FC Luzern’s recent draw against Servette FC leaves them looking for a quick rebound, while FC Vaduz, fresh from a 5-2 win over Grasshoppers, carries high confidence into the away fixture. The model’s most probable outcome is a home win, with a 57% chance, followed by a 20% draw and a 22% chance for Vaduz. The expected total goals is 4.0, and the model predicts a 2-1 scoreline as the most likely result, with an 8.5% probability. Luzern, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.5 conceded, whereas Vaduz, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.5 scored and 2.75 conceded.
The model’s selections include: Away under 2.5 HT goals98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals97.0% (edge 4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals96.7% (edge 8%), Under 7.594.8%, Away under 3.5 goals92.9%, Over 1.591.7% (edge 7%), Home over 0.5 goals91.6% (edge 4%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals91.3% (edge 8%).
Results analysis
The win for FC Luzern extends their recent run, ending a sequence of wins, draws and losses with a 2-1 triumph over FC Vaduz. The model’s favourite was a Home win, given a 57% probability, and it proved correct as Luzern took the victory. The match also delivered on the model’s eight selections: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.3%, Under 7.5 at 94.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.9%, Over 1.5 at 91.6%, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.6% and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 91.5%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and every selection was settled as hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Luzern win✓ Hit
57.5%
Avg Implied 55.4% · @ 1.69
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.75
Superbet
1.71
Dafabet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
Betano
1.70
Draw✗ Miss
20.1%
Avg Implied 22.2% · @ 4.20
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.35
BetVictor
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
FC Vaduz win✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.17
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.39
1xBet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Luzern
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.77
2.00
2.07
1.67
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.96
1.76
2.25
2.00
1.69
1.54
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.67
1.00
2.50
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Vaduz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.50
2.21
1.50
1.75
1.50
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.50
2.75
vs Similar (24)
2.04
1.25
2.25
1.42
1.83
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.6%
@ 1.07+4.7%
Under 1.5
8.4%
@ 7.13-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Pinnacle
7.73
Superbet
7.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.4%
@ 1.31+5.0%
Under 2.5
23.6%
@ 3.27-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Under
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.32
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.9%
@ 1.80+4.8%
Under 3.5
43.1%
@ 1.97-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Unibet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
SBO
1.82
Under
SBO
2.02
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.6%
@ 1.35+3.8%
No
27.4%
@ 2.98-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.35
No
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.05
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
8.5%@ 8.38+3.0%
1-1
7.6%@ 9.21+2.6%
3-1
7.0%@ 10.73+2.7%
2-2
6.6%@ 10.76+2.3%
2-0
5.5%@ 11.93+1.7%
3-2
5.4%@ 13.87+2.1%
1-2
5.3%@ 13.32+1.8%
3-0
4.6%@ 15.21+1.5%
FC Luzern goals ↓
FC Vaduz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
2.1%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
1
3.8%
7.6%
5.3%
2.7%
1.0%
2
5.5%
8.5%
6.6%
3.4%
1.3%
3
4.6%
7.0%
5.4%
2.8%
1.1%
4
2.8%
4.4%
3.4%
1.7%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Luzern goals (down), columns = FC Vaduz goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Lugano
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.33
FC Sion
1.80
FC Basel 1893
1.67
FC Thun
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.40
FC Luzern
1.33
FC Zurich
1.00
Lausanne
1.00
Grasshoppers
0.80
Servette FC
0.80
FC Vaduz
0.50
FC Luzern is 0.83 points better than FC Vaduz in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BSC Young Boys
3.83
FC Lugano
2.80
FC Sion
2.20
FC Vaduz
2.17
FC ST. Gallen
2.00
FC Basel 1893
1.83
FC Thun
1.80
FC Zurich
1.50
Grasshoppers
1.40
FC Luzern
1.17
Lausanne
1.00
Servette FC
0.80
FC Luzern is 1.00 goals worse than FC Vaduz in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Lugano
0.60
Lausanne
1.17
Servette FC
1.20
FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Luzern
1.67
FC Sion
1.80
BSC Young Boys
1.83
FC ST. Gallen
2.20
Grasshoppers
2.40
FC Zurich
2.67
FC Vaduz
2.67
FC Thun
2.80
FC Luzern is 1.00 goals better than FC Vaduz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sion
57%
FC ST. Gallen
56%
FC Lugano
55%
FC Vaduz
53%
Servette FC
53%
Lausanne
51%
FC Basel 1893
49%
BSC Young Boys
49%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC Zurich
44%
FC Luzern
44%
FC Luzern is 9.7 percentage points worse than FC Vaduz in terms of average possession (44% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Luzern
