Defensive solidity will shape the forecast, with FC Slutsk averaging 1.0 goal per home game yet conceding 1.67, while Bumprom, on a two-game winning streak, scores 1.5 and concedes only 1.17 away. The model favours a home win, assigning 47 % to FC Slutsk, 34 % to a draw, and 19 % to Bumprom. The expected total is 1.8 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for FC Slutsk, with a 18.3 % probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.6 %), Under 5.5 (99.0 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (97.5 %). FC Slutsk’s recent draw against Minsk II and Bumprom’s 2-1 win over Dinamo Minsk II underline the tight, low-scoring nature of the encounter.
Results analysis
FC Slutsk’s recent win extended their form, and they finished the match 4-1 to secure a home victory, matching the model’s predicted outcome. The model had named a home win as the favourite with a 48% probability, and it proved correct. The suggested picks all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.9%, Under 6.5 at 99.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.6%, Under 5.5 at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.5%, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.3%. The final score of 4-1 confirmed the model’s selections and the home team’s dominant performance.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Slutsk win✓ Hit
47.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bumprom win✗ Miss
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Slutsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.60
0.75
1.42
0.78
1.72
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.58
0.60
1.60
0.86
1.57
vs Similar (17)
0.82
1.71
1.00
1.50
0.73
1.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bumprom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.17
2.29
1.00
1.44
1.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.96
1.04
2.36
1.00
1.62
1.08
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.40
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
54.2%
Under 1.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
26.3%
Under 2.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
10.5%
Under 3.5
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
32.8%
No
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
18.4%
0-0
18.1%
1-1
13.3%
2-0
11.4%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
7.0%
3-0
4.4%
1-2
3.7%
FC Slutsk goals ↓
Bumprom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
9.2%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
1
18%
13%
3.7%
0.8%
0.1%
2
11%
7.0%
2.2%
0.4%
0.1%
3
4.4%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.3%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Slutsk goals (down), columns = Bumprom goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
FC Slutsk is 0.09 points worse than Bumprom in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
FC Slutsk is 0.07 goals better than Bumprom in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
FC Slutsk is 0.62 goals better than Bumprom in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Slutsk or Draw✓ Hit
81.5%
Avg Implied -
48%
34%
18%
covers FC Slutsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk or Bumprom✓ Hit
66.2%
Avg Implied -
48%
34%
18%
covers FC Slutsk + Bumprom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bumprom✗ Miss
52.3%
Avg Implied -
48%
34%
18%
covers Draw + Bumprom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Slutsk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.6%
Under
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Slutsk, so a minus line means FC Slutsk give that many goals of a start and Bumprom receive them. At -1, FC Slutsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Slutsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Slutsk)Actual: FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk -2
7.1%
Draw -2
14.3%
Bumprom +2
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Slutsk)Actual: FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk -1
21.4%
Draw -1
26.3%
Bumprom +1
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Slutsk)Actual: FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk +1
81.5%
Draw +1
13.5%
Bumprom -1
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Slutsk)Actual: FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk +2
95.0%
Draw +2
4.1%
Bumprom -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Slutsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.25
0.67
0.44
0.89
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.75
0.40
0.40
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.88
0.17
1.00
0.64
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bumprom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.57
0.43
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.42
0.73
0.27
0.92
0.54
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.1%
Under 0.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.3%
Under 1.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.1%
Under 2.5
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Slutsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Slutsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.83
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.20
1.20
0.71
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.82
0.83
0.50
0.09
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bumprom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.60
1.71
0.57
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.62
1.64
0.73
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.0%
Under 0.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.1%
Under 1.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.4%
Under 2.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Slutsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
FC Slutsk and Bumprom have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
FC Slutsk and Bumprom have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
FC Slutsk and Bumprom have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
FC Slutsk and Bumprom have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →