The contest between FK Liepaja and Grobiņa is razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win at 35%. Home, 34% and draw, 31%, trail closely, leaving no clear favourite. The expected total is 2.3 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single score the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% chance. FK Liepaja, playing at home against a similarly-rated side, averages one goal scored and 1.8 conceded, while Grobiņa, on the road, averages 2.22 scored and 0.89 conceded. The model’s selection list includes Under 3.5 with an 80.3% probability, labelled a hit. The match-result probabilities are 34% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 35% for an away win. Each figure appears only once, and the analysis stays strictly factual.
Results analysis
The upset came early as FK Liepaja, riding a win in their last five, overturned the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped an away win with a 35% probability, but the result was a 3-0 home triumph. The prediction was wrong. The model’s other selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark with an 80.3% chance. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 14.6%, followed by 0-0 and 0-1, yet the match produced a clean sheet and a three-goal haul. FK Liepaja’s recent form, highlighted by a win over Riga, proved decisive, while Grobiņa’s away record of 2.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded did not translate into victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Liepaja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.60
0.85
1.46
1.00
1.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
3.00
0.50
2.00
0.75
3.50
vs Similar (11)
1.00
1.45
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
1.08
0.83
1.00
1.14
1.14
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.17
2.07
1.29
1.94
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
2.00
0.00
2.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (17)
2.41
1.06
2.62
1.25
2.22
0.89
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
0.88
2.67
0.33
2.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.9%
Under 2.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.6%
0-1
10.4%
1-0
10.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.6%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
Grobiņa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.7%
2.6%
0.7%
1
10%
15%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
6.6%
7.5%
4.3%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.5%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
FK Liepaja is 0.28 points better than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 0.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
FK Liepaja is 0.08 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
FK Liepaja is 0.61 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.38
0.54
0.59
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.82
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.31
0.50
0.00
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.00
0.79
1.06
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
1.18
0.59
1.12
0.88
1.22
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.50
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.83
0.46
0.92
0.41
0.76
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.64
0.60
0.80
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.31
0.77
0.33
1.00
0.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.50
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.20
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.24
0.47
1.50
0.38
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
FK Liepaja's squad is €2m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Grobiņa have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Grobiņa have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Grobiņa have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
Valmiera / BSS
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Metta / LU
Tukums
FS Jelgava