FK Liepaja face Riga with the model’s favourite outcome a Riga win. The odds lean heavily toward an away victory, with a 60% chance of Riga triumph, 25% for a draw and 15% for FK Liepaja. The expected total is 2.6 goals, centring around a 2-goal total that carries a 26% probability. The most likely scoreline is a 0-1 defeat for the hosts, a 12.3% chance that Riga will finish with a single goal to FK Liepaja’s none. FK Liepaja’s home form shows they average 0.5 goals scored and concede 2.0 against stronger opposition, while Riga’s away record against weaker teams yields 2.17 goals scored and only 0.92 conceded. Suggested picks include an Over 1.5 with a 74.4% probability and an Under 3.5 with 73.5%. The match is poised for a tight contest, but the data favours Riga.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Riga, failed to secure the win the model had predicted with a 60% probability. FK Liepaja’s return to form, coming off a win, kept the game tight and the match finished 1-1, a draw that the model had not favoured. The model’s selection for an away win was therefore wrong. The model’s other picks also proved accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 74.4% probability, and Under 3.5 goals hit with a 73.5% probability. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely score of 0-1 or 0-2, each close to the 26% probability for the most likely total of two goals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Liepaja win✗ Miss
14.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga win✗ Miss
60.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Liepaja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.60
0.92
1.33
1.00
1.78
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
3.00
0.50
2.00
0.80
3.40
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.30
1.25
1.50
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
1.08
0.83
1.00
1.14
1.14
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.90
2.06
0.88
1.86
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.75
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
2.23
0.77
2.29
0.64
2.17
0.92
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
12.3%
0-2
12.1%
1-1 ✓
11.7%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
0-3
7.3%
1-3
5.8%
1-0
4.8%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
Riga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
12%
12%
7.3%
3.3%
1
4.8%
12%
9.6%
5.8%
2.6%
2
2.3%
4.2%
3.8%
2.3%
1.0%
3
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Riga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
FK Liepaja is 1.33 points worse than Riga in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 2.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
FK Liepaja is 1.72 goals worse than Riga in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 2.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
FK Liepaja is 0.92 goals worse than Riga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 0.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.42
0.42
0.56
0.89
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.57
0.00
1.00
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.60
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.31
0.50
0.00
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.27
0.75
0.38
0.71
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
0.85
0.23
0.86
0.36
0.83
0.08
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.50
0.92
0.44
0.89
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.43
0.50
1.00
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.70
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
0.31
0.77
0.33
1.00
0.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.63
1.31
0.50
1.14
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.38
0.54
1.43
0.29
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Riga · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas Aurélio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
FK Liepaja's squad is €11m less valuable than Riga's (€5m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja's attack is €5m less valuable than Riga's (€2m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja's midfield is €2m less valuable than Riga's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
FK Liepaja's defence is €4m less valuable than Riga's (€2m vs €6m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Valmiera / BSS
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Metta / LU
Tukums
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava