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FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava Result & Analysis

Date: 07/10/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 1-1
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Vs
44%
25%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Liepaja win✗ Miss
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L11D11D21W21W20W11D14L13L13LA·FS 21/07A·MET26/07A·AUD30/07A·TUK05/08H·BFC12/08A·SUP28/08A·MET02/09H·VAL17/09A·RIG25/09A·RĪG30/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.671.141.861.811.50
vs Stronger (8)0.502.750.252.750.752.75
vs Similar (9)1.561.221.201.602.000.75
vs Weaker (13)2.081.311.801.402.251.25
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D32W10W03L22D20W53W00D01L11DH·SUP09/07H·FK 21/07A·MET31/07A·AUD06/08A·VAL13/08H·TUK26/08A·RIG01/09H·BFC16/09H·RĪG24/09A·SUP01/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.701.441.311.142.14
vs Stronger (16)1.121.941.121.501.122.38
vs Similar (11)1.451.451.670.831.202.20
vs Weaker (3)1.671.332.002.001.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.6%
No
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.3%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
3-1
5.4%
0-0
5.0%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
FS Jelgava goals →
01234
05.0%4.8%4.2%2.0%0.7%
16.0%11%7.4%3.6%1.3%
26.3%9.1%6.6%3.2%1.2%
33.7%5.4%3.9%1.9%0.7%
41.6%2.4%1.7%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = FS Jelgava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
FK Liepaja is 0.31 points better than FS Jelgava in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
FK Liepaja is 0.28 goals better than FS Jelgava in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
FK Liepaja is 0.08 goals better than FS Jelgava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.58).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W01L21W11D20W01L02L02L02LA·FS 21/07A·MET26/07A·AUD30/07A·TUK05/08H·BFC12/08A·SUP28/08A·MET02/09H·VAL17/09A·RIG25/09A·RĪG30/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.500.930.750.75
vs Stronger (8)0.001.380.001.500.001.25
vs Similar (9)0.670.560.600.600.750.50
vs Weaker (13)1.000.690.800.801.120.62
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D10W02L01L10W32W00D01L00DH·SUP09/07H·FK 21/07A·MET31/07A·AUD06/08A·VAL13/08H·TUK26/08A·RIG01/09H·BFC16/09H·RĪG24/09A·SUP01/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.730.620.500.501.00
vs Stronger (16)0.501.000.380.620.621.38
vs Similar (11)0.450.450.670.330.200.60
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.500.501.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L10W00D10W00D10W12L11D11DA·FS 21/07A·MET26/07A·AUD30/07A·TUK05/08H·BFC12/08A·SUP28/08A·MET02/09H·VAL17/09A·RIG25/09A·RĪG30/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.830.640.931.060.75
vs Stronger (8)0.501.380.251.250.751.50
vs Similar (9)0.890.670.601.001.250.25
vs Weaker (13)1.080.621.000.601.120.62
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D21W00D01L21W10W21W00D00D11DH·SUP09/07H·FK 21/07A·MET31/07A·AUD06/08A·VAL13/08H·TUK26/08A·RIG01/09H·BFC16/09H·RĪG24/09A·SUP01/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.970.810.810.641.14
vs Stronger (16)0.620.940.750.880.501.00
vs Similar (11)1.001.001.000.501.001.60
vs Weaker (3)0.331.000.501.500.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
FK Liepaja's squad is €2m more valuable than FS Jelgava's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja's attack is €1m more valuable than FS Jelgava's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja and FS Jelgava have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
FK Liepaja and FS Jelgava have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
FL wins
0
Draws
2
FJ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava · H/A from FL
DateH/AGameScore
21/07/23AFS Jelgava Vs FL3-2
22/05/23AFS Jelgava Vs FL2-1
09/04/23HFL Vs FS Jelgava3-2

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23ARīgas FS Vs FL3-1
25/09/23ARiga Vs FL3-1
17/09/23HFL Vs Valmiera / BSS1-4
02/09/23AMetta / LU Vs FL1-1
28/08/23ASuper Nova Vs FL0-2
12/08/23HFL Vs BFC Daugavpils2-1
05/08/23ATukums Vs FL1-2
30/07/23AAuda Vs FL1-1
26/07/23AMetta / LU Vs FL1-1
21/07/23AFS Jelgava Vs FL3-2

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/23ASuper Nova Vs FJ1-1
24/09/23HFJ Vs Rīgas FS0-1
16/09/23HFJ Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
01/09/23ARiga Vs FJ3-5
26/08/23HFJ Vs Tukums2-0
13/08/23AValmiera / BSS Vs FJ2-2
06/08/23AAuda Vs FJ3-0
31/07/23AMetta / LU Vs FJ0-1
21/07/23HFJ Vs FK Liepaja3-2
09/07/23HFJ Vs Super Nova2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.52
HomeWWDWL1.57
AwayWWDLL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%41%
AVG goals3.163.223.11
Over 1.5 %86%83%89%
Over 2.5 %64%65%63%
Over 3.5 %36%35%37%
Scored1.621.611.63
Conceded1.541.611.48
BTTS66%65%67%
Clean Sheet16%9%22%
Corners10.0010.509.00
Cards4.004.503.00
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLD1.74
HomeDWWDL2.00
AwayWLDWD1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%61%44%
AVG goals3.042.873.19
Over 1.5 %78%78%78%
Over 2.5 %56%52%59%
Over 3.5 %40%35%44%
Scored1.781.741.81
Conceded1.261.131.37
BTTS44%48%41%
Clean Sheet40%43%37%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3689
75%
2.5
9618+78
3.2
69%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.70.5
-
2RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8921+68
3.1
81%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.50.6
-
3AudaAuda3658
44%
1.6
4439+5
2.3
72%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.1
-
4Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3653
39%
1.5
4740+7
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651
39%
1.4
5254-2
2.9
89%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.5
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3640
28%
1.1
4257-15
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3839
26%
1.0
4965-16
3.0
76%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3636
25%
1.0
4052-12
2.6
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.4
-
9TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
4783-36
3.6
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Super NovaSuper Nova3614
8%
0.4
2596-71
3.4
86%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.7
-
11SkansteSkanste20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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