FC Porto’s dominance at home is unmistakable, with a 78% chance of victory and a 3-goal average against a weaker side. The model picks a home win, and the expected total of 3.0 goals reflects Porto’s prolific attack and Moreirense’s frail defense, which concedes 3.0 goals per game away. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 15.1% probability, a tidy win that fits Porto’s 2.0 average goals scored and 0.38 conceded at home. Moreirense, struggling away, averages only 0.67 goals scored and 3.0 conceded against stronger opponents. Porto’s 5-game winning streak, highlighted by a 3-0 win over Academico Viseu, underpins the model’s confidence. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.6%), Home +2 handicap (99.2%), Under 7.5 (99.1% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 goals (99.1% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (97.4% with a 5% edge), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (95.9% with a 4% edge). The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 78%, 16%, and 6% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Porto win
79.2%
Avg Implied 80.1% · @ 1.18
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Dafabet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw
15.5%
Avg Implied 14.3% · @ 6.58
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
7.89
1xBet
7.03
Dafabet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Moreirense win
5.3%
Avg Implied 5.6% · @ 16.79
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
22.00
10Bet
20.00
Betfair
19.00
Bet365
19.00
Unibet
18.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Porto
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.67
1.75
0.38
1.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.80
0.64
2.00
0.38
1.58
0.92
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.50
0.93
1.43
0.94
1.56
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
2.62
0.60
2.40
0.67
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.09
1.11
0.89
1.00
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.5%
@ 1.19+1.1%
Under 1.5
20.5%
@ 4.31-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Unibet
4.70
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.9%
@ 1.63-1.4%
Under 2.5
44.1%
@ 2.19+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Under
1xBet
2.26
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.5%
@ 2.58-2.7%
Under 3.5
66.5%
@ 1.47+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Unibet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Both teams to score
Yes
36.7%
@ 2.55+0.3%
No
63.3%
@ 1.46-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
2.62
Superbet
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.58
No
Betfair
1.53
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.8%@ 5.16+7.1%
3-0
12.7%@ 6.05+5.3%
1-0
12.4%@ 6.03+4.9%
2-1
7.9%@ 9.34+3.1%
4-0
7.7%@ 9.27+2.9%
1-1
7.2%@ 11.93+3.5%
3-1
6.4%@ 11.23+2.4%
0-0
6.0%@ 13.19+2.7%
FC Porto goals ↓
Moreirense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
2.1%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
1
12%
7.2%
1.7%
0.3%
0.0%
2
16%
7.9%
2.0%
0.3%
0.0%
3
13%
6.4%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
4
7.7%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Porto goals (down), columns = Moreirense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
FC Porto is 1.32 points better than Moreirense in terms of average points per game (2.59 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
FC Porto is 0.85 goals better than Moreirense in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
FC Porto is 0.91 goals better than Moreirense in terms of goals conceded per game (0.53 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
FC Porto is 5.6 percentage points better than Moreirense in terms of average possession (55% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Porto
For 6.6 · Against 3.7 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 10.1 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
For 3.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 14.2 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Porto
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.1
8.5
4.8
4.6
5.0
26.2
25.7
26.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
8.9
8.6
9.5
7.4
7.8
6.5
26.4
24.4
31.5
vs Weaker (43)
8.8
9.2
8.4
4.4
3.9
4.9
26.1
26.0
26.3
% over line
38%
40%
35%
70%
62%
79%
77%
76%
78%
% under line
62%
60%
65%
30%
38%
21%
23%
24%
22%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.9
8.3
7.4
5.1
5.1
5.2
29.4
29.2
29.6
vs Stronger (11)
8.7
9.0
8.5
3.6
3.2
4.0
28.6
29.2
28.2
vs Similar (38)
7.6
8.1
7.1
5.4
5.3
5.5
29.6
29.1
30.1
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
11.0
11.0
-
30.0
30.0
-
% over line
27%
29%
24%
72%
67%
77%
94%
92%
96%
% under line
73%
71%
76%
28%
33%
23%
6%
8%
4%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Rio Ave
10.4
Nacional
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.6
Academico Viseu
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Arouca
8.9
Guimaraes
8.5
Maritimo
8.1
SC Braga
8.1
Moreirense
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
5.9
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.6
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.5
Famalicao
5.4
Nacional
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
FC Porto
5.2
Sporting CP
5.1
Benfica
5.0
Rio Ave
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.0
Santa Clara
30.1
Estrela
29.9
Moreirense
29.5
Casa Pia
29.2
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Rio Ave
27.0
Nacional
26.9
Estoril
26.7
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Arouca
26.0
Benfica
25.8
Academico Viseu
25.3
SC Braga
24.7
Maritimo
24.6
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.2%
@ 1.91-10.4%
Under 9.5
61.8%
@ 1.81+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Under
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.5%
@ 1.50+11.2%
Under 3.5
26.5%
@ 2.47-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.47
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.3%
Under 21.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Porto or Draw
95.7%
Avg Implied 93.1% · @ 1.02
Edge
+2.6%
79%
16%
5%
covers FC Porto + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
10Bet
1.02
FC Porto or Moreirense
85.2%
Avg Implied 86.2% · @ 1.10
Edge
-1.0%
79%
16%
5%
covers FC Porto + Moreirense
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Draw or Moreirense
19.1%
Avg Implied 20.7% · @ 4.59
Edge
-1.6%
79%
16%
5%
covers Draw + Moreirense
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.10
1xBet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
William Hil
4.60
Superbet
4.55
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Porto over/under 0.5
Over
91.0%
@ 1.05+1.6%
Under
9.0%
@ 8.90-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Under
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.30
Betano
7.70
FC Porto over/under 1.5
Over
69.4%
@ 1.31-1.2%
Under
30.6%
@ 3.16+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
FC Porto over/under 2.5
Over
43.4%
@ 2.00-3.3%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.74+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.01
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
FC Porto over/under 3.5
Over
22.4%
@ 3.54-3.8%
Under
77.6%
@ 1.26+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Moreirense over/under 0.5
Over
34.7%
@ 2.40-4.0%
Under
65.3%
@ 1.51+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Unibet
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.42
BetVictor
2.40
Under
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Moreirense over/under 1.5
Over
6.9%
@ 8.30-4.4%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.06+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.30
BetVictor
8.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Moreirense over/under 2.5
Over
0.9%
@ 29.17-2.4%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
34.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Moreirense over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
@ 100.00-99.9%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
100.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Porto, so a minus line means FC Porto give that many goals of a start and Moreirense receive them. At -1, FC Porto must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Porto win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Porto)
FC Porto -2
35.2%
@ 2.46-1.4%
Draw -2
23.7%
@ 3.75-0.2%
Moreirense +2
41.2%
@ 2.27+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.70
Superbet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.36
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.65
10Bet
3.60
Away
Unibet
2.43
10Bet
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Handicap -1 (FC Porto)
FC Porto -1
58.8%
@ 1.55+1.1%
Draw -1
22.1%
@ 3.88-0.9%
Moreirense +1
19.1%
@ 4.64-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Draw
Marathonbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Away
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Handicap +1 (FC Porto)
FC Porto +1
95.7%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Draw +1
3.4%
@ 17.00-2.2%
Moreirense -1
0.8%
@ 61.00-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
17.00
Away
Betfair
71.00
Bet365
51.00
Handicap +2 (FC Porto)
FC Porto +2
99.2%
Draw +2
0.7%
Moreirense -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.27
0.94
0.12
0.86
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
0.96
0.32
1.08
0.15
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.36
0.57
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.40
0.80
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.50
0.33
0.44
0.54
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.4%
@ 1.30+5.7%
Under 0.5
22.6%
@ 3.30-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.1%
@ 2.36+1.8%
Under 1.5
58.9%
@ 1.53-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
Betfair
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Under
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 5.59-1.6%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.11+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Under
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HT
Over
67.7%
@ 1.38+0.7%
Under
32.3%
@ 2.81-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
1xBet
2.88
10Bet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
Superbet
2.77
Betano
2.67
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HT
Over
32.6%
@ 2.85+0.1%
Under
67.4%
@ 1.37-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.82
10Bet
2.80
Under
Unibet
1.42
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HT
Over
10.0%
@ 7.12-3.1%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.07+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HT
Over
25.8%
@ 4.45+4.9%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.17-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
Betano
4.55
1xBet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.0%
@ 17.75-1.4%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.5%
@ 90.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
90.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.81
0.25
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
0.84
0.32
0.92
0.23
0.75
0.42
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.57
0.86
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.50
0.20
1.60
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.59
0.78
0.44
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.2%
@ 1.17+5.1%
Under 0.5
15.8%
@ 4.45-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.60
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.7%
@ 1.85+1.5%
Under 1.5
48.3%
@ 1.87-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.88
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.3%
@ 3.68-3.0%
Under 2.5
77.7%
@ 1.25+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2H
Over
77.8%
@ 1.26+4.0%
Under
22.2%
@ 3.53-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Under
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.60
Superbet
3.40
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2H
Over
39.8%
@ 2.21-2.2%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.60+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Under
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.9%
@ 4.80-6.5%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.15+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2H
Over
30.2%
@ 3.50+3.6%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.26-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.55
Superbet
3.50
1xBet
3.30
Under
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2H
Over
4.6%
@ 13.50-2.4%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.1%
@ 75.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
75.00
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
96.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
Home or Draw
95.7%
1.02
William Hil
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
10Bet
1.02
+2.6%
Home +1 handicap
95.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
+2.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
Under 5.5
93.1%
1.05
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+4.0%
Away under 1.5 goals
93.1%
1.06
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
+4.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.0%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
+1.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-
+3.1%
Over 2.5 cards
87.5%
1.22
Betano
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.1%
1.15
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
-
+6.5%
Over 21.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.2%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
-1.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.11
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
+1.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+5.1%
Under 4.5
84.1%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+4.3%
Under 11.5 corners
82.5%
1.29
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
+11.5%
Over 1.5
79.5%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+1.1%
Home win
79.2%
1.18
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Dafabet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-0.9%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.26
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
-
-
+4.0%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.7%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+3.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
77.6%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+3.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.4%
1.30
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+5.7%
Away under 0.5 HT goals
74.2%
1.17
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
-4.9%
Over 23.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.5%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+11.2%
Under 10.5 corners
73.3%
1.48
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
+11.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Porto
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gabri Veiga75%
André Silva50%
Borja Sainz50%
Nehuén Pérez25%
William Gomes25%
Pablo Rosario0%
Diogo Costa0%
Hwang In-beom0%
Jan Bednarek0%
Pepê0%
Jakub Kiwior0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Alberto Costa0%
Deniz Gül0%
Victor Froholdt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hwang In-beom33%
Nehuén Pérez0%
Pablo Rosario0%
Diogo Costa0%
André Silva0%
Jan Bednarek0%
Pepê0%
Jakub Kiwior0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Borja Sainz0%
Gabri Veiga0%
Alberto Costa0%
Deniz Gül0%
Victor Froholdt0%
William Gomes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pepê50%
Gabri Veiga50%
Hwang In-beom33%
William Gomes25%
Nehuén Pérez0%
Pablo Rosario0%
Diogo Costa0%
André Silva0%
Jan Bednarek0%
Jakub Kiwior0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Borja Sainz0%
Alberto Costa0%
Deniz Gül0%
Victor Froholdt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Borja Sainz50%
Deniz Gül33%
Pepê25%
Gabri Veiga25%
Victor Froholdt25%
Nehuén Pérez0%
Pablo Rosario0%
Diogo Costa0%
André Silva0%
Hwang In-beom0%
Jan Bednarek0%
Jakub Kiwior0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Alberto Costa0%
William Gomes0%
Moreirense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
FC Porto's squad is €445m more valuable than Moreirense's (€467m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FC Porto's attack is €210m more valuable than Moreirense's (€214m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
FC Porto's midfield is €96m more valuable than Moreirense's (€105m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
FC Porto's defence is €138m more valuable than Moreirense's (€148m vs €9m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia