This opponent (Lugo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lugo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
0.94
0.94
0.86
2.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.81
0.50
1.00
0.90
2.30
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.00
1.20
0.90
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.8%
@ 2.64+10.2%
Under 2.5
54.2%
@ 1.46-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
9.4%
2-1 ✓
9.1%
2-0
8.8%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.7%
FC Cartagena goals ↓
Lugo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
7.2%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.1%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Cartagena goals (down), columns = Lugo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Valladolid
1.93
Almeria
1.93
Eibar
1.90
Las Palmas
1.67
Tenerife
1.64
Girona
1.62
Oviedo
1.62
Ponferradina
1.50
FC Cartagena
1.43
Zaragoza
1.33
Burgos
1.31
Leganes
1.29
Huesca
1.29
Ibiza
1.24
Mirandes
1.24
Lugo
1.19
Sporting Gijon
1.10
Malaga
1.07
Amorebieta
1.02
Real Sociedad II
0.95
Fuenlabrada
0.79
Alcorcon
0.69
FC Cartagena is 0.24 points better than Lugo in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valladolid
1.69
Almeria
1.62
FC Cartagena
1.50
Eibar
1.45
Mirandes
1.38
Girona
1.36
Ponferradina
1.36
Las Palmas
1.36
Oviedo
1.36
Ibiza
1.26
Tenerife
1.26
Leganes
1.19
Huesca
1.17
Lugo
1.10
Amorebieta
1.05
Real Sociedad II
1.02
Sporting Gijon
1.02
Burgos
0.98
Fuenlabrada
0.93
Zaragoza
0.93
Alcorcon
0.88
Malaga
0.86
FC Cartagena is 0.40 goals better than Lugo in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Almeria
0.83
Tenerife
0.88
Oviedo
0.98
Burgos
0.98
Girona
1.00
Valladolid
1.02
Huesca
1.05
Eibar
1.07
Zaragoza
1.10
Las Palmas
1.12
Sporting Gijon
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Lugo
1.24
Ponferradina
1.31
Malaga
1.36
FC Cartagena
1.36
Ibiza
1.40
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Mirandes
1.48
Amorebieta
1.50
Fuenlabrada
1.55
Alcorcon
1.69
FC Cartagena is 0.12 goals worse than Lugo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Cartagena
For 4.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 15.4 · Total 29.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lugo
For 3.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.9 · Against 10.6 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Cartagena
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (47)
8.3
8.9
7.8
5.7
5.9
5.4
31.9
32.3
31.5
vs Stronger (27)
8.1
9.0
7.2
5.6
5.8
5.4
31.9
32.5
31.4
vs Similar (20)
8.7
8.7
8.7
5.7
6.0
5.4
31.9
32.0
31.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
28%
26%
29%
89%
87%
92%
96%
100%
92%
% under line
72%
74%
71%
11%
13%
8%
4%
0%
8%
This opponent (Lugo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lugo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.1
8.7
5.0
5.1
4.8
27.3
27.9
26.5
vs Stronger (27)
8.7
9.4
8.0
5.1
5.6
4.5
27.9
29.7
25.8
vs Similar (23)
9.1
8.7
9.5
4.8
4.4
5.3
26.6
25.8
27.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
46%
46%
78%
77%
79%
92%
88%
96%
% under line
54%
54%
54%
22%
23%
21%
8%
12%
4%
This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ibiza
10.2
Eibar
9.3
Almeria
9.3
Zaragoza
9.0
Fuenlabrada
9.0
Lugo
8.9
Tenerife
8.9
Mirandes
8.9
Amorebieta
8.8
Valladolid
8.6
Girona
8.4
Ponferradina
8.4
FC Cartagena
8.3
Huesca
8.2
Oviedo
8.1
Leganes
8.1
Sporting Gijon
8.0
Alcorcon
7.8
Malaga
7.7
Las Palmas
7.7
Real Sociedad II
7.4
Burgos
6.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fuenlabrada
6.0
FC Cartagena
5.7
Oviedo
5.6
Almeria
5.6
Girona
5.5
Las Palmas
5.4
Tenerife
5.3
Malaga
5.1
Valladolid
5.0
Lugo
5.0
Leganes
4.8
Ponferradina
4.8
Alcorcon
4.6
Zaragoza
4.5
Mirandes
4.4
Sporting Gijon
3.9
Huesca
3.7
Eibar
3.6
Amorebieta
3.4
Burgos
3.0
Real Sociedad II
2.8
Ibiza
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fuenlabrada
32.1
FC Cartagena
31.9
Las Palmas
31.8
Tenerife
30.8
Leganes
29.9
Malaga
29.9
Girona
29.7
Almeria
29.1
Oviedo
28.6
Huesca
28.2
Alcorcon
28.2
Valladolid
27.9
Zaragoza
27.6
Ponferradina
27.5
Lugo
27.3
Ibiza
27.2
Mirandes
27.2
Sporting Gijon
25.4
Amorebieta
25.0
Eibar
24.2
Real Sociedad II
24.0
Burgos
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
33.4%
Under 9.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
72.6%
Under 3.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.7%
Under 21.5
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Cartagena
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.57
0.47
0.40
0.07
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.50
0.44
0.44
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (14)
0.21
0.64
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lugo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lugo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.31
0.38
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.69
0.33
0.17
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.64
0.30
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Cartagena over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Cartagena
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.73
0.67
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.43
0.29
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.79
0.33
0.67
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lugo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lugo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.62
0.56
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
1.12
0.17
0.83
0.30
1.30
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.36
0.90
0.40
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Cartagena over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Cartagena · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Millán32%
Luis Muñoz18%
Daniel Luna18%
Nacho Martínez14%
Salim El Jebari12%
Gaston Valles11%
Pocho Román10%
Cedric Teguia9%
Andy Rodríguez8%
José Machín8%
Rafael Núñez7%
Jairo Izquierdo5%
Martín Aguirregabiria3%
Alfredo Ortuño3%
Sergio Guerrero3%
Andrija Vukčević0%
Nikola Šipčić0%
Julián Delmás0%
Dani Escriche0%
Kiko Olivas0%
Pedro Alcalá0%
Damián Musto0%
José Antonio Ríos0%
Hugo González0%
Toni Fuidias0%
Óscar Clemente0%
Jorge Moreno0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Carmelo Sánchez0%
Pablo Cuñat0%
Jesús Hernández0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jesús Hernández60%
Damián Musto50%
Nacho Martínez36%
Sergio Guerrero32%
José Machín31%
Martín Aguirregabiria28%
Andrija Vukčević26%
Dani Escriche22%
Jorge Moreno20%
Pocho Román19%
Pedro Alcalá19%
Luis Muñoz18%
Assane Ndiaye Dione12%
Salim El Jebari12%
Daniel Luna12%
Andy Rodríguez11%
Kiko Olivas10%
Nikola Šipčić9%
Jairo Izquierdo9%
Julián Delmás7%
Alfredo Ortuño5%
Pablo Cuñat5%
José Antonio Ríos5%
Cedric Teguia5%
Gaston Valles4%
Hugo González0%
Rafael Núñez0%
Toni Fuidias0%
Óscar Clemente0%
Álex Millán0%
Carmelo Sánchez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nacho Martínez21%
Jairo Izquierdo14%
Salim El Jebari12%
Luis Muñoz9%
Dani Escriche8%
Rafael Núñez7%
Daniel Luna6%
Óscar Clemente6%
José Antonio Ríos5%
Cedric Teguia5%
Martín Aguirregabiria3%
Andy Rodríguez3%
José Machín0%
Andrija Vukčević0%
Nikola Šipčić0%
Alfredo Ortuño0%
Julián Delmás0%
Kiko Olivas0%
Pedro Alcalá0%
Damián Musto0%
Hugo González0%
Toni Fuidias0%
Álex Millán0%
Jorge Moreno0%
Sergio Guerrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Carmelo Sánchez0%
Pablo Cuñat0%
Pocho Román0%
Gaston Valles0%
Jesús Hernández0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cedric Teguia14%
Gaston Valles11%
Álex Millán11%
Luis Muñoz9%
José Machín8%
Dani Escriche5%
Hugo González5%
Andy Rodríguez3%
Andrija Vukčević0%
Nikola Šipčić0%
Jairo Izquierdo0%
Alfredo Ortuño0%
Julián Delmás0%
Martín Aguirregabiria0%
Nacho Martínez0%
Kiko Olivas0%
Pedro Alcalá0%
Damián Musto0%
José Antonio Ríos0%
Rafael Núñez0%
Toni Fuidias0%
Óscar Clemente0%
Jorge Moreno0%
Sergio Guerrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Carmelo Sánchez0%
Pablo Cuñat0%
Daniel Luna0%
Salim El Jebari0%
Pocho Román0%
Jesús Hernández0%
Lugo · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Ramos25%
Sebas Moyano12%
Alberto Rodríguez8%
Manu Barreiro6%
Javier Avilés6%
Xavi Torres6%
Josep Señé6%
Jaume Cuéllar5%
Juanpe4%
Ángel Baena3%
Miguel Loureiro2%
Marko Šćepović0%
El Hacen0%
Bruno Pirri0%
Óscar Whalley0%
Aleksandar Pantić0%
Álex Pérez0%
Andoni López0%
Neyder Lozano0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Jordi Calavera0%
Pablo Clavería0%
Marc Carbo0%
Jose Ricardo0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
Idrissa Thiam0%
Dani Vidal0%
Cesar Rodriguez0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Gui0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Castrín0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neyder Lozano56%
Patrick Sequeira50%
Jose Ricardo40%
Bruno Pirri38%
Aleksandar Pantić30%
Juanpe26%
Miguel Loureiro25%
Cesar Rodriguez25%
Xavi Torres24%
Pablo Clavería24%
Gui23%
El Hacen19%
Josep Señé18%
Jaume Cuéllar16%
Jordi Calavera15%
Castrín14%
Alberto Rodríguez14%
Andoni López12%
Chris Ramos12%
Marc Carbo10%
Manu Barreiro9%
Javier Avilés6%
Ángel Baena3%
Óscar Whalley3%
Sebas Moyano2%
Marko Šćepović0%
Álex Pérez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Idrissa Thiam0%
Dani Vidal0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Idrissa Thiam17%
Jaume Cuéllar11%
Jose Ricardo10%
Juanpe9%
Gui8%
Manu Barreiro6%
Ángel Baena6%
Pablo Clavería3%
Miguel Loureiro2%
Marko Šćepović0%
El Hacen0%
Bruno Pirri0%
Óscar Whalley0%
Aleksandar Pantić0%
Álex Pérez0%
Andoni López0%
Neyder Lozano0%
Xavi Torres0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Jordi Calavera0%
Javier Avilés0%
Chris Ramos0%
Josep Señé0%
Sebas Moyano0%
Marc Carbo0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
Alberto Rodríguez0%
Dani Vidal0%
Cesar Rodriguez0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Castrín0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Chris Ramos46%
Sebas Moyano15%
Javier Avilés12%
Juanpe9%
Manu Barreiro6%
Pablo Clavería3%
Ángel Baena3%
Marko Šćepović0%
El Hacen0%
Bruno Pirri0%
Óscar Whalley0%
Aleksandar Pantić0%
Álex Pérez0%
Andoni López0%
Neyder Lozano0%
Xavi Torres0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Miguel Loureiro0%
Jordi Calavera0%
Josep Señé0%
Marc Carbo0%
Jose Ricardo0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
Alberto Rodríguez0%
Idrissa Thiam0%
Dani Vidal0%
Cesar Rodriguez0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Jaume Cuéllar0%
Gui0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Castrín0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →