FK Crvena Zvezda are the clear favourites to win this Champions League fixture, a verdict the model backs with a 79 % chance of a home victory. Their recent 2-game winning run and a 4-0 demolition of Cukaricki underline the strength of their home form, where they average 2.93 goals scored and concede only 0.64. Larne, fresh from a win over Lincoln Red Imps FC, will struggle on an unfamiliar pitch, and the model assigns them only a 6 % chance of triumph. The predicted outcome is a home win, with an expected 3.2 goals in total and a 3-goal total most likely. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, with a 13.8 % probability. The model’s selections include a 78.9 % chance of a home win, 84.4 % for Under 5.5 cards, 83.9 % for Under 25.5 fouls, 83.1 % for Over 1.5 goals, 71.8 % for Under 23.5 fouls, 70.8 % for Over 8.5 corners, and 70.6 % for Under 4.5 cards. The draw probability sits at 15 %, while the away win probability is 6 %.
FK Crvena Zvezda finished 5-0 against Larne (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 79% home win, 15% draw and 6% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (83%), Home win (79%).
FK Crvena Zvezda| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.30 | 0.67 | 2.62 | 0.69 | 1.93 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (27) | 2.48 | 0.67 | 2.93 | 0.64 | 2.00 | 0.69 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Larne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 0.87 | 1.88 | 1.12 | 1.93 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.56 | 0.67 | 1.36 | 0.91 | 1.86 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 2.64 | 0.91 | 3.75 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Larne goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10% | 7.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 14% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 12% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 7.6% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
FK Crvena Zvezda
Larne
FK Crvena Zvezda| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 24.0 | 23.2 | 24.8 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 9.8 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 25.8 | 31.0 | 22.3 |
| vs Similar (3) | 8.5 | 8.5 | - | 2.3 | 2.3 | - | 26.0 | 26.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (42) | 10.4 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 23.6 | 22.1 | 25.1 |
| % over line | 58% | 58% | 58% | 48% | 36% | 60% | 65% | 62% | 67% |
| % under line | 42% | 42% | 42% | 52% | 64% | 40% | 35% | 38% | 33% |
Larne| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (18) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
FK Crvena Zvezda| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 0.40 | 1.19 | 0.25 | 1.14 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (27) | 1.26 | 0.41 | 1.36 | 0.21 | 1.15 | 0.62 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+39pp vs league) | |||||
Larne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 0.50 | 1.14 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.72 | 0.28 | 0.55 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.14 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.27 | 0.64 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.29 | 0.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+39pp vs league) | |||||
FK Crvena Zvezda| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.27 | 1.44 | 0.44 | 0.79 | 0.07 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (27) | 1.22 | 0.26 | 1.57 | 0.43 | 0.85 | 0.08 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+49pp vs league) | |||||
Larne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.43 | 1.19 | 0.62 | 0.79 | 0.21 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.83 | 0.39 | 0.82 | 0.55 | 0.86 | 0.14 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.36 | 0.27 | 2.50 | 0.25 | 0.71 | 0.29 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+43pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 83.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 71.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 8.5 corners | 70.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 70.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/26 | A | 0-4 |
FK Crvena Zvezda| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 21/07/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 17/07/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 22/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-1 |
Larne| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 8-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 24/02/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | 5.5 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | 16.5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 1.4 | 20% | 20% | 20% | 8.0 | 50% | 7.0 | 100% | 24.5 | 100% | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 1.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 12.3 | 67% | 4.3 | 67% | 24.3 | 100% | 66 | 33 | 2 | 30 | 3.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 2.2 | 100% | 25% | 0% | 5.0 | 0% | 4.5 | 100% | 24.5 | 100% | 44 | 26 | 6 | 12 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 5 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 1.8 | 75% | 0% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 50% | 25.8 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 50% |
| 6 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8.3 | 33% | 5.7 | 67% | 21.0 | 0% | 75 | 22 | 27 | 26 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 7 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 6.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | 15.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 49% |
| 8 | Sabah FA | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | 9.0 | 67% | 3.3 | 33% | 21.0 | 33% | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | Celje | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 40% | 20% | 12.5 | 50% | 6.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Aarhus | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3.3 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 13.0 | 100% | 4.3 | 67% | 23.7 | 67% | 37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 1.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 11 | Lyon | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 8.7 | 33% | 2.7 | 0% | 26.0 | 67% | 294 | 138 | 77 | 79 | 1.7 | 1.0 | - |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 7.7 | 0% | 4.3 | 33% | 28.0 | 67% | 62 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Kauno Žalgiris | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 9.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 100% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Celtic | 1 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0% | 15.0 | 0% | 154 | 55 | 38 | 60 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 15 | Shamrock Rovers | 1 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 17 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 18 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 9.7 | 67% | 2.7 | 33% | 26.3 | 100% | 59 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 19 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 21.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 100% | 29.0 | 100% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Sparta Praha | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 11.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 0% | 26.0 | 50% | 97 | 45 | 28 | 24 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 21 | Kairat Almaty | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 100% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 41% |
| 22 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 4.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 23 | Viking | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 12.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 0% | 22.0 | 100% | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 24 | Gornik Zabrze | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 100% | 29 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 25 | Saburtalo | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 26 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 27 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 25.0 | 100% | 82 | 35 | 20 | 26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 28 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8.0 | 50% | 7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 35% |
| 29 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 37 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 30 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 7.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 50% | 31.5 | 100% | 134 | 28 | 48 | 59 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 31 | KI Klaksvik | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | - |
| 32 | Mjallby AIF | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 100% | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 0.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 33 | FC Thun | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 16.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 100% | 29.0 | 100% | 30 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 34 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0% | 25.0 | 100% | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 35 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 36 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0% | 15.0 | 0% | 48 | 17 | 8 | 22 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 37 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 17.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 100% | 26.0 | 100% | 53 | 21 | 8 | 23 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 60% |
| 38 | Larne | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 4.5 | - |