This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.36
1.79
1.14
2.00
1.57
1.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.83
1.14
2.00
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
-
-
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
21% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.6%
Under 2.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.2%
Under 3.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
7.2%
0-1
7.1%
0-2
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
1-3
5.3%
FC Luzern goals ↓
FC Lugano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
7.1%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
1
5.3%
12%
9.3%
5.3%
2.3%
2
4.2%
7.2%
6.2%
3.5%
1.5%
3
1.9%
3.2%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Luzern goals (down), columns = FC Lugano goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.06
Servette FC
1.61
FC Lugano
1.58
FC Luzern
1.39
FC Basel 1893
1.31
FC ST. Gallen
1.25
Grasshoppers
1.22
FC Zurich
1.22
FC Winterthur
0.89
FC Sion
0.82
FC Luzern is 0.19 points worse than FC Lugano in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.28
FC ST. Gallen
1.83
FC Lugano
1.64
Grasshoppers
1.56
FC Luzern
1.50
Servette FC
1.47
FC Basel 1893
1.42
FC Zurich
1.14
FC Sion
1.13
FC Winterthur
0.89
FC Luzern is 0.14 goals worse than FC Lugano in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
BSC Young Boys
0.83
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.00
Servette FC
1.28
FC Lugano
1.31
FC Basel 1893
1.39
FC ST. Gallen
1.44
FC Luzern
1.44
FC Zurich
1.53
Grasshoppers
1.78
FC Winterthur
1.83
FC Sion
2.08
FC Luzern is 0.14 goals worse than FC Lugano in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
BSC Young Boys
57%
FC Lugano
54%
FC Basel 1893
54%
FC ST. Gallen
53%
Servette FC
50%
FC Luzern
49%
FC Zurich
48%
FC Sion
48%
Grasshoppers
46%
FC Winterthur
41%
FC Luzern is 5.0 percentage points worse than FC Lugano in terms of average possession (49% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Luzern
For 5.1 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Lugano
For 4.4 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 13.1 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Luzern
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
10.9
13.6
8.7
5.2
7.0
3.7
22.5
21.2
23.7
vs Stronger (1)
19.0
19.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
23.0
23.0
-
vs Similar (9)
10.6
12.2
9.2
5.4
7.5
3.8
22.6
20.8
24.0
vs Weaker (1)
6.0
-
6.0
3.0
-
3.0
22.0
-
22.0
% over line
55%
80%
33%
73%
100%
50%
82%
60%
100%
% under line
45%
20%
67%
27%
0%
50%
18%
40%
0%
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
9.0
9.0
9.0
4.8
4.6
5.0
25.1
25.4
24.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
9.1
9.0
9.2
5.1
4.6
5.8
25.8
25.4
26.4
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
-
8.5
3.0
-
3.0
21.0
-
21.0
% over line
43%
29%
57%
86%
86%
86%
86%
86%
86%
% under line
57%
71%
43%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Grasshoppers
12.1
FC Sion
11.4
FC Luzern
10.9
FC Basel 1893
10.2
Servette FC
9.9
FC ST. Gallen
9.4
BSC Young Boys
9.2
FC Lugano
9.0
FC Winterthur
8.9
FC Zurich
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Basel 1893
6.5
FC ST. Gallen
6.0
FC Zurich
5.5
FC Winterthur
5.3
FC Sion
5.2
FC Luzern
5.2
Grasshoppers
5.1
Servette FC
5.1
FC Lugano
4.8
BSC Young Boys
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Lugano
25.1
FC Zurich
25.1
BSC Young Boys
24.2
FC ST. Gallen
24.1
Grasshoppers
24.0
FC Sion
23.9
FC Basel 1893
23.8
FC Luzern
22.5
FC Winterthur
22.5
Servette FC
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.7%
Under 9.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.1%
Under 3.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.1%
Under 21.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Luzern
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.20
1.00
0.83
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.78
1.25
1.00
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
36% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.83
0.57
0.86
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
29% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Luzern
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.55
0.73
0.20
0.60
0.83
0.83
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.78
0.25
0.50
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
45% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
0.93
0.57
1.14
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.00
0.57
1.14
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Luzern
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Max Meyer31%
Dejan Sorgić26%
Sofyan Chader19%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka17%
Pascal Schürpf17%
Luuk Breedijk17%
Marco Burch12%
Asumah Abubakar11%
Martin Frýdek10%
Christian Gentner10%
Jakub Kadák10%
Vars Villiger9%
Pius Dorn9%
Nicky Medja Beloko7%
Mohamed Dräger6%
Ismajl Beka5%
Ardon Jashari3%
Marius Müller0%
Vaso Vasic0%
Ibrahima Ndiaye0%
Samuele Campo0%
Varol Tasar0%
Denis Simani0%
Joaquín Ardaiz0%
Thibault Klidje0%
Lorik Emini0%
Mamady Diambou0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Severin Ottiger0%
Luca Jaquez0%
Leny Meyer0%
Nando Toggenburg0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicky Medja Beloko47%
Ismajl Beka41%
Denis Simani36%
Varol Tasar33%
Lorik Emini33%
Vars Villiger27%
Severin Ottiger25%
Max Meyer24%
Mohamed Dräger23%
Martin Frýdek21%
Marco Burch20%
Sofyan Chader19%
Marius Müller16%
Ardon Jashari15%
Pascal Schürpf13%
Pascal Loretz12%
Pius Dorn12%
Asumah Abubakar11%
Christian Gentner10%
Jakub Kadák10%
Luca Jaquez10%
Mamady Diambou8%
Thibault Klidje7%
Vaso Vasic0%
Ibrahima Ndiaye0%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Samuele Campo0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
Joaquín Ardaiz0%
Leny Meyer0%
Nando Toggenburg0%
Luuk Breedijk0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Varol Tasar33%
Pius Dorn18%
Martin Frýdek17%
Max Meyer14%
Pascal Schürpf13%
Christian Gentner10%
Sofyan Chader10%
Vars Villiger9%
Ardon Jashari9%
Severin Ottiger8%
Asumah Abubakar7%
Mohamed Dräger6%
Ismajl Beka5%
Marco Burch4%
Nicky Medja Beloko3%
Marius Müller0%
Vaso Vasic0%
Ibrahima Ndiaye0%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Samuele Campo0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
Denis Simani0%
Joaquín Ardaiz0%
Jakub Kadák0%
Thibault Klidje0%
Lorik Emini0%
Mamady Diambou0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Luca Jaquez0%
Leny Meyer0%
Nando Toggenburg0%
Luuk Breedijk0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jakub Kadák30%
Max Meyer28%
Pascal Schürpf23%
Sofyan Chader19%
Dejan Sorgić17%
Mohamed Dräger10%
Marco Burch8%
Thibault Klidje7%
Pius Dorn6%
Ardon Jashari6%
Ismajl Beka5%
Asumah Abubakar4%
Martin Frýdek3%
Marius Müller0%
Vaso Vasic0%
Ibrahima Ndiaye0%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Christian Gentner0%
Nicky Medja Beloko0%
Samuele Campo0%
Varol Tasar0%
Denis Simani0%
Joaquín Ardaiz0%
Lorik Emini0%
Mamady Diambou0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Severin Ottiger0%
Luca Jaquez0%
Leny Meyer0%
Nando Toggenburg0%
Luuk Breedijk0%
Vars Villiger0%
FC Lugano
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žan Celar45%
Ignacio Aliseda30%
Renato Steffen25%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura22%
Reto Ziegler18%
Jonathan Sabbatini8%
Ousmane Doumbia8%
Boris Babić7%
Uran Bislimi7%
Milton Valenzuela6%
Maren Haile-Selassie6%
Kreshnik Hajrizi5%
Hicham Mahou5%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud5%
Mattia Bottani4%
Allan Arigoni4%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Mickaël Facchinetti0%
Jhon Espinoza0%
Fabio Daprelà0%
Roman Macek0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Amir Saipi0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Albian Hajdari0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Allan Arigoni43%
Kreshnik Hajrizi42%
Albian Hajdari42%
Renato Steffen36%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud29%
Milton Valenzuela28%
Hicham Mahou20%
Fabio Daprelà19%
Amir Saipi13%
Jhon Espinoza12%
Mickaël Facchinetti11%
Jonathan Sabbatini11%
Ousmane Doumbia11%
Boris Babić11%
Roman Macek10%
Uran Bislimi10%
Žan Celar10%
Reto Ziegler9%
Mattia Bottani7%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura6%
Maren Haile-Selassie6%
Lars Lukas Mai5%
Ignacio Aliseda0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Renato Steffen21%
Roman Macek21%
Adrian Durrer20%
Maren Haile-Selassie18%
Jhon Espinoza12%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura12%
Allan Arigoni11%
Hicham Mahou10%
Milton Valenzuela9%
Reto Ziegler9%
Ignacio Aliseda9%
Žan Celar6%
Jonathan Sabbatini5%
Ousmane Doumbia5%
Mattia Bottani4%
Boris Babić4%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Mickaël Facchinetti0%
Fabio Daprelà0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud0%
Amir Saipi0%
Kreshnik Hajrizi0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Albian Hajdari0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Žan Celar35%
Renato Steffen14%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura12%
Maren Haile-Selassie12%
Mattia Bottani11%
Ignacio Aliseda9%
Jonathan Sabbatini8%
Ousmane Doumbia8%
Boris Babić4%
Milton Valenzuela3%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Mickaël Facchinetti0%
Jhon Espinoza0%
Fabio Daprelà0%
Roman Macek0%
Allan Arigoni0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Reto Ziegler0%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud0%
Amir Saipi0%
Hicham Mahou0%
Kreshnik Hajrizi0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Albian Hajdari0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FC Luzern's squad is €13m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€26m vs €39m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
FC Luzern's attack is €7m more valuable than FC Lugano's (€15m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FW (7)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
FC Luzern's midfield is €4m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€3m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
FC Luzern's defence is €16m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€8m vs €24m).
Switzerland: Super League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →