This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
1.19
1.00
1.08
1.08
1.31
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.17
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.20
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
31% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.5%
Under 1.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.4%
Under 2.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.1%
1-0
10.7%
0-1
10.7%
2-1 ✓
7.5%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.7%
Feirense goals ↓
Penafiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
2
6.7%
7.5%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.5%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Feirense goals (down), columns = Penafiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Moreirense
2.32
Farense
2.03
Vilaverdense
2.00
Estrela
1.85
Academico Viseu
1.56
FC Porto B
1.50
Mafra
1.38
Vilafranquense
1.35
Feirense
1.35
Torreense
1.29
Oliveirense
1.26
Tondela
1.18
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.15
Nacional
1.15
Benfica B
1.12
Belenenses
1.00
Trofense
0.94
SC Covilha
0.82
Feirense is 0.21 points better than Penafiel in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Moreirense
2.26
Farense
1.68
Estrela
1.62
Benfica B
1.53
Oliveirense
1.50
Academico Viseu
1.50
FC Porto B
1.41
Mafra
1.35
Feirense
1.26
Vilafranquense
1.24
Belenenses
1.17
Leixoes
1.12
Torreense
1.12
Penafiel
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Nacional
1.03
Vilaverdense
1.00
SC Covilha
0.91
Trofense
0.91
Feirense is 0.21 goals better than Penafiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vilaverdense
0.50
Farense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
Estrela
1.03
Vilafranquense
1.06
Feirense
1.09
Moreirense
1.12
FC Porto B
1.18
Torreense
1.21
Academico Viseu
1.32
Nacional
1.35
Penafiel
1.38
Leixoes
1.44
Mafra
1.44
Oliveirense
1.47
Trofense
1.50
SC Covilha
1.68
Belenenses
1.69
Benfica B
1.71
Feirense is 0.29 goals better than Penafiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Oliveirense
56%
Estrela
54%
Farense
53%
Mafra
53%
Moreirense
53%
Benfica B
52%
Vilafranquense
52%
Academico Viseu
51%
Torreense
51%
Penafiel
50%
FC Porto B
50%
Tondela
48%
Feirense
47%
SC Covilha
47%
Leixoes
46%
Belenenses
46%
Nacional
46%
Trofense
40%
Feirense is 3.5 percentage points worse than Penafiel in terms of average possession (47% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Feirense
For 5.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 14.7 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
For 6.2 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 16.7 · Total 31.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Feirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.9
8.5
2.8
2.9
2.7
34.5
33.5
35.6
vs Stronger (16)
11.4
12.0
10.2
2.2
2.9
1.5
35.5
34.9
36.5
vs Similar (34)
8.7
9.9
7.8
3.1
2.9
3.2
33.9
32.2
35.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
60%
29%
36%
38%
35%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
55%
40%
71%
64%
62%
65%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (26)
9.8
11.0
8.5
3.8
3.5
4.1
31.8
32.9
30.5
vs Stronger (6)
8.5
11.5
5.5
3.3
2.0
4.7
27.8
26.0
29.5
vs Similar (20)
10.2
10.9
9.5
3.9
3.9
3.9
33.0
34.9
30.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
56%
38%
58%
54%
62%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
53%
44%
62%
42%
46%
38%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Estrela
12.3
Leixoes
11.9
FC Porto B
11.2
Academico Viseu
11.1
Nacional
11.1
SC Covilha
11.0
Benfica B
10.9
Oliveirense
10.7
Trofense
10.6
Farense
10.6
Vilafranquense
10.4
Belenenses
10.2
Moreirense
10.0
Feirense
9.9
Penafiel
9.8
Tondela
9.5
Mafra
9.4
Torreense
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Oliveirense
7.4
Trofense
7.2
Leixoes
6.9
Belenenses
6.6
Tondela
6.6
Academico Viseu
6.4
Moreirense
6.4
Estrela
6.2
Farense
6.2
FC Porto B
6.2
Torreense
6.1
Vilafranquense
6.1
SC Covilha
5.9
Penafiel
5.8
Benfica B
5.7
Mafra
5.5
Nacional
5.5
Feirense
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feirense
35.0
Oliveirense
33.4
Farense
32.8
Trofense
32.2
Penafiel
31.8
Vilafranquense
31.6
Belenenses
30.8
Nacional
30.7
Tondela
30.6
Torreense
30.2
SC Covilha
29.6
Leixoes
29.2
Estrela
29.0
Moreirense
28.7
Academico Viseu
28.0
Mafra
27.8
FC Porto B
27.6
Benfica B
26.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.6%
Under 9.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
87.5%
Under 3.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
90.4%
Under 21.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Feirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.21
0.50
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.38
0.23
0.46
0.55
0.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.46
0.08
0.54
0.46
0.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.40
0.10
0.40
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
65% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Feirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Feirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
1.00
0.86
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.60
0.80
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.67
1.00
0.85
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.92
0.54
0.62
0.92
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.70
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
46% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Feirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Feirense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonny Arriba33%
João Lima25%
Guilherme Meira Ferreira Alves17%
Pedrinho0%
Pedro Mendes0%
Bruno Silva0%
Luiz Gustavo0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Diego Altube0%
Luís Santos0%
João Oliveira0%
Antonio Leal0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Desmond Nketia0%
André Lopes0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Gastón Novero0%
Pedrinho0%
Samad Popoola0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tiago Ribeiro60%
Samad Popoola60%
Zé Ricardo50%
André Lopes50%
João Lima50%
Emanuel Fernandes43%
João Oliveira33%
Jonny Arriba33%
Bruno Silva25%
Gastón Novero25%
Luiz Gustavo20%
Diego Altube20%
Guilherme Meira Ferreira Alves17%
Antonio Leal14%
Pedrinho0%
Pedro Mendes0%
Luís Santos0%
Desmond Nketia0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Pedrinho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Oliveira33%
Pedrinho0%
Pedro Mendes0%
Bruno Silva0%
Luiz Gustavo0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Diego Altube0%
Luís Santos0%
Antonio Leal0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Desmond Nketia0%
André Lopes0%
Jonny Arriba0%
João Lima0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Gastón Novero0%
Pedrinho0%
Guilherme Meira Ferreira Alves0%
Samad Popoola0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luiz Gustavo20%
Tiago Ribeiro20%
Pedrinho0%
Pedro Mendes0%
Bruno Silva0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Diego Altube0%
Luís Santos0%
João Oliveira0%
Antonio Leal0%
Desmond Nketia0%
André Lopes0%
Jonny Arriba0%
João Lima0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Gastón Novero0%
Pedrinho0%
Guilherme Meira Ferreira Alves0%
Samad Popoola0%
Penafiel · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Pereira29%
Reko22%
Zé Leite17%
Raul Alcaina17%
Goncalo Negrao14%
Álvaro Santos11%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruben Alves43%
Pedro Sá38%
Reko33%
Zé Leite33%
Teddy Alloh33%
Francisco Ferreira33%
Cláudio Silva29%
Dani Molina25%
Álvaro Santos22%
Raul Alcaina17%
Jaime Sánchez17%
Bruno Pereira14%
Iano Simão14%
Joan Femenías11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
João Miguel0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Alves29%
Zé Leite17%
Álvaro Santos11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soma Anzai20%
Goncalo Negrao14%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Zé Leite0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Joseph Sery0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
FAR (24)
€8m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
OLI (7)
€1m
Feirense and Penafiel have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FAR (10)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Feirense and Penafiel have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
MOR (8)
€8m
FPB (6)
€7m
NAC (8)
€5m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
TOR (5)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Feirense and Penafiel have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
EST (11)
€11m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
FPB (12)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
OLI (5)
€1m
Feirense and Penafiel have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Moreirense
Farense
Estrela
Academico Viseu
FC Porto B
Mafra
Vilafranquense
Torreense
Oliveirense
Tondela
Leixoes
Nacional
Benfica B
Belenenses
Trofense
SC Covilha
Vilaverdense