This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.07
0.87
1.33
1.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
5.00
-
-
1.50
5.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
1.12
0.93
0.86
1.33
1.42
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.9%
Under 2.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.5%
Under 3.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.4%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
6.0%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
5.7%
FC Lugano goals ↓
FC Luzern goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
4.7%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
1
8.1%
12%
6.1%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.2%
6.0%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.4%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Lugano goals (down), columns = FC Luzern goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Basel 1893
1.92
Servette FC
1.66
BSC Young Boys
1.61
FC Aarau
1.50
FC Lugano
1.42
FC Zurich
1.39
Lausanne
1.39
FC ST. Gallen
1.37
FC Luzern
1.37
FC Sion
1.16
FC Winterthur
1.05
Grasshoppers
1.05
Yverdon Sport
1.03
FC Lugano is 0.05 points better than FC Luzern in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Basel 1893
2.39
FC Luzern
1.74
Servette FC
1.68
Lausanne
1.63
BSC Young Boys
1.58
FC Zurich
1.47
FC Lugano
1.45
FC ST. Gallen
1.37
FC Sion
1.24
Grasshoppers
1.18
FC Winterthur
1.13
Yverdon Sport
1.05
FC Aarau
0.50
FC Lugano is 0.29 goals worse than FC Luzern in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Basel 1893
1.13
BSC Young Boys
1.29
Grasshoppers
1.35
FC ST. Gallen
1.39
Lausanne
1.42
Servette FC
1.45
FC Zurich
1.50
FC Sion
1.50
FC Lugano
1.53
FC Luzern
1.68
FC Winterthur
1.79
Yverdon Sport
1.79
FC Aarau
2.00
FC Lugano is 0.16 goals better than FC Luzern in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Lugano
60%
FC Zurich
55%
FC Basel 1893
54%
BSC Young Boys
52%
FC ST. Gallen
50%
Servette FC
50%
Lausanne
48%
FC Luzern
48%
FC Sion
47%
Grasshoppers
46%
FC Winterthur
45%
Yverdon Sport
44%
FC Lugano is 11.9 percentage points better than FC Luzern in terms of average possession (60% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Lugano
For 5.0 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Luzern
For 6.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 11.5 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Lugano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.7
8.6
4.9
4.8
5.0
23.1
22.9
23.4
vs Stronger (8)
7.9
8.3
7.5
5.4
5.8
5.0
22.2
18.2
26.2
vs Similar (32)
8.6
8.8
8.5
4.8
4.6
5.0
24.1
24.6
23.5
vs Weaker (10)
9.2
8.6
9.8
4.9
4.6
5.2
21.0
21.2
20.8
% over line
29%
29%
29%
68%
64%
72%
67%
64%
71%
% under line
71%
71%
71%
32%
36%
28%
33%
36%
29%
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.5
10.6
5.0
5.4
4.6
24.3
24.6
24.0
vs Stronger (3)
14.7
16.0
14.0
4.7
7.0
3.5
27.0
28.0
26.5
vs Similar (44)
10.4
10.4
10.3
5.0
5.3
4.6
23.9
24.5
23.2
vs Weaker (3)
9.3
8.0
10.0
6.0
7.0
5.5
27.7
23.0
30.0
% over line
60%
58%
62%
72%
77%
67%
72%
69%
75%
% under line
40%
42%
38%
28%
23%
33%
28%
31%
25%
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC ST. Gallen
11.1
BSC Young Boys
10.8
Yverdon Sport
10.7
FC Sion
10.7
FC Luzern
10.6
FC Basel 1893
10.4
Servette FC
10.1
Lausanne
9.9
Grasshoppers
9.7
FC Winterthur
9.7
FC Zurich
9.3
FC Lugano
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Sion
5.8
FC Basel 1893
5.7
FC Winterthur
5.3
FC ST. Gallen
5.3
Lausanne
5.2
FC Lugano
5.1
FC Luzern
5.0
Yverdon Sport
4.9
FC Zurich
4.9
Grasshoppers
4.5
BSC Young Boys
4.4
Servette FC
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Yverdon Sport
26.5
FC Basel 1893
25.0
BSC Young Boys
24.6
FC ST. Gallen
24.6
FC Luzern
24.3
Lausanne
24.2
FC Zurich
23.9
FC Winterthur
23.8
Grasshoppers
23.5
Servette FC
23.3
FC Lugano
23.1
FC Sion
22.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.1%
Under 9.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.7%
Under 3.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.9%
Under 21.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Lugano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.56
0.69
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.47
0.67
0.44
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.62
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.27
0.53
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
-
-
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.31
0.46
0.21
0.57
0.42
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Lugano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.73
1.19
0.75
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.05
0.58
1.00
0.67
1.10
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.62
1.60
0.40
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.80
0.33
0.73
1.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.65
0.71
0.29
0.92
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Lugano
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Georgios Koutsias27%
Ignacio Aliseda26%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud23%
Anto Grgić20%
Renato Steffen18%
Shkelqim Vladi15%
Kacper Przybyłko13%
Mattia Bottani11%
Uran Bislimi8%
Martim Marques7%
Hicham Mahou7%
Albian Hajdari5%
Daniel Dos Santos Correia5%
Ayman El Wafi5%
Yanis Cimignani5%
Antonios Papadopoulos5%
Ousmane Doumbia5%
Milton Valenzuela3%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Roman Macek0%
Allan Arigoni0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Zachary Brault Guillard0%
Amir Saipi0%
Mattia Zanotti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastian Osigwe40%
Albian Hajdari37%
Mattia Zanotti31%
Mattia Bottani29%
Uran Bislimi28%
Antonios Papadopoulos27%
Renato Steffen26%
Ousmane Doumbia20%
Lars Lukas Mai19%
Ayman El Wafi16%
Yanis Cimignani15%
Roman Macek15%
Martim Marques14%
Zachary Brault Guillard14%
Georgios Koutsias14%
Milton Valenzuela13%
Anto Grgić13%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud11%
Kacper Przybyłko10%
Amir Saipi9%
Daniel Dos Santos Correia8%
Hicham Mahou7%
Ignacio Aliseda4%
Shkelqim Vladi4%
Allan Arigoni0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mattia Zanotti20%
Renato Steffen18%
Milton Valenzuela13%
Shkelqim Vladi11%
Anto Grgić11%
Yanis Cimignani10%
Uran Bislimi10%
Ignacio Aliseda9%
Hicham Mahou7%
Kacper Przybyłko6%
Daniel Dos Santos Correia5%
Roman Macek5%
Zachary Brault Guillard5%
Georgios Koutsias5%
Mattia Bottani3%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud3%
Antonios Papadopoulos2%
Ousmane Doumbia2%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Allan Arigoni0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Amir Saipi0%
Albian Hajdari0%
Martim Marques0%
Ayman El Wafi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georgios Koutsias27%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud17%
Uran Bislimi10%
Renato Steffen9%
Ignacio Aliseda9%
Mattia Bottani9%
Daniel Dos Santos Correia8%
Yanis Cimignani8%
Shkelqim Vladi7%
Antonios Papadopoulos7%
Milton Valenzuela3%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Roman Macek0%
Anto Grgić0%
Allan Arigoni0%
Ousmane Doumbia0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Kacper Przybyłko0%
Zachary Brault Guillard0%
Amir Saipi0%
Hicham Mahou0%
Albian Hajdari0%
Mattia Zanotti0%
Martim Marques0%
Ayman El Wafi0%
FC Luzern
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Donat Rrudhani27%
Adrian Grbić23%
Thibault Klidje22%
Luca Jaquez16%
Levin Winkler14%
Sinan Karweina14%
Lars Villiger13%
Kevin Spadanuda11%
Pius Dorn8%
Aleksandar Stanković8%
Stefan Knežević6%
Nicky Beloko5%
Bung Meng Freimann5%
Jakub Kadák4%
Severin Ottiger3%
Tyron Owusu3%
Andrejs Cigaņiks3%
Jesper Lofgren0%
Ismajl Beka0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ismajl Beka100%
Stefan Knežević36%
Nicky Beloko20%
Jesper Lofgren20%
Donat Rrudhani20%
Andrejs Cigaņiks17%
Pius Dorn16%
Severin Ottiger13%
Jakub Kadák13%
Levin Winkler11%
Bung Meng Freimann10%
Adrian Grbić10%
Aleksandar Stanković8%
Lars Villiger8%
Tyron Owusu6%
Kevin Spadanuda6%
Pascal Loretz5%
Luca Jaquez5%
Sinan Karweina5%
Dario Ulrich0%
Thibault Klidje0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bung Hua Freimann33%
Donat Rrudhani20%
Pius Dorn19%
Lars Villiger13%
Andrejs Cigaņiks11%
Kevin Spadanuda11%
Levin Winkler11%
Severin Ottiger10%
Sinan Karweina9%
Jakub Kadák9%
Thibault Klidje8%
Aleksandar Stanković5%
Nicky Beloko5%
Adrian Grbić3%
Tyron Owusu3%
Jesper Lofgren0%
Stefan Knežević0%
Ismajl Beka0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Luca Jaquez0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Bung Meng Freimann0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thibault Klidje38%
Adrian Grbić16%
Sinan Karweina14%
Donat Rrudhani10%
Kevin Spadanuda6%
Aleksandar Stanković5%
Luca Jaquez5%
Lars Villiger5%
Andrejs Cigaņiks3%
Pius Dorn0%
Nicky Beloko0%
Jesper Lofgren0%
Stefan Knežević0%
Ismajl Beka0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Jakub Kadák0%
Tyron Owusu0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Severin Ottiger0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Levin Winkler0%
Bung Meng Freimann0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FW (25)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
FC Lugano's squad is €13m more valuable than FC Luzern's (€39m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
FC Lugano's attack is €7m less valuable than FC Luzern's (€8m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FW (7)
€2m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
FC Lugano's midfield is €4m more valuable than FC Luzern's (€7m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FA (13)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
FC Lugano's defence is €16m more valuable than FC Luzern's (€24m vs €8m).
Switzerland: Super League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
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FC Basel 1893
Servette FC
BSC Young Boys
Lausanne
FC Zurich
FC ST. Gallen
FC Sion
Grasshoppers
FC Winterthur
Yverdon Sport
FC Aarau