For 6.6 · Against 4.7 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 9.4 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Vaduz
For 4.7 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Luzern
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.2
9.8
4.6
5.1
4.2
24.0
24.7
23.4
vs Stronger (5)
8.8
10.3
6.5
4.0
4.7
3.0
22.4
23.0
21.5
vs Similar (41)
10.9
11.4
10.4
4.7
5.2
4.2
24.4
24.9
23.8
vs Weaker (4)
9.0
10.5
7.5
5.0
5.5
4.5
22.8
24.5
21.0
% over line
56%
60%
52%
76%
84%
68%
66%
72%
60%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
24%
16%
32%
34%
28%
40%
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Vaduz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.0
10.0
0.8
0.6
0.9
23.0
24.0
22.2
vs Stronger (11)
10.2
10.0
10.2
2.5
2.2
2.8
21.7
20.5
22.2
vs Similar (39)
11.0
12.0
9.0
0.3
0.2
0.3
25.7
27.5
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
75%
60%
10%
4%
16%
78%
75%
80%
% under line
33%
25%
40%
90%
96%
84%
22%
25%
20%
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Zurich
10.7
Lausanne
10.6
FC ST. Gallen
10.6
FC Luzern
10.5
Servette FC
10.3
FC Thun
10.2
FC Basel 1893
10.2
FC Vaduz
10.0
Grasshoppers
9.8
FC Sion
9.4
BSC Young Boys
9.4
FC Lugano
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
5.9
Grasshoppers
5.2
Lausanne
5.0
FC Thun
5.0
FC Zurich
4.9
FC Basel 1893
4.8
FC Vaduz
4.8
FC Lugano
4.7
Servette FC
4.6
FC Luzern
4.6
FC Sion
4.5
BSC Young Boys
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
30.4
FC Thun
28.0
FC Zurich
27.5
FC Sion
26.5
FC Basel 1893
26.4
FC Lugano
25.4
Grasshoppers
25.1
Lausanne
24.6
FC Vaduz
24.4
FC Luzern
24.0
Servette FC
23.8
BSC Young Boys
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.5%
@ 1.36-4.0%
Under 9.5
36.5%
@ 2.82+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Under
Betano
3.20
Superbet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.81
Unibet
2.65
1xBet
2.55
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.1%
@ 1.34+3.1%
Under 3.5
29.9%
@ 2.72-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.34
Under
Superbet
2.72
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.3%
Under 21.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Luzern or Draw✓ Hit
77.6%
Avg Implied 77.3% · @ 1.21
Edge
+0.3%
57%
20%
22%
covers FC Luzern + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
FC Luzern or FC Vaduz✓ Hit
79.9%
Avg Implied 78.3% · @ 1.19
Edge
+1.6%
57%
20%
22%
covers FC Luzern + FC Vaduz
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw or FC Vaduz✗ Miss
42.5%
Avg Implied 44.4% · @ 2.10
Edge
-1.9%
57%
20%
22%
covers Draw + FC Vaduz
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.20
SBO
2.16
1xBet
2.14
Unibet
2.14
Betfair
2.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Luzern over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.6%
@ 1.06+3.7%
Under
8.4%
@ 7.70-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Under
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.90
1xBet
7.50
Betano
7.10
FC Luzern over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
70.8%
@ 1.40+4.0%
Under
29.2%
@ 2.81-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.89
1xBet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Superbet
2.85
FC Luzern over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
45.0%
@ 2.25+3.6%
Under
55.0%
@ 1.59-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.28
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
FC Luzern over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
23.7%
@ 4.17+1.5%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.20-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.33
10Bet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
FC Vaduz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.5%
@ 1.24+3.5%
Under
21.5%
@ 3.72-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
BetVictor
4.00
Pinnacle
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
FC Vaduz over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.5%
@ 2.18+2.6%
Under
54.5%
@ 1.64-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.26
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Under
Superbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
BetVictor
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.65
FC Vaduz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.1%
@ 4.73+0.5%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.16-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.30
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
1xBet
1.15
FC Vaduz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 10.50-2.0%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.04+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Luzern, so a minus line means FC Luzern give that many goals of a start and FC Vaduz receive them. At -1, FC Luzern must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Luzern win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Luzern)Actual: FC Vaduz
FC Luzern -2
20.8%
@ 4.52+1.0%
Draw -2
16.9%
@ 4.93-1.2%
FC Vaduz +2
62.3%
@ 1.44+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.05
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Away
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Handicap -1 (FC Luzern)Actual: Draw
FC Luzern -1
37.7%
@ 2.54+2.5%
Draw -1
19.8%
@ 3.97-2.7%
