FK Liepaja’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just 0.86 goals per game against similarly ranked opponents, while Grobiņa struggles on the road, allowing 1.5 goals on average. The model favours a home win, with a 37% chance, a draw at 32%, and an away win at 31%. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a tight match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with 14.7% probability. The overall probability that the total will be 2 goals is 28%. The suggested pick is Under 3.5, with an 81.8% chance of hitting. FK Liepaja’s recent form shows a win out of five, while Grobiņa also comes off a win, suggesting both sides are ready to press. The model’s selection for the match outcome remains a home win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as FK Liepaja, fresh from a win, failed to hold off Grobiņa, who also entered after a victory. The final score was 0-1, an away win that contradicted the model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, which had a 37% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The only other selection was Under 3.5 goals, with an 81.8% probability, and it hit as the match produced just one goal. No other picks were made. The match ended with Grobiņa securing the win, leaving the model’s prediction incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Liepaja win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa win✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Liepaja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.63
0.82
1.53
0.62
1.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
3.00
0.50
2.50
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.14
1.00
0.86
0.71
1.43
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
1.50
0.83
1.67
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.53
1.73
1.07
1.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
2.62
0.00
3.25
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.36
2.12
1.25
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
1.12
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.1%
Under 1.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.0%
Under 2.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.2%
Under 3.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.3%
1-0
11.4%
0-1 ✓
10.2%
2-1
7.8%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
6.0%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
Grobiņa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.0%
2.1%
0.5%
1
11%
15%
7.0%
2.4%
0.6%
2
7.4%
7.8%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
3
2.9%
3.0%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
FK Liepaja is 0.28 points better than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 0.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
FK Liepaja is 0.08 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
FK Liepaja is 0.61 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.41
0.47
0.38
0.85
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.25
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.71
0.29
0.57
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
0.50
0.10
0.67
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.53
1.07
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.12
0.00
1.75
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.71
0.62
0.88
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.00
0.41
1.06
0.23
0.92
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.67
0.25
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.43
0.71
0.29
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (10)
0.20
1.40
0.17
1.67
0.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
1.00
0.67
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.64
1.50
0.38
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
FK Liepaja's squad is €2m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Grobiņa have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Grobiņa have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Grobiņa have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
Valmiera / BSS
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Metta / LU
Tukums
FS Jelgava