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FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils Result & Analysis

Date: 23/04/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Vs
62%
22%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
61.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W41W00D02L10W03L02L32W11D30WA·AUD23/10H·TUK30/10A·RĪG06/11H·VAL12/11A·VAL18/03H·RIG01/04A·RĪG05/04H·FS 09/04H·AUD14/04A·TUK18/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.331.871.271.331.40
vs Stronger (9)0.331.670.251.500.401.80
vs Similar (10)1.400.901.401.001.400.80
vs Weaker (11)2.821.453.331.332.201.60
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D32W01L01L12L30W23L11D11D05LH·SUP29/10A·MET06/11H·AUD12/11A·TUK12/03A·FS 17/03H·SUP01/04A·MET07/04H·VAL11/04H·RIG15/04H·RĪG19/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.971.071.670.872.27
vs Stronger (9)0.563.110.672.500.334.33
vs Similar (17)0.761.291.121.000.441.56
vs Weaker (4)2.752.253.002.002.672.33
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.3%
Under 1.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.9%
Under 2.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.7%
Under 3.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
1-0 ✓
7.6%
3-1
7.2%
3-0
6.7%
2-2
5.3%
1-2
4.8%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
BFC Daugavpils goals →
01234
04.8%3.3%2.2%0.8%0.2%
17.6%10.0%4.8%1.7%0.5%
29.3%9.9%5.3%1.9%0.5%
36.7%7.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%
43.6%3.9%2.1%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = BFC Daugavpils goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
FK Liepaja is 0.42 points better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
FK Liepaja is 0.33 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
FK Liepaja is 0.06 goals worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W00D00D10W03L00D12L10W20WA·AUD23/10H·TUK30/10A·RĪG06/11H·VAL12/11A·VAL18/03H·RIG01/04A·RĪG05/04H·FS 09/04H·AUD14/04A·TUK18/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.530.800.470.530.60
vs Stronger (9)0.110.780.001.000.200.60
vs Similar (10)0.700.300.600.200.800.40
vs Weaker (11)1.090.551.500.330.600.80
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D00D11D10W12L00D10W02LH·SUP29/10A·MET06/11H·AUD12/11A·TUK12/03A·FS 17/03H·SUP01/04A·MET07/04H·VAL11/04H·RIG15/04H·RĪG19/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.700.530.670.400.73
vs Stronger (9)0.331.000.500.830.001.33
vs Similar (17)0.410.410.380.380.440.44
vs Weaker (4)1.001.252.002.000.671.00
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D21W00D02L00D00D02L20W01L10WA·AUD23/10H·TUK30/10A·RĪG06/11H·VAL12/11A·VAL18/03H·RIG01/04A·RĪG05/04H·FS 09/04H·AUD14/04A·TUK18/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.801.070.800.800.80
vs Stronger (9)0.220.890.250.500.201.20
vs Similar (10)0.700.600.800.800.600.40
vs Weaker (11)1.730.911.831.001.600.80
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D22D01L01L01L20W11D11D01L03LH·SUP29/10A·MET06/11H·AUD12/11A·TUK12/03A·FS 17/03H·SUP01/04A·MET07/04H·VAL11/04H·RIG15/04H·RĪG19/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.270.531.000.471.53
vs Stronger (9)0.222.110.171.670.333.00
vs Similar (17)0.350.880.750.620.001.11
vs Weaker (4)1.751.001.000.002.001.33
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
FK Liepaja's squad is €2m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja's attack is €1m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja and BFC Daugavpils have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
FK Liepaja and BFC Daugavpils have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
4
FL wins
0
Draws
0
BD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils · H/A from FL
DateH/AGameScore
09/10/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL2-3
04/08/22HFL Vs BFC Daugavpils2-1
14/05/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL0-4
06/04/22HFL Vs BFC Daugavpils5-1

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/23ATukums Vs FL0-3
14/04/23HFL Vs Auda1-1
09/04/23HFL Vs FS Jelgava3-2
05/04/23ARīgas FS Vs FL2-0
01/04/23HFL Vs Riga0-3
18/03/23AValmiera / BSS Vs FL0-1
12/11/22HFL Vs Valmiera / BSS0-2
06/11/22ARīgas FS Vs FL0-0
30/10/22HFL Vs Tukums4-1
23/10/22AAuda Vs FL1-2

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/23HBD Vs Rīgas FS0-5
15/04/23HBD Vs Riga1-1
11/04/23HBD Vs Valmiera / BSS1-1
07/04/23AMetta / LU Vs BD3-2
01/04/23HBD Vs Super Nova3-0
17/03/23AFS Jelgava Vs BD2-1
12/03/23ATukums Vs BD1-0
12/11/22HBD Vs Auda0-1
06/11/22AMetta / LU Vs BD2-3
29/10/22HBD Vs Super Nova1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDW1.80
HomeWLLWD1.74
AwayWDWLW1.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%52%57%
AVG goals3.023.043.00
Over 1.5 %76%74%78%
Over 2.5 %61%57%65%
Over 3.5 %39%39%39%
Scored1.801.831.78
Conceded1.221.221.22
BTTS54%61%48%
Clean Sheet28%26%30%
Corners9.5010.508.50
Cards4.004.503.50
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDL0.91
HomeLWDDL1.18
AwayLWLLL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %23%27%19%
AVG goals2.742.592.90
Over 1.5 %74%77%71%
Over 2.5 %49%45%52%
Over 3.5 %35%32%38%
Scored0.881.050.71
Conceded1.861.552.19
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet23%32%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3689
75%
2.5
9618+78
3.2
69%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.70.5
-
2RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8921+68
3.1
81%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.50.6
-
3AudaAuda3658
44%
1.6
4439+5
2.3
72%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.1
-
4Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3653
39%
1.5
4740+7
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651
39%
1.4
5254-2
2.9
89%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.5
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3640
28%
1.1
4257-15
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3839
26%
1.0
4965-16
3.0
76%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3636
25%
1.0
4052-12
2.6
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.4
-
9TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
4783-36
3.6
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Super NovaSuper Nova3614
8%
0.4
2596-71
3.4
86%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.7
-
11SkansteSkanste20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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