FC Vaduz +1
42.5%
@ 2.11+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Away
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Handicap +1 (FC Luzern)Actual: FC Luzern
FC Luzern +1
77.6%
@ 1.21+3.2%
Draw +1
12.0%
@ 6.31-2.2%
FC Vaduz -1
10.3%
@ 7.92-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Away
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Handicap +2 (FC Luzern)Actual: FC Luzern
FC Luzern +2
89.7%
@ 1.06+2.0%
Draw +2
6.5%
@ 12.50-0.9%
FC Vaduz -2
3.8%
@ 19.00-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Away
Betfair
19.00
Bet365
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Luzern
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.88
0.92
0.83
0.46
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Vaduz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.77
1.36
0.79
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
1.33
1.50
1.00
1.25
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.04
0.62
1.33
0.75
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.17-3.4%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 4.42+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
William Hil
4.60
Superbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.9%
@ 1.86-5.3%
Under 1.5
55.1%
@ 1.88+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.92
SBO
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Under
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.8%
@ 3.62-6.8%
Under 2.5
81.2%
@ 1.24+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
Superbet
3.60
Betano
3.60
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
57.4%
@ 1.45-6.8%
Under
42.6%
@ 2.60+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.62
1xBet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.3%
@ 3.12-9.3%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.31+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.26
Betano
3.20
1xBet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Under
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 7.67-8.4%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.05+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.30
Superbet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
FC Vaduz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.2%
@ 1.97-2.0%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.75+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Betano
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.74
FC Vaduz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 5.71-4.4%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.10+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
FC Vaduz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 16.08-4.1%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Luzern
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.90
1.13
1.20
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.28
0.88
1.33
1.17
1.23
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Vaduz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
0.86
0.71
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.50
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.62
0.92
0.67
1.08
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.3%
@ 1.10-2.0%
Under 0.5
16.7%
@ 6.38+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Under
1xBet
6.80
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Betano
6.20
William Hil
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.4%
@ 1.51-8.9%
Under 1.5
47.6%
@ 2.40+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.47
Superbet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.39
Bet365
2.38
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
24.6%
@ 2.54-12.0%
Under 2.5
75.4%
@ 1.47+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.53
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
William Hil
1.44
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
65.8%
@ 1.30-5.5%
Under
34.2%
@ 3.23+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betano
3.30
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.20
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
27.2%
@ 2.41-11.3%
Under
72.8%
@ 1.51+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 5.45-8.4%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.11+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
FC Vaduz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.6%
@ 1.67-5.8%
Under
50.4%
@ 2.07+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Under
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
FC Vaduz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.6%
@ 4.23-6.3%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.18+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
FC Vaduz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 10.75-5.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
-
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
94.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
91.6%
1.07
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
91.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.5%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
-
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
88.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.4%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.10
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.2%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.9%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
1xBet
1.15
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.9%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.7%
1.31
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
78.5%
1.24
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
78.3%
1.17
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.6%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.6%
1.21
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
76.4%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
76.3%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.6%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-3.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.4%
1.47
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
William Hil
1.44
+12.0%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.7%
1.21
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-0.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.8%
1.51
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
+11.3%
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
72.6%
1.35
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.35
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
70.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.40
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.1%
1.34
Superbet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Luzern
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Di Giusto33%
N. Toggenburger33%
Stefan Knežević25%
D. Mikołajewski25%
Andrejs Cigaņiks17%
K. Letica0%
S. Simoni0%
Pius Dorn0%
Leonardo Bertone0%
Tyron Owusu0%
Aurelio Oehlers0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Rúben Dantas0%
Sascha Meyer0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Mio Zimmermann0%
Lucas Silva0%
Sandro Wyss0%
Oscar Kabwit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andrejs Cigaņiks50%
Bung Hua Freimann40%
Leonardo Bertone33%
N. Toggenburger33%
Mio Zimmermann33%
D. Mikołajewski25%
Pius Dorn20%
Tyron Owusu20%
Lucas Silva17%
K. Letica0%
S. Simoni0%
Stefan Knežević0%
M. Di Giusto0%
Aurelio Oehlers0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Rúben Dantas0%
Sascha Meyer0%
Sandro Wyss0%
Oscar Kabwit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aurelio Oehlers33%
D. Mikołajewski25%
Oscar Kabwit20%
M. Di Giusto17%
K. Letica0%
S. Simoni0%
Pius Dorn0%
Andrejs Cigaņiks0%
Stefan Knežević0%
Leonardo Bertone0%
Tyron Owusu0%
N. Toggenburger0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Rúben Dantas0%
Sascha Meyer0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Mio Zimmermann0%
Lucas Silva0%
Sandro Wyss0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Mikołajewski50%
M. Di Giusto33%
Oscar Kabwit20%
K. Letica0%
S. Simoni0%
Pius Dorn0%
Andrejs Cigaņiks0%
Stefan Knežević0%
Leonardo Bertone0%
Tyron Owusu0%
Aurelio Oehlers0%
N. Toggenburger0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Rúben Dantas0%
Sascha Meyer0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Mio Zimmermann0%
Lucas Silva0%
Sandro Wyss0%
FC Vaduz
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Monsberger33%
Julian Stark33%
Juan Cabrera33%
Lutfi Dalipi33%
D. Schwizer25%
Miloš Cocić17%
L. Schaffran0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
M. Hammerich0%
D. Simani0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Nicolas Hasler0%
Luca Mack0%
N. Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
D. Kasper0%
M. Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Simani60%
Dejan Đokić50%
M. Monsberger33%
Julian Stark33%
Juan Cabrera33%
M. Sawadogo20%
Liridon Berisha17%
Nicolas Hasler17%
Luca Mack17%
Lutfi Dalipi17%
L. Schaffran0%
D. Schwizer0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
M. Hammerich0%
N. Lang0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Miloš Cocić0%
D. Kasper0%
Mattia Walker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lutfi Dalipi67%
Dejan Sorgić33%
Nicolas Hasler33%
M. Monsberger17%
L. Schaffran0%
D. Schwizer0%
M. Hammerich0%
D. Simani0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Luca Mack0%
N. Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Julian Stark0%
Miloš Cocić0%
D. Kasper0%
Juan Cabrera0%
M. Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Monsberger50%
Juan Cabrera33%
D. Simani20%
Lutfi Dalipi17%
L. Schaffran0%
D. Schwizer0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
M. Hammerich0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Nicolas Hasler0%
Luca Mack0%
N. Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Julian Stark0%
Miloš Cocić0%
D. Kasper0%
M. Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
FT (25)
€17m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FV (26)
€6m
FC Luzern's squad is €20m more valuable than FC Vaduz's (€26m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Luzern's attack is €13m more valuable than FC Vaduz's (€15m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
FC Luzern and FC Vaduz have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Luzern's defence is €6m more valuable than FC Vaduz's (€8m vs €2m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
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FC Lugano
BSC Young Boys
FC Basel 1893
FC Sion
FC ST. Gallen
FC Thun
Lausanne
FC Zurich
Servette FC
Grasshoppers