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FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Orsha Result & Analysis

Date: 17/11/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Vs
76%
16%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Dnepr Mogilev win✗ Miss
75.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orsha win✓ Hit
8.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W31W21W01L12L00D21W31W31W00DA·GOM06/09H·VOL13/09A·OST20/09H·MIN27/09A·LID05/10H·LOK11/10A·SLO18/10H·BEL25/10H·BUM08/11A·DIN13/11
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.971.800.671.731.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.591.001.500.831.701.20
vs Weaker (8)2.250.883.000.001.801.40
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L03L14L12L03L02L02L13L04L32WA·LOK05/09H·UNI13/09A·SLO19/09H·ABF27/09A·BEL05/10H·BAR11/10A·DIN18/10H·GOM26/10A·BUM02/11H·VOL09/11
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.771.252.381.143.21
vs Stronger (14)1.142.791.382.250.833.50
vs Similar (16)1.252.751.122.501.383.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.5%
Under 2.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.1%
Under 3.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.5%
3-0
9.4%
2-1
8.9%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.3%
1-0
7.2%
4-0
6.3%
4-1
5.4%
FC Dnepr Mogilev goals ↓
Orsha goals →
01234
03.6%1.8%1.1%0.3%0.1%
17.2%7.3%2.8%0.8%0.2%
211%8.9%3.8%1.1%0.2%
39.4%8.0%3.4%1.0%0.2%
46.3%5.4%2.3%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Dnepr Mogilev goals (down), columns = Orsha goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Baranovichi
2.18
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.97
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.88
Belshina
1.85
Lida
1.74
Bumprom
1.74
Niva
1.62
BATE II
1.56
Minsk II
1.50
Ostrovets FC
1.50
Volna
1.41
ABFF U19
1.24
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Uni Minsk
1.06
Gomel II
0.82
Orsha
0.74
Osipovichy
0.64
Slonim
0.61
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 1.24 points better than Orsha in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 0.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Baranovichi
2.21
Lida
2.18
BATE II
2.06
Niva
2.00
Volna
1.91
Belshina
1.88
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.74
Ostrovets FC
1.65
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.65
Bumprom
1.65
Uni Minsk
1.59
Minsk II
1.44
ABFF U19
1.29
Orsha
1.24
Osipovichy
1.18
Gomel II
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
1.00
Slonim
0.91
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 0.50 goals better than Orsha in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.24).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Baranovichi
0.85
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Bumprom
1.06
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Belshina
1.18
Lida
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.41
ABFF U19
1.44
BATE II
1.53
Volna
1.62
Niva
1.65
Uni Minsk
2.12
Slonim
2.33
Osipovichy
2.33
Gomel II
2.44
Orsha
2.74
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 1.65 goals better than Orsha in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 2.74).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W10W00D01L00D20W21W30W00DA·GOM06/09H·VOL13/09A·OST20/09H·MIN27/09A·LID05/10H·LOK11/10A·SLO18/10H·BEL25/10H·BUM08/11A·DIN13/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.500.730.330.800.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.770.500.750.420.800.60
vs Weaker (8)0.750.500.670.000.800.80
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D03L11D01L01L02L12L01L11DA·LOK05/09H·UNI13/09A·SLO19/09H·ABF27/09A·BEL05/10H·BAR11/10A·DIN18/10H·GOM26/10A·BUM02/11H·VOL09/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.230.501.120.501.36
vs Stronger (14)0.641.000.750.880.501.17
vs Similar (16)0.381.440.251.380.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W21W11D01L11D00D01L10W01L00DA·GOM06/09H·VOL13/09A·OST20/09H·MIN27/09A·LID05/10H·LOK11/10A·SLO18/10H·BEL25/10H·BUM08/11A·DIN13/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.471.070.330.930.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.820.500.750.420.900.60
vs Weaker (8)1.500.382.330.001.000.60
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L03L11D01L02L01L00D01L03L21WA·LOK05/09H·UNI13/09A·SLO19/09H·ABF27/09A·BEL05/10H·BAR11/10A·DIN18/10H·GOM26/10A·BUM02/11H·VOL09/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.530.751.250.641.86
vs Stronger (14)0.501.790.621.380.332.33
vs Similar (16)0.881.310.881.120.881.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.4%-------✓ Hit
Home win75.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (25)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
UM (29)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
FC Dnepr Mogilev's squad is €2m more valuable than Orsha's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
FC Dnepr Mogilev's attack is €1m more valuable than Orsha's (€1m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (6)
€1m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
BAR (4)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
FC Dnepr Mogilev and Orsha have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (10)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
FC Dnepr Mogilev and Orsha have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
FDM wins
1
Draws
0
ORS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Orsha · H/A from FDM
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/25AOrsha Vs FDM1-2
12/08/23AOrsha Vs FDM1-1
02/04/23HFDM Vs Orsha3-1

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/25ADinamo Minsk II Vs FDM0-0
08/11/25HFDM Vs Bumprom3-1
25/10/25HFDM Vs Belshina3-1
18/10/25ASlonim Vs FDM1-2
11/10/25HFDM Vs Lokomotiv Gomel0-0
05/10/25ALida Vs FDM2-1
27/09/25HFDM Vs Minsk II0-1
20/09/25AOstrovets FC Vs FDM1-2
13/09/25HFDM Vs Volna3-1
06/09/25AGomel II Vs FDM2-3

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25HORS Vs Volna3-2
02/11/25ABumprom Vs ORS4-0
26/10/25HORS Vs Gomel II1-3
18/10/25ADinamo Minsk II Vs ORS2-0
11/10/25HORS Vs Baranovichi0-2
05/10/25ABelshina Vs ORS3-0
27/09/25HORS Vs ABFF U191-2
19/09/25ASlonim Vs ORS4-1
13/09/25HORS Vs Uni Minsk0-3
05/09/25ALokomotiv Gomel Vs ORS4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWD1.56
HomeWLDWW1.58
AwayWWLWD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%46%42%
AVG goals2.962.883.04
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %64%62%67%
Over 3.5 %30%31%29%
Scored1.561.581.54
Conceded1.401.311.50
BTTS66%58%75%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards3.183.113.25
Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.84
HomeLLLLW0.80
AwayLLLLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%20%24%
AVG goals3.743.324.16
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %50%40%60%
Scored1.281.201.36
Conceded2.462.122.80
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet12%8%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BaranovichiBaranovichi3474
68%
2.2
7529+46
3.1
85%
56%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3467
59%
2.0
5937+22
2.8
85%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.1
-
3Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3464
53%
1.9
5634+22
2.6
68%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
4BelshinaBelshina3463
56%
1.9
6440+24
3.1
85%
62%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.2
-
5LidaLida3459
56%
1.7
7444+30
3.5
85%
76%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0102.21.3
-
6BumpromBumprom3459
47%
1.7
5636+20
2.7
85%
44%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.1
-
7NivaNiva3455
44%
1.6
6856+12
3.6
85%
68%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.01.6
-
8BATE IIBATE II3453
44%
1.6
7052+18
3.6
88%
65%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.5
-
9Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3451
47%
1.5
5648+8
3.1
82%
62%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.4
-
10Minsk IIMinsk II3451
44%
1.5
4947+2
2.8
68%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.4
-
11VolnaVolna3448
38%
1.4
6555+10
3.5
91%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.6
-
12ABFF U19ABFF U193442
32%
1.2
4449-5
2.7
76%
56%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
13Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II3440
29%
1.2
3440-6
2.2
65%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.01.2
-
14Uni MinskUni Minsk3436
29%
1.1
5472-18
3.7
94%
76%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.62.1
-
15Gomel IIGomel II3428
24%
0.8
3483-49
3.4
79%
68%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.4
-
16OrshaOrsha3425
21%
0.7
4293-51
4.0
94%
79%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.7
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy3321
15%
0.6
3977-38
3.5
97%
70%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.3
-
18SlonimSlonim3320
18%
0.6
3077-47
3.2
91%
70%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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