The contest between FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk and Smorgon is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds for a draw or an away victory are not far behind. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7% chance. Energetik-Bgu Minsk, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 0.91 goals scored and 0.82 conceded, while Smorgon, on the road, averages 0.89 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. The model’s selection list is dominated by low-goal totals: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 5.5 (95.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Under 4.5 (87.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.0%) and Home +2 handicap (85.5%). The probabilities for the match outcome are 39% for a home win, 29% for a draw and 33% for an away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smorgon win
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.47
1.36
1.07
1.00
1.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
1.45
0.91
0.82
0.91
2.09
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
1.00
3.50
0.50
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smorgon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.27
0.88
0.88
1.00
1.77
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.12
0.60
1.40
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.45
0.91
0.73
0.89
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
8.6%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
5.6%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk goals ↓
Smorgon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
7.8%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
1
8.8%
14%
7.7%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.9%
8.6%
5.3%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.2%
3.9%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk goals (down), columns = Smorgon goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.75
Niva
2.62
Lida
2.14
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Minsk II
1.62
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
BATE II
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk is 0.29 points worse than Smorgon in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.25
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.50
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.88
Volna
1.75
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
BATE II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk is 0.29 goals worse than Smorgon in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.38
Uni Minsk
0.57
FC Slutsk
1.00
Smorgon
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Niva
1.38
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.12
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk is 0.14 goals worse than Smorgon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or Draw
67.4%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
33%
covers FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or Smorgon
71.3%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
33%
covers FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk + Smorgon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Smorgon
61.3%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
33%
covers Draw + Smorgon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5
Over
74.7%
Under
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5
Over
39.9%
Under
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 0.5
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk, so a minus line means FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk give that many goals of a start and Smorgon receive them. At -1, FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk)
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk -2
6.8%
Draw -2
11.8%
Smorgon +2
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk)
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk -1
18.5%
Draw -1
20.2%
Smorgon +1
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk)
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk +1
67.4%
Draw +1
18.1%
Smorgon -1
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk)
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk +2
85.6%
Draw +2
9.6%
Smorgon -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.43
0.43
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.23
0.55
0.18
0.27
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smorgon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.31
0.85
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.75
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.70
0.55
0.45
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.0%
Under 0.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.3%
Under 1.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.8%
Under 2.5
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.93
0.64
0.62
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.91
0.73
0.55
0.64
1.27
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.67
2.00
0.50
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smorgon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.41
0.35
0.69
0.92
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.38
0.20
0.60
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.75
0.36
0.27
0.56
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.3%
Under 0.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.7%
Under 1.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.4%
Under 2.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Volna
Dinamo Minsk II
BATE II
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II