FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk are favoured to win at home, a 57% chance that the match ends with the home side on top. The game is expected to see a little over three goals, with the most likely total being two, a 23% probability. The single score that the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 10.9% chance. Energetik-Bgu Minsk have been prolific at home, averaging 3.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition, while Orsha, playing away against a stronger side, have struggled, scoring just 0.67 and conceding 3.17 on average. The model’s selections include an Under 7.5 with 98.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4%, Under 6.5 at 96.1%, Home +2 handicap at 92.3%, Under 5.5 at 90.6%, Away under 2.5 goals at 89.9%, Home over 0.5 goals at 86.4% and Home under 3.5 goals at 85.8%. The probabilities for the match outcomes are 57% home win, 23% draw and 20% away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win
55.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orsha win
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.47
1.36
1.07
1.00
1.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
1.45
0.91
0.82
0.91
2.09
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
1.00
3.50
0.50
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orsha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.63
1.06
2.53
1.08
2.77
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
2.46
1.25
2.12
0.80
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.06
2.76
0.89
2.89
1.25
2.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.9%
Under 2.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.3%
No
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.7%
1-0
7.9%
3-1
6.5%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk goals ↓
Orsha goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
4.1%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.9%
11%
5.7%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.9%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.7%
6.5%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.8%
3.2%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk goals (down), columns = Orsha goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk is 0.25 points worse than Orsha in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk is 0.39 goals worse than Orsha in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk is 0.45 goals better than Orsha in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or Draw
79.5%
Avg Implied -
56%
24%
20%
covers FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or Orsha
76.3%
Avg Implied -
56%
24%
20%
covers FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk + Orsha
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Orsha
44.2%
Avg Implied -
56%
24%
20%
covers Draw + Orsha
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5
Over
86.0%
Under
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5
Over
58.5%
Under
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 3.5
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5
Over
67.7%
Under
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk, so a minus line means FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk give that many goals of a start and Orsha receive them. At -1, FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk)
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk -2
16.3%
Draw -2
17.3%
Orsha +2
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk)
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk -1
33.6%
Draw -1
22.2%
Orsha +1
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk)
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk +1
79.5%
Draw +1
12.3%
Orsha -1
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk)
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk +2
91.9%
Draw +2
5.7%
Orsha -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.43
0.43
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.23
0.55
0.18
0.27
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orsha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.20
0.47
1.06
0.54
1.38
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.00
0.75
0.88
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.41
1.35
0.22
1.22
0.62
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.93
0.64
0.62
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.91
0.73
0.55
0.64
1.27
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.67
2.00
0.50
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orsha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.43
0.59
1.47
0.54
1.38
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.46
0.50
1.25
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (17)
0.65
1.41
0.67
1.67
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II