
67%
28.2
85%
61
375191.41.1
50%
7MoreirenseMoreirense3443
35%
1.3
3749-12
2.5
74%
50%
21%
8.4
35%
4.9
68%
29.2
94%
28
108101.11.4
50%
8GuimaraesGuimaraes3442
35%
1.2
3951-12
2.6
76%
44%
24%
8.4
38%
5.2
74%
29.6
88%
73
3426131.11.5
51%
9AroucaArouca3442
35%
1.2
4764-17
3.3
79%
68%
50%
9.0
44%
5.7
79%
25.9
79%
32
129111.41.9
50%
10EstorilEstoril3439
29%
1.1
5457-3
3.3
76%
62%
53%
9.3
41%
4.9
88%
25.8
82%
57
2510221.61.7
53%
11AlvercaAlverca3439
29%
1.1
3552-17
2.6
76%
50%
24%
8.9
44%
4.9
64%
26.4
71%
52
1813221.01.5
45%
12Santa ClaraSanta Clara3436
26%
1.1
3241-9
2.1
56%
35%
15%
9.0
50%
6.1
85%
29.5
94%
46
1710190.91.2
48%
13Rio AveRio Ave3436
24%
1.1
3557-22
2.7
82%
59%
29%
10.8
68%
5.2
62%
27.4
79%
53
215261.01.7
47%
14NacionalNacional3434
26%
1.0
3745-8
2.4
74%
41%
18%
10.8
68%
5.7
74%
27.2
88%
27
124101.11.3
46%
15Casa PiaCasa Pia3634
19%
0.9
3357-24
2.5
75%
42%
28%
10.0
50%
5.6
83%
29.8
92%
34
910150.91.6
41%
16EstrelaEstrela3430
18%
0.9
3856-18
2.8
74%
53%
38%
9.1
35%
5.6
82%
29.7
97%
29
77151.11.6
47%
17TondelaTondela3428
18%
0.8
2755-28
2.4
68%
50%
29%
9.8
50%
5.4
71%
26.8
82%
25
73150.81.6
44%
18AVSAVS3421
9%
0.6
2767-40
2.8
79%
59%
38%
9.5
47%
5.0
67%
24.7
71%
19
6770.82.0
39%
19TorreenseTorreense21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
11.5
50%
6.5
100%
25.5
100%
20
6590.01.0
60%
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →

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