This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.62
2.00
1.25
2.50
2.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
2.17
1.25
2.50
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
-
-
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
12% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.7%
Under 2.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.6%
Under 3.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.9%
No
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.0%
1-2 ✓
9.7%
1-1
9.3%
0-1
7.8%
0-3
7.7%
1-3
7.5%
2-2
4.7%
0-0
4.6%
FC Zurich goals ↓
FC Lugano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
7.8%
10%
7.7%
4.4%
1
2.8%
9.3%
9.7%
7.5%
4.3%
2
1.8%
4.1%
4.7%
3.7%
2.1%
3
0.6%
1.3%
1.5%
1.2%
0.7%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Zurich goals (down), columns = FC Lugano goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.06
Servette FC
1.61
FC Lugano
1.58
FC Luzern
1.39
FC Basel 1893
1.31
FC ST. Gallen
1.25
Grasshoppers
1.22
FC Zurich
1.22
FC Winterthur
0.89
FC Sion
0.82
FC Zurich is 0.36 points worse than FC Lugano in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.28
FC ST. Gallen
1.83
FC Lugano
1.64
Grasshoppers
1.56
FC Luzern
1.50
Servette FC
1.47
FC Basel 1893
1.42
FC Zurich
1.14
FC Sion
1.13
FC Winterthur
0.89
FC Zurich is 0.50 goals worse than FC Lugano in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
BSC Young Boys
0.83
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.00
Servette FC
1.28
FC Lugano
1.31
FC Basel 1893
1.39
FC ST. Gallen
1.44
FC Luzern
1.44
FC Zurich
1.53
Grasshoppers
1.78
FC Winterthur
1.83
FC Sion
2.08
FC Zurich is 0.22 goals worse than FC Lugano in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
BSC Young Boys
57%
FC Lugano
54%
FC Basel 1893
54%
FC ST. Gallen
53%
Servette FC
50%
FC Luzern
49%
FC Zurich
48%
FC Sion
48%
Grasshoppers
46%
FC Winterthur
41%
FC Zurich is 6.5 percentage points worse than FC Lugano in terms of average possession (48% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Zurich
For 4.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 13.3 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Lugano
For 5.9 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Zurich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
10.0
11.0
9.0
5.2
5.3
5.0
27.1
27.8
26.4
vs Stronger (3)
9.3
11.0
8.5
8.7
13.0
6.5
34.0
46.0
28.0
vs Similar (8)
10.8
11.0
10.5
3.9
3.8
4.0
23.8
23.2
25.0
vs Weaker (1)
7.0
-
7.0
5.0
-
5.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
60%
80%
40%
83%
83%
83%
90%
100%
80%
% under line
40%
20%
60%
17%
17%
17%
10%
0%
20%
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (8)
10.5
11.0
10.0
4.1
3.8
4.5
23.9
23.5
24.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
11.2
11.0
11.5
4.5
3.8
6.0
24.8
23.5
27.5
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
-
8.5
3.0
-
3.0
21.0
-
21.0
% over line
62%
50%
75%
75%
75%
75%
75%
75%
75%
% under line
38%
50%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Grasshoppers
14.0
FC Sion
13.5
FC Luzern
12.4
FC ST. Gallen
11.8
FC Basel 1893
11.4
FC Lugano
10.5
Servette FC
10.2
FC Zurich
10.0
BSC Young Boys
9.6
FC Winterthur
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Basel 1893
6.2
FC Zurich
6.2
FC Winterthur
6.0
FC Luzern
6.0
Servette FC
5.8
FC Sion
5.7
FC ST. Gallen
5.0
Grasshoppers
4.8
BSC Young Boys
4.3
FC Lugano
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Zurich
27.1
BSC Young Boys
24.8
Grasshoppers
24.0
FC Lugano
23.9
FC ST. Gallen
23.7
FC Sion
22.8
FC Basel 1893
22.3
FC Luzern
22.0
FC Winterthur
21.8
Servette FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
72.9%
Under 9.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
82.3%
Under 3.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.3%
Under 21.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Zurich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.17
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.88
0.25
1.25
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.83
0.25
1.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Zurich over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Zurich
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.08
0.50
1.17
0.83
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.75
0.40
1.20
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
1.12
1.00
1.25
1.25
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.33
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
25% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Zurich over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Zurich
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tosin Aiyegun23%
Jonathan Okita19%
Roko Šimić19%
Mirlind Kryeziu16%
Blerim Džemaili15%
Ifeanyi Mathew15%
Calixte Ligue11%
Donis Avdijaj9%
Antonio Marchesano7%
Ivan Santini7%
Lindrit Kamberi5%
Marc Hornschuh4%
Nikola Katić4%
Fabian Rohner3%
Adrián Guerrero3%
Cheick Oumar Conde3%
Bledian Krasniqi3%
Nikola Boranijašević2%
Yanick Brecher0%
Bećir Omeragić0%
Ole Selnaes0%
Karol Mets0%
Fidan Aliti0%
Stephan Seiler0%
Wilfried Gnonto0%
Bogdan V'Yunnik0%
Selmin Hodza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mirlind Kryeziu53%
Cheick Oumar Conde41%
Fidan Aliti34%
Ivan Santini33%
Stephan Seiler33%
Roko Šimić31%
Nikola Katić31%
Ifeanyi Mathew31%
Ole Selnaes29%
Blerim Džemaili27%
Wilfried Gnonto25%
Nikola Boranijašević22%
Lindrit Kamberi20%
Donis Avdijaj18%
Selmin Hodza14%
Jonathan Okita14%
Bećir Omeragić12%
Marc Hornschuh12%
Karol Mets12%
Tosin Aiyegun11%
Calixte Ligue11%
Fabian Rohner9%
Adrián Guerrero8%
Antonio Marchesano5%
Yanick Brecher5%
Bledian Krasniqi3%
Bogdan V'Yunnik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stephan Seiler17%
Antonio Marchesano10%
Nikola Boranijašević10%
Ole Selnaes8%
Roko Šimić6%
Fidan Aliti6%
Tosin Aiyegun6%
Adrián Guerrero6%
Jonathan Okita5%
Blerim Džemaili4%
Fabian Rohner3%
Cheick Oumar Conde3%
Bledian Krasniqi3%
Yanick Brecher0%
Mirlind Kryeziu0%
Bećir Omeragić0%
Ivan Santini0%
Nikola Katić0%
Marc Hornschuh0%
Karol Mets0%
Ifeanyi Mathew0%
Donis Avdijaj0%
Lindrit Kamberi0%
Wilfried Gnonto0%
Bogdan V'Yunnik0%
Calixte Ligue0%
Selmin Hodza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tosin Aiyegun37%
Jonathan Okita30%
Antonio Marchesano22%
Wilfried Gnonto12%
Bogdan V'Yunnik9%
Ivan Santini7%
Blerim Džemaili4%
Fabian Rohner3%
Adrián Guerrero3%
Lindrit Kamberi2%
Yanick Brecher0%
Mirlind Kryeziu0%
Bećir Omeragić0%
Bledian Krasniqi0%
Nikola Katić0%
Ole Selnaes0%
Marc Hornschuh0%
Karol Mets0%
Fidan Aliti0%
Nikola Boranijašević0%
Ifeanyi Mathew0%
Donis Avdijaj0%
Stephan Seiler0%
Cheick Oumar Conde0%
Roko Šimić0%
Calixte Ligue0%
Selmin Hodza0%
FC Lugano
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žan Celar45%
Ignacio Aliseda30%
Renato Steffen25%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura22%
Reto Ziegler18%
Jonathan Sabbatini8%
Ousmane Doumbia8%
Boris Babić7%
Uran Bislimi7%
Milton Valenzuela6%
Maren Haile-Selassie6%
Kreshnik Hajrizi5%
Hicham Mahou5%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud5%
Mattia Bottani4%
Allan Arigoni4%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Mickaël Facchinetti0%
Jhon Espinoza0%
Fabio Daprelà0%
Roman Macek0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Amir Saipi0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Albian Hajdari0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Allan Arigoni43%
Kreshnik Hajrizi42%
Albian Hajdari42%
Renato Steffen36%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud29%
Milton Valenzuela28%
Hicham Mahou20%
Fabio Daprelà19%
Amir Saipi13%
Jhon Espinoza12%
Mickaël Facchinetti11%
Jonathan Sabbatini11%
Ousmane Doumbia11%
Boris Babić11%
Roman Macek10%
Uran Bislimi10%
Žan Celar10%
Reto Ziegler9%
Mattia Bottani7%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura6%
Maren Haile-Selassie6%
Lars Lukas Mai5%
Ignacio Aliseda0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Renato Steffen21%
Roman Macek21%
Adrian Durrer20%
Maren Haile-Selassie18%
Jhon Espinoza12%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura12%
Allan Arigoni11%
Hicham Mahou10%
Milton Valenzuela9%
Reto Ziegler9%
Ignacio Aliseda9%
Žan Celar6%
Jonathan Sabbatini5%
Ousmane Doumbia5%
Mattia Bottani4%
Boris Babić4%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Mickaël Facchinetti0%
Fabio Daprelà0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud0%
Amir Saipi0%
Kreshnik Hajrizi0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Albian Hajdari0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Žan Celar35%
Renato Steffen14%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura12%
Maren Haile-Selassie12%
Mattia Bottani11%
Ignacio Aliseda9%
Jonathan Sabbatini8%
Ousmane Doumbia8%
Boris Babić4%
Milton Valenzuela3%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Mickaël Facchinetti0%
Jhon Espinoza0%
Fabio Daprelà0%
Roman Macek0%
Allan Arigoni0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Reto Ziegler0%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud0%
Amir Saipi0%
Hicham Mahou0%
Kreshnik Hajrizi0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Albian Hajdari0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FC Zurich's squad is €24m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€15m vs €39m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
FC Zurich's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€6m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FW (7)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
FC Zurich's midfield is €4m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€3m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
FC Zurich's defence is €18m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€6m vs €24m).
Switzerland: Super League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
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BSC Young Boys
Servette FC
FC Luzern
FC Basel 1893
FC ST. Gallen
Grasshoppers
FC Winterthur
FC Sion
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy