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FK Liepaja vs Auda Result & Analysis

Date: 05/10/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 2-1
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Vs
19%
26%
55%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Auda
Auda
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Auda win✗ Miss
55.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L02L00D01L30W20W31W21W02L01LA·VIK18/07A·AUD21/07H·VAL28/07H·GRO03/08H·FS 10/08A·BFC24/08H·TUK01/09A·MET15/09A·RĪG20/09A·RIG29/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.501.071.470.731.53
vs Stronger (7)0.432.570.672.330.252.75
vs Similar (14)0.861.000.860.860.861.14
vs Weaker (9)1.331.441.601.801.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AudaAuda

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W20W10W10W01L40W22D20W32W11DA·FS 28/07H·CLI31/07H·BFC04/08H·DRI08/08A·DRI15/08A·MET25/08H·RIG14/09H·GRO22/09A·VAL28/09H·TUK02/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.871.350.712.081.08
vs Stronger (5)1.002.001.332.330.501.50
vs Similar (17)1.410.651.200.301.711.14
vs Weaker (8)2.620.621.750.503.500.75
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.8%
Under 3.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
0-1
10.6%
0-2
10.2%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.8%
0-3
6.0%
1-3
5.7%
2-1 ✓
5.3%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
Auda goals →
01234
07.8%11%10%6.0%2.6%
15.2%12%9.8%5.7%2.5%
23.0%5.3%4.7%2.7%1.2%
31.0%1.7%1.5%0.9%0.4%
40.2%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Auda goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
FK Liepaja is 0.58 points worse than Auda in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
FK Liepaja is 0.72 goals worse than Auda in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
FK Liepaja is 0.61 goals worse than Auda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 0.94).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L00D01L10W10W10W10W01L00DA·VIK18/07A·AUD21/07H·VAL28/07H·GRO03/08H·FS 10/08A·BFC24/08H·TUK01/09A·MET15/09A·RĪG20/09A·RIG29/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.600.470.530.470.67
vs Stronger (7)0.291.140.331.000.251.25
vs Similar (14)0.430.710.290.710.570.71
vs Weaker (9)0.670.000.800.000.500.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AudaAuda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D00D10W00D10W11D20W11D00DA·FS 28/07H·CLI31/07H·BFC04/08H·DRI08/08A·DRI15/08A·MET25/08H·RIG14/09H·GRO22/09A·VAL28/09H·TUK02/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.370.710.291.080.46
vs Stronger (5)0.400.800.330.670.501.00
vs Similar (17)0.710.410.700.300.710.57
vs Weaker (8)1.500.001.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D00D20W10W21W11D01L01LA·VIK18/07A·AUD21/07H·VAL28/07H·GRO03/08H·FS 10/08A·BFC24/08H·TUK01/09A·MET15/09A·RĪG20/09A·RIG29/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.900.600.930.270.87
vs Stronger (7)0.141.430.331.330.001.50
vs Similar (14)0.430.290.570.140.290.43
vs Weaker (9)0.671.440.801.800.501.00
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AudaAuda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W10W00D01L30W11D00D21W11DA·FS 28/07H·CLI31/07H·BFC04/08H·DRI08/08A·DRI15/08A·MET25/08H·RIG14/09H·GRO22/09A·VAL28/09H·TUK02/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.500.650.411.000.62
vs Stronger (5)0.601.201.001.670.000.50
vs Similar (17)0.710.240.500.001.000.57
vs Weaker (8)1.120.620.750.501.500.75
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
FK Liepaja's squad is €1m less valuable than Auda's (€5m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Auda have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Auda have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Auda have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
FL wins
4
Draws
1
AUD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja vs Auda · H/A from FL
DateH/AGameScore
21/07/24AAuda Vs FL2-0
19/05/24AAuda Vs FL1-1
09/04/24HFL Vs Auda1-0
21/10/23HFL Vs Auda1-1
30/07/23AAuda Vs FL1-1
07/05/23AAuda Vs FL0-4
14/04/23HFL Vs Auda1-1
23/10/22AAuda Vs FL1-2

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/24ARiga Vs FL1-0
20/09/24ARīgas FS Vs FL2-0
15/09/24AMetta / LU Vs FL1-2
01/09/24HFL Vs Tukums3-1
24/08/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL0-2
10/08/24HFL Vs FS Jelgava3-0
03/08/24HFL Vs Grobiņa0-1
28/07/24HFL Vs Valmiera / BSS0-0
21/07/24AAuda Vs FL2-0
18/07/24AVikingur Gota Vs FL2-0

AudaAuda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/10/24HAUD Vs Tukums1-1
28/09/24AValmiera / BSS Vs AUD2-3
22/09/24HAUD Vs Grobiņa2-0
14/09/24HAUD Vs Riga2-2
25/08/24AMetta / LU Vs AUD0-4
15/08/24ADrita Vs AUD1-0
08/08/24HAUD Vs Drita1-0
04/08/24HAUD Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
31/07/24HAUD Vs Cliftonville FC2-0
28/07/24AFS Jelgava Vs AUD1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.00
HomeDDLWW1.17
AwayLWWLL0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%29%19%
AVG goals2.542.502.58
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %22%17%27%
Scored0.981.040.92
Conceded1.561.461.65
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Auda
Auda
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD1.74
HomeWWDWD1.88
AwayWWLWW1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%58%46%
AVG goals2.422.122.75
Over 1.5 %68%62%75%
Over 2.5 %44%31%58%
Over 3.5 %26%19%33%
Scored1.501.421.58
Conceded0.920.691.17
BTTS44%35%54%
Clean Sheet38%50%25%
Corners---
Cards3.00-3.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3690
81%
2.5
10325+78
3.6
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.90.7
-
2RigaRiga3687
75%
2.4
9923+76
3.4
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.80.6
-
3Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3664
53%
1.8
7539+36
3.2
78%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
4AudaAuda3660
50%
1.7
6334+29
2.7
75%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.80.9
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3642
31%
1.2
4360-17
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.7
-
6FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3639
28%
1.1
3756-19
2.6
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3636
28%
1.0
3476-42
3.1
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
8TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
3881-43
3.3
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.2
-
9GrobiņaGrobiņa3629
22%
0.8
3478-44
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.2
-
10FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3625
17%
0.7
2882-54
3.1
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.82.3
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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