This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.20
2.27
0.93
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
4.50
vs Similar (23)
2.00
1.00
2.36
1.18
1.67
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.8%
Under 2.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.5%
Under 3.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
0-2
10.9%
0-1 ✓
10.3%
1-2
9.9%
0-3
7.0%
0-0
6.9%
1-3
6.3%
2-1
4.7%
FF Jaro goals ↓
Ilves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
10%
11%
7.0%
3.3%
1
4.3%
11%
9.9%
6.3%
3.0%
2
2.4%
4.7%
4.5%
2.9%
1.4%
3
0.7%
1.4%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FF Jaro goals (down), columns = Ilves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Turku PS
3.00
KuPS
2.09
Inter Turku
1.91
Ilves
1.88
SJK
1.84
HJK Helsinki
1.53
FF Jaro
1.26
Mariehamn
1.19
VPS
1.15
Gnistan
1.03
AC Oulu
1.00
Kooteepee
0.72
Haka
0.63
FF Jaro is 0.62 points worse than Ilves in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turku PS
3.00
HJK Helsinki
2.31
SJK
2.19
Ilves
2.12
KuPS
1.94
Inter Turku
1.88
Gnistan
1.47
VPS
1.37
FF Jaro
1.30
AC Oulu
1.30
Mariehamn
1.26
Kooteepee
1.14
Haka
1.11
FF Jaro is 0.83 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 2.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Turku PS
1.00
Inter Turku
1.03
KuPS
1.06
Ilves
1.41
VPS
1.56
SJK
1.59
HJK Helsinki
1.62
FF Jaro
1.63
Haka
1.85
Mariehamn
1.96
AC Oulu
1.96
Gnistan
2.03
Kooteepee
2.31
FF Jaro is 0.22 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HJK Helsinki
58%
Ilves
54%
KuPS
53%
VPS
50%
Kooteepee
50%
Inter Turku
50%
SJK
49%
AC Oulu
49%
FF Jaro
49%
Mariehamn
48%
Gnistan
44%
Haka
44%
Turku PS
37%
FF Jaro is 5.8 percentage points worse than Ilves in terms of average possession (49% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FF Jaro
For 4.7 · Against 6.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 6.3 · Total 15.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ilves
For 7.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.0 · Against 14.5 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FF Jaro
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.0
11.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
15.7
22.0
12.5
vs Stronger (4)
13.0
-
13.0
0.8
0.0
1.0
11.0
-
11.0
vs Similar (39)
10.0
11.0
9.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
18.0
22.0
14.0
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
67%
100%
50%
2%
0%
4%
33%
100%
0%
% under line
33%
0%
50%
98%
100%
96%
67%
0%
100%
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
12.0
10.3
0.5
0.3
0.6
23.5
28.0
22.0
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
12.0
8.0
2.5
2.7
2.3
25.5
28.0
23.0
vs Similar (39)
11.5
-
11.5
0.2
0.0
0.5
21.5
-
21.5
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
75%
100%
67%
6%
4%
8%
75%
100%
67%
% under line
25%
0%
33%
94%
96%
92%
25%
0%
33%
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AC Oulu
12.0
Gnistan
11.5
Kooteepee
11.4
FF Jaro
11.0
SJK
10.6
Haka
10.6
Mariehamn
10.4
Inter Turku
9.9
VPS
9.9
KuPS
9.8
Ilves
9.7
HJK Helsinki
9.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gnistan
5.5
AC Oulu
5.0
Kooteepee
4.9
Inter Turku
4.4
Mariehamn
4.4
Haka
4.3
KuPS
4.3
SJK
4.1
Ilves
3.8
VPS
3.7
HJK Helsinki
3.2
FF Jaro
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AC Oulu
25.5
Ilves
25.0
Inter Turku
24.5
Mariehamn
24.4
SJK
23.9
KuPS
23.7
Gnistan
23.5
Kooteepee
23.1
HJK Helsinki
22.9
Haka
22.4
VPS
22.1
FF Jaro
15.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
65.7%
Under 9.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.7%
Under 3.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
54.0%
Under 21.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FF Jaro
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.85
0.38
0.71
1.06
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.79
0.91
0.45
0.69
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.93
0.33
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.30
0.82
0.45
0.42
0.17
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
2.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FF Jaro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FF Jaro
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.00
0.92
1.06
0.59
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
0.00
3.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.50
1.00
0.64
0.92
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.77
1.33
0.60
1.13
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.39
0.70
1.55
0.73
1.25
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FF Jaro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FF Jaro
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kerfala Cissoko50%
Severi Kähkönen25%
Albin Björkskog25%
Sergei Eremenko12%
Michael Ogungbaro12%
Rudi Vikstrom12%
Guillermo Sotelo0%
Robin Polley0%
Miguel Santos0%
Samouil Izountouemoi0%
Manasse Kusu0%
Filip Valenčič0%
Adam Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
Jim Myrevik0%
Joni Remesaho0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Sami Sipola0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Guillermo Sotelo33%
Sami Sipola33%
Erik Gunnarsson20%
Kerfala Cissoko12%
Sergei Eremenko12%
Severi Kähkönen12%
Jim Myrevik12%
Albin Björkskog12%
Robin Polley0%
Miguel Santos0%
Samouil Izountouemoi0%
Manasse Kusu0%
Filip Valenčič0%
Adam Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
Joni Remesaho0%
Michael Ogungbaro0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
Rudi Vikstrom0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Guillermo Sotelo33%
Kerfala Cissoko12%
Sergei Eremenko12%
Severi Kähkönen12%
Jim Myrevik12%
Robin Polley0%
Miguel Santos0%
Samouil Izountouemoi0%
Manasse Kusu0%
Filip Valenčič0%
Adam Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
Joni Remesaho0%
Michael Ogungbaro0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Sami Sipola0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
Albin Björkskog0%
Rudi Vikstrom0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergei Eremenko25%
Adam Vidjeskog14%
Albin Björkskog12%
Rudi Vikstrom12%
Guillermo Sotelo0%
Robin Polley0%
Miguel Santos0%
Kerfala Cissoko0%
Samouil Izountouemoi0%
Manasse Kusu0%
Filip Valenčič0%
Johan Brunell0%
Severi Kähkönen0%
Jim Myrevik0%
Joni Remesaho0%
Michael Ogungbaro0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Sami Sipola0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
Ilves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Roope Riski33%
Teemu Hytönen29%
Jardell Kanga23%
Jesse Kilo20%
Tatu Miettunen18%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi18%
Joona Veteli17%
Oiva Jukkola17%
Marius Söderbäck15%
Anton Popovitch8%
Maksim Stjopin8%
Matias Rale8%
Sauli Väisänen0%
Otso Virtanen0%
Aapo Mäenpää0%
Faris Krkalić0%
Kalle Wallius0%
André Raymond0%
Vincent Ulundu0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sauli Väisänen30%
Anton Popovitch25%
Faris Krkalić17%
Oiva Jukkola17%
Matias Rale15%
Jardell Kanga15%
Otso Virtanen12%
Tatu Miettunen9%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi9%
Roope Riski8%
Joona Veteli8%
Aapo Mäenpää0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
Kalle Wallius0%
Teemu Hytönen0%
André Raymond0%
Marius Söderbäck0%
Jesse Kilo0%
Vincent Ulundu0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marius Söderbäck31%
Vincent Ulundu20%
Roope Riski17%
Maksim Stjopin17%
Matias Rale15%
Jardell Kanga15%
André Raymond14%
Sauli Väisänen10%
Joona Veteli8%
Oiva Jukkola8%
Tatu Miettunen0%
Otso Virtanen0%
Aapo Mäenpää0%
Anton Popovitch0%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi0%
Faris Krkalić0%
Kalle Wallius0%
Teemu Hytönen0%
Jesse Kilo0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jesse Kilo20%
Roope Riski17%
Anton Popovitch8%
Joona Veteli8%
Oiva Jukkola8%
Sauli Väisänen0%
Tatu Miettunen0%
Otso Virtanen0%
Aapo Mäenpää0%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi0%
Matias Rale0%
Faris Krkalić0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
Kalle Wallius0%
Teemu Hytönen0%
André Raymond0%
Jardell Kanga0%
Marius Söderbäck0%
Vincent Ulundu0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
FF Jaro's squad is €2m less valuable than Ilves's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (10)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
FF Jaro and Ilves have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
FF Jaro and Ilves have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
FF Jaro's defence is €1m less valuable than Ilves's (€1m vs €2m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Inter Turku
SJK
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
Mariehamn
VPS
AC Oulu
Kooteepee
Haka
Turku